Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 11/5/2019 09:09

Interesting thread - and interesting yields - However over last 10 years not all tobacco coys equal. All up significantly but not as much as the market.

Altria +213%
Philip Morris +98%
Japan Tobacco + 78%
BATS +71%
IMPS +35%

Dividends not factored into the above - If done would be a better picture.

[matchupitchu] 11/5/2019 00:08

Gotta say....the price drop seems overdone to me....I might bag a few next week....c10% fc dividend....still very profitable....cash generative....hmmm

[glavey] 10/5/2019 16:01

"I don't have a filter button."

Fortunately I do.

[gabsterx] 10/5/2019 15:25

"Imperial Brands is not in managed decline, CFO says"

While I wouldn't really expect him to state the opposite, I see the share price moving much more on sentiment than fundamentals, remember the near 40% price collapse in early 2008 (before the financial crisis) that now looks like a blip in the rear view mirror.

hxxps://youtu.be/ZMmJz6wK-Qc

[spud] 10/5/2019 10:43

'Avoid loud & aggressive persons for they are vexations to the spirit'. Shame if you kowtow to the aggressor though..spud

[warranty] 10/5/2019 09:04

We shouldn't also ignore the possibility of medicinal cigarettes in future which would need to be tightly controlled as a drug. That could bring a whole new growth phase for cogarette makers.

[gordogecks] 09/5/2019 17:21

irenekent,

"Just remember that if you ban something you can't tax it. If it shortens peoples lifespan it saves on care costs"

So true! You are clearly ahead of the curve.

[technowiz] 09/5/2019 16:41

closed at 2227.50?? +47

thats criminal just like yesterday the closing UT trade nowhere near the last trades that were at 22.15..

made a quick profit on 250 shares i paid 21.58 this morning and sold at 22.22

SP did well today considering the markets tanked.

[irenekent] 09/5/2019 16:00

Just remember that if you ban something you can't tax it. If it shortens peoples lifespan it saves on care costs. Look at London; Khan's solution to air pollution is to tax cars with congestion charges etc., not to ban them. If he really wanted to sort the problem he'd ban diesel & petrol cars immediately but ULEM is just a cynical money raising exercise like parking meters.

[meijiman] 09/5/2019 12:41

Well I'm sure the yield support limits the downside here..notwithstanding some cash flow pressures. Being progressive is a sign of confidence. Sure there are some issues but what company doesn't have some of those.............

[essentialinvestor] 09/5/2019 11:25

Graham, I think the sector is finally being disrupted by technology,
and that's what arguably makes this different to 2000.

Compounding this is the sector, by and large, went on an acquisition splurge
and balance sheets were significantly geared up. Remember just a few years back
BATS and IMB were aggressively buying back share reducing their share count.


I'm sure there will be ample trading opportunities here for those who can read the moves.

[grahamite2] 09/5/2019 11:16

Indeed EI, but what I was thinking specifically was that in the dotcom boom, a large part of the world's capital was sucked into chasing a rainbow and out of productive investment. The corollary of that was that what remained of that capital would go back where it had been before when the rainbow vanished. I don't know that there is now any similar large pool of capital that must eventually come back to tobacco and the like.

[stewart64] 09/5/2019 10:58

Essential investor I think with a 9.5% dividend and price to earnings of 8 the gradual obsolescence of big Tobacco is priced in. I'd be far more worried about some of the richly priced consumer giants like Unilever...where does a price to earnings return by the time most of us will be dead fit in with the Unilevers of this world. I never buy brands, same thing you can get non Unilever in a plain box for a quarter of the price.

[essentialinvestor] 09/5/2019 10:14

It's not a sound comparison.
You can choose from hundreds of generic vape products and liquids online.
Ability to buy online has also broken big tobacco's stranglehold on distribution.

[grahamite2] 09/5/2019 10:11

Citywire:

Imperial Brands: all to play for in second half, says Hargreaves

Half year results are slightly ahead at Imperial Brands (IMB) but the second half is where the real progress will be seen, says Hargreaves Lansdown.

The tobacco giant reported operating profits slightly ahead at £1.6 billion in the first half of the year, and net revenues were up 3.8%, driven by more than 200% growth in next generation products.

Steve Clayton, manager of the HL Select UK Income Shares fund, said the interims were ‘solid enough’ but ‘the second half is when we expect to see the group deliver most of the progress for the year’.

He said while Imperial was making ‘good progress’ in next generation products, which tobacco companies are increasingly reliant on, the ‘range of expectations for the next years is wide’.

‘Imperial look to be performing well, at an early stage in this journey,’ he said.

‘Dividends rise by 10%, in line with Imperial’s policy. A yield of almost 9% shows that many investors see risks attached, so it is critical that Imperial delivers on their promise of a stronger second half.’

One of the comments was a reminder that all tobacco companies had ridiculously high yields in the dotcom boom, but I'm not sure that's a sound comparison.

[spud] 09/5/2019 09:31

IK - IMB already has its foot in the Hash Oil door. spud

[philanderer] 09/5/2019 09:18

irene , really hadn't thought of that , makes sense.

[p0pper] 09/5/2019 07:42

Very good points Irenekent

[irenekent] 09/5/2019 07:26

It occurs to me that if the US makes it too difficult for youth to access vapes they will probably go back to cigarettes. Look what happened with prohibition. Also if the US carries on legalising cannabis, I'm sure that big tobacco will be in the forefront of this new business.