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IMB Imperial Brands Plc

1,858.50
12.00 (0.65%)
01 Dec 2023 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Imperial Brands Plc LSE:IMB London Ordinary Share GB0004544929 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  12.00 0.65% 1,858.50 1,110,733 16:35:20
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
1,854.50 1,855.50 1,870.00 1,844.50 1,855.00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Cigarettes 32.48B 2.33B 2.5937 7.15 16.64B
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
18:04:12 O 150 1,855.686 GBX

Imperial Brands (IMB) Latest News (4)

Imperial Brands (IMB) Discussions and Chat

Imperial Brands Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
30/11/202316:01Imperial Brands PLC (formerly Imperial Tobacco)8,426
31/7/202013:48IMPERIAL BRANDS2
26/9/201907:25Imperial Brands Podcast on Trading Update-

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Posted at 01/12/2023 08:20 by Imperial Brands Daily Update
Imperial Brands Plc is listed in the Cigarettes sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker IMB. The last closing price for Imperial Brands was 1,846.50p.
Imperial Brands currently has 897,544,543 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Imperial Brands is £16,644,963,550.
Imperial Brands has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 7.15.
This morning IMB shares opened at 1,855p
Posted at 21/11/2023 19:16 by laurence llewelyn binliner
#Saltaire - 14.11.2023 - enhanced shareholder returns with 4.0% dividend increase as well as a 10% increase in share buybacks, total FY24 returns of GBP2.4BN equivalent to c15% of total market value..

I would like to think that will translate to a +15% share price rise over FY24 too from the GBP18 share price on the day..? target of GBP20.70..?, our XD 23rd will pull us back a little 1st though..
Posted at 14/11/2023 14:22 by marktime1231
Hmmmn. Not sure whether I am pleased with that or not, but no real surprises since the trading report.

I certainly don't like the repeated use of the word "accelerated" to describe progress which in reality is flat to modest, albeit the best we can hope for in the death stick business. Bomhard trying to talk the numbers and himself up. Progress in net debt reduction stalled in the £8-8.4B range also disappointing.

The idea that a 4-5% improvement in net profit plus a 4-5% reduction in shares only translates to a 4-5% dividend increase is hard to square, especially when inflation has been well above. Surplus cash flow is all going in to an expanded buyback already underway, reflecting how cheap they think the share price is perhaps, but the share price has not responded so positively this time. Don't tell fenners but for now it does not feel like we are getting a fair return either way.

Despite all of which the yield here remains excellent and the continuing share reduction will embed that. So despite the slight disappointments I will look to add on share price weakness before ex-div, I dithered at 1725 hoping for something lower and will be watching for another chance at that level.
Posted at 13/11/2023 09:26 by kiwi2007
Sell BAT buy IMB?

Wall Street Journal: Pretty good run down on the state of the market.


Big Tobacco Can No Longer Name Its Price — Heard on the Street — WSJ
Nov 5, 202301:00 GMT+13
By Carol Ryan

America's cigarette market is in flux, and new smoking habits threaten to singe makers of pricey brands the most.

One of the attractions of investing in tobacco stocks has been cigarette manufacturers' amazing ability to continuously grow their profits through price hikes, even though the industry is in long-term decline. This helps cigarette companies pay generous dividends to their shareholders.

In a potential red flag, though, cigarette profits at Marlboro-maker Altria fell from a year earlier in its latest quarter. The company wasn't able to raise prices enough to offset falling sales. The same thing happened in 2018, when Juul e-cigarettes were rapidly grabbing market share from old-school smokes.

The problem for tobacco companies is that the American cigarette market is shrinking faster than anyone expected. Over the three months through September, the number of sticks sold across the industry fell 8% year-over-year, almost double long-term averages. Smoking trends became less predictable during the pandemic and never settled back to normal.

Something has happened to underlying demand. Altria thinks illegal disposable vapes are now taking customers from cigarette companies. The market for these vapes is booming, growing 20% so far this year according to Barclays estimates. If Altria is right about the trend, better enforcement by the Food and Drug Administration could help to stabilize cigarette volumes.

But the tobacco industry's customer base is also getting older and dwindling as fewer young people take up smoking. Two decades ago, a fifth of U.S. smokers were aged 50 or older. This figure will reach 50% by 2030 according to Vivien Azer, analyst at TD Cowen.

Expensive cigarettes such as Marlboro or Newport, which is made by British American Tobacco, face a double whammy. Smokers have also become much more sensitive to prices as inflation remains sticky, leading to widespread switching to cheaper brands.

The difference between a $5 and $9 pack of cigarettes is partly the quality of the tobacco blend. But smokers of "premium" cigarettes also pay through the nose for branding and posher packaging such as embossed lettering and thick cardboard boxes that feel more luxurious. At a national average of $8.77-a-pack including taxes, Marlboro is now 43% more expensive than cheaper rivals, according to Altria data, compared with 31% five years ago.

This fat price gap is a gift to smaller brands that are grabbing market share. According to Vector Group, whose Montego brand is now the biggest discount cigarette in America, volumes of the cheapest cigarettes rose 15% over the 52 weeks through September, compared with an 11% decline for the priciest smokes. Imperial Brands is also benefiting from smokers trading down. The London-listed company has grown its share of the U.S. cigarette market from 7.7% in late 2018 to 9.2% today, according to Bernstein estimates.

Big tobacco companies are scrambling to hang on to smokers. BAT cut the price of its Lucky Strike cigarettes by 50% in 2021. The strategy appears to be working, as Lucky Strike has grown its share of the U.S. market to 4% from almost nothing in two years, based on Bernstein analysis. BAT is still losing share of the U.S. market overall, however.

Altria won't do anything as dramatic. Thirty years ago, the company cut the cost of Marlboros by 20% as a price gap had opened up between it and cheaper brands. The shock move tanked its share price by more than a quarter and became known as Marlboro Friday.

Marlboro's owner hopes the worst may be over. Altria executives point out that the market share of deep discount cigarettes has been stable for three consecutive quarters. But slowing their march has been expensive. Altria is offering promotions to Marlboro smokers to boost volumes. It also launched a cheaper line of cigarettes, Marlboro Black Gold, which accounts for around one-tenth of the Marlboro franchise overall. These moves help, but at the expense of profits.

Major tobacco companies face a delicate balancing act. They need to squeeze as much income as possible from traditional cigarettes so that they can invest in new smokeless products like heated tobacco sticks or oral nicotine pouches that are increasingly the industry's future.

That task will be much harder so long as cheaper cigarettes and illegal vapes are inhaling their market share.

Write to Carol Ryan at carol.ryan@wsj.com
Posted at 04/11/2023 08:38 by laurence llewelyn binliner
14.11.2023 for the FY results and next 2 dividends, we will see what we get but the progressive policy over at BATS does look a little stronger..

However, taking our dividends and the next buyback together, we can expect capital returns to shareholders to exceed GBP2.4BN in the coming fiscal year, representing around 17% of the MCAP, so around 50/50 to come back in dividends and share price appreciation due to shrinking the share capital..?

#Cassini, the share price over at BATS has taken a deeper hit compared to IMB, around -10% more so there could be headroom there..

#1Knocker, I picked these up in the early 2020 lows and they are doing just fine cranking out the dividends, the share price gain is nice to look at but is not really material if you are never going to sell the shares, another 7 years and they will owe me nothing..

#Saltaire111, similar strategy, just hold and hoover up the dividends, but I may add some BATS too as they do look like great value at GBP25 and a 9% return.. :o)
Posted at 24/9/2023 11:08 by fenners66
I did draw attention to New Zealand enacting that anti smoking law about a year ago and citing the possibility of more countries bringing it in (including the UK) as another reason of why the buyback is a waste of money.

Sentiment and supply and demand drive share prices - the "if all other things are equal" theory that the share price should rise if there are less shares - is just that a theory - which mostly fails in the real world - because all other things are not equal.

IF this legislation is brought in , here and other western economies then I guess the share price will fall, regardless of IMB's ability to generate profits and cash for the foreseeable future.

Investment funds like growth - sure they play their games but of all the income stocks in long term declining industries how often do their share prices actually rise?

The directors might say its about managing long term decline in share price - I'd say give actual shareholders , not traders looking to get out , their cash as dividends.

And stop calling share buybacks shareholder distributions - they are paying for people to be removed as shareholders - if they don't want the shares let the market do that job.
Posted at 06/6/2023 11:33 by marktime1231
BAT reporting unexpected loss of tobacco trade in the US. Because vaping, which is still loss making and is not "more profitable" btw, is up or because rivals like IMB are taking market share or ...

Logista performance and its contribution to IMB in mainland Europe was commented on.

IMB has not thrown itself (eggs ?) blindly at vaping, Bomhard has done the opposite in fact. The strategy here is to prioritise tobacco in five key markets and not to sink profits in weak markets nor to push the development of vaping markets and brands. Instead the strategy is to ride on the backs of bigger companies like BAT who can afford the investment in next gen products, rather than trying to compete with them for market and brand leadership. Vaping is facing all sorts of regulatory interference but it is probably the future and still worth IMB participating.

We hope this strategy is working out, and that milking the cash flow instead of investing in the business will pay off, putting surplus towards debt repayment and stock reduction. Except that Bomhard's narrative of "accelerated" returns is not reflected in financials, not yet anyway, we are treading water. He says revenue / profit growth from restructuring etc is still on its way. The market not impressed at halfway and the share price has lost £3, there is reasonable doubt that H2 will be as good as promised. We are looking for 5%+ eps growth and maybe that sort of dividend progression too.

On the one hand the share price crash means the buyback got much cheaper, on the other hand it reignited calls for cash to put in to debt reduction or dividends instead. If IMB continues to shrink profitably it also increases the chance of being subsumed in to one of the giants. Maybe that is the real end game of Bomhard's five year plan.
Posted at 18/5/2023 11:55 by fenners66
so marktime1231 you are proposing (what we all know) that buybacks do not have a lasting effect on share prices.

Demand volume on any given day if greater than supply has an effect on the share price at that time.

Outside of the supply and demand fluctuations - fundamentals , markets in general, market specific sentiment and results have an impact on demand for the share and therefore share price.

So good we are agreed , forget all about share prices going up because of buybacks.

Concentrate on what attracts people to want to buy more of the shares. The key words are
BUY MORE because once they have bought them they no longer impact the price ,its the demand for more that matters.

Which conversely is the the opposite to buybacks which is fulfilling the wish to own less shares.

You are correct scobak - we can prove the maths of impact on debt , interest cost ,profits and of returns to actual shareholders and they still will take the sentiment of buybacks instead.
Posted at 23/11/2022 20:14 by wunderbar
It’s almost 18 months since I posted on this bb. Thankfully there’s been a marked improvement in both sector sentiment and share price performance during this time. IMB’s share price increased 5% in 2021 having previously suffered five consecutive years of decline. YTD 2022, share price is up 33%, currently 2185p. I have to give credit where it’s due - Stefan Bomhard has [so far] executed his plan to perfection. He’s done what he set out to do in the first two years of his five year turnaround plan - reduce debt, increase market share of key brands, rein in NGP spending, and initiate £1bn share buyback [5% of company]. What’s so refreshing about this is the fact it’s been done in the proposed time frame. Of course IMB’s [unforeseen] forced exit from Russia was a big setback, resulting in a whopping £463m hit. Nonetheless, this didn’t stop the business becoming a lean mean cash machine.

Whilst I don’t post on here too often I do read posts regularly and feel compelled to agree with Marktime1231’s recent comments about persons on here moaning about the £1bn buyback and negligible dividend increase. On the subject of buybacks I have to say I’m not a fan [unless done on grand scale at knock down price], they seldom reward shareholders directly, more often than not deemed to be a waste of money in the eyes of most ordinary investors, many of whom would rather have the cash. Saying that though, the market wanted a buyback and got exactly that, the sheer size of it had a positive impact on the share price. So, imagine my dismay on the day of the announcement [6 Oct - share price closed up 2.5%, was up 4.5% at one stage], rather than see a tide of joyous comments celebrating the soaring share price I was shocked to read many posters on here instead honing in on the buyback news with a barrage of negative comments and completely ignoring the rise altogether. Unbelievable I thought. The way I saw it, the market’s happy therefore shareholders should be. Fact is, since the buyback announcement, the share price has risen 13% [acknowledging full year results also contributed]. At the end of the day I for one don’t care what propels the share price as long it’s going in the right direction.

In the weeks running up to full year results I was surprised to see a few investors on here expecting a large dividend increase of perhaps 5-10%. My initial thought was what planet are these people on. As it transpires the dividend was increased by 1.5%, and again this attracted some negative comments. Came as no surprise to me though. After all, with a current yield of c.6.5% it’s already one of the highest in the FTSE100. And noting it was the reckless dividend policy of previous management that was partly responsible for IMB’s share price decline in recent years. Increasing the dividend c.10% year on year was simply not sustainable as far as the market was concerned, doing so while profits were being squeezed and debt rising was illogical, and so the market eventually got what it wanted in May 2020, seven months after CEO Alison Cooper’s departure, with the interim management team announcing the company would be cutting the dividend by 33% as it sought to prioritise debt repayments [no doubt as instructed by Bomhard prior to his arrival]. Imperial have since implemented a more progress dividend policy, as demonstrated by recent 1.5% increase. Next year I'd expect low to mid single digit growth.

Having made my initial purchase in IMB five years ago [Nov 2017, terrible timing], my investment finally swung into profit for the first time ever when we climbed above 2000p last month [albeit on a technicality if I include dividends]. My biggest mistake was averaging down too many times between 2200p & 2800p during 2018/2019, completely reckless behaviour, all in the false belief this supposed safe-haven FTSE100 stalwart surely couldn’t go any lower. Needless to say it did, big time! Bottomed out c.1200p in 2020. Having made some astute top up’s c.1400-1500p in 2021 my average is now 2400p. As I say, technically speaking my investment is now in profit. However, my ISA says different, currently showing a double digit loss [obviously not recognising divi payouts]. Being a stubborn SOB I’m determined to bail out at 2400p and claw back my entire investment stake [call it a matter of principle]. Given my exit point is only 215 points away it’s not inconceivable we won’t see this target within 3-6 months given current momentum, although tomorrow is ex-div [49.31p] so will be interesting to see how well this holds up. I might even try and trade the last couple hundred points. For the first time in a very long time I’ve started to believe I can exit this stock financially unscathed [not so sure about emotionally unscathed]. I wonder how many other regulars on here contemplating bailing out on higher price. Spud? Marktime?

I sincerely hope the next time I post on this bb is to announce the euphoric moment of finally exiting this stock. Until then.
Posted at 12/11/2022 08:07 by jrphoenixw2
#7877/Marktime: 'Wow so £1.50 of the recent IMB share price was a defensive premium? Or has IMB been oversold as punters scramble to release cash to catch the risk-on express train? Can't be too disappointed, while we have a buyback going on.'
---------------------

Haha pithy yet a good summation.
It seems that (reportedly) this week saw a Defensive (+non ESG-sectors?) sell-off. Good time for passive/retiree/long-term investors to top-up on firmer yield?
Posted at 11/11/2022 12:40 by marktime1231
Wow so £1.50 of the recent IMB share price was a defensive premium? Or has IMB been oversold as punters scramble to release cash to catch the risk-on express train? Can't be too disappointed, while we have a buyback going on.
Imperial Brands share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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