Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[gabsterx] 09/5/2019 07:10

Sales of NGP were 148M in the first half, it looks like they'll easily surpass the lower bound of their estimates by 2019, I'd estimate somewhere around 600M in 2020.

[essentialinvestor] 09/5/2019 00:29

In 2017 IMB estimated a range of between £250-£1.5 Billion on NGP revenue
for the year 2020. Looking at today's H1 numbers, they are going to get nowhere
near the upper end of that guidline. Meanwhile tobacco volume has fallen
by over 6%.

It looks pretty clear why the market is concerned, NGP remains loss making
and atm shows little sign of taking up the slack of traditional tobacco volume declines.

If traditional stick volume continues it's longer term decline, you ultimately
reach an inflexion point where profitability starts to be hit.
Given the net debt, unless you see NGP revenue and more importantly profitability
take off, there may be trouble ahead medium term.

Would expect a further sell down of their Logista stake.

[philanderer] 08/5/2019 23:30

Market report:

"Shares in British tobacco giant Imperial Brands fall to a five-year low amid 'vaping' backlash in the U.S."

[creditcrunchies] 08/5/2019 23:03

Trouble is this dissing of tobacco isn't new they've been through it all before decades ago yet they still generate huge revenues. BATS is the same going through falling tobacco sales yet they manage to push revenues up year on year. The net profit is projected to be double 2013 (SP high 3750) numbers in 2020. So when you see these tobacco's at this type of discount their time will come when everybody is focussing on a different sector. It's just knowing the point when it's getting too cheap to ignore

[minerve 2] 08/5/2019 22:22

steeplejack

You try executing Buffett's investment approach and philosophy today and you'll find it isn't executable. Even Berkshire is flatlining and whilst he has the excuse of size he has many other advantages that we don't have.

It shows his philosophy no longer works in the current market by buying Amazon. It is outside of his sphere of competence (his own words) and isn't anything close to one of his previous de facto investments

The principles of decent and sound investing are crushed by the crony capitalist system we now find ourselves in.

Something will have to give and it will be more than a few swear words that will be spilt.

[lukehold] 08/5/2019 21:39

Share price dropped 2% as she was speaking, didn't look good

[steeplejack] 08/5/2019 20:42

Hi Minerve 2

Warren Buffets Investment approach,his philosophy,is as valid today as it ever was.Benefit of hindsight can make us cynical about the likes of Warren Buffet and his unique insights.There are always investment opportunities staring us in the face whether it be a full car park for all to see at Wall Marts to an Amazon or Apple emerging from near bankrucy.if you’d bought those latter two at the outset of the 21st century,you’d have made a fortune.Not difficult really to see the latters unique appeal as you used your iPhone to order an online delivery.Buffet is all about cash flow analysis (referencing to his attraction to insurance companies).Stick with cash flow analysis and you will avoid the extremes that typify tech and mining booms and cruise happily in the middle of the road.Agreed,you no longer have the nifty fifty and you might have to negotiate the complications of looking further afield than the US as a breeding ground for solid equity investment but the world remains cluttered with opportunities that will appear so very obvious with the passage of time.Sadly for the tobaccos(stalwarts for income funds over the last fifty years)they are now being brought low by political interference.Buffet has always avoided stocks that could be adversely affected by political interference.Buffet isn’t the quick moving pirate of old for the simple reason that he manages an enormous amount of money but his basic premise of ‘cash flow’ (first and foremost)will never become outdated.

[spud] 08/5/2019 20:26

Expect bounce tomorrow spud

[philanderer] 08/5/2019 19:54

video:

CEO Alison Cooper speaking with @annmarie at Bloomberg TV earlier on today:

[philanderer] 08/5/2019 19:51

THE LIBERUM VIEW

Liberum Capital is staying positive on Imperial Brands, reiterating its ‘buy’ rating on the stock today. The broker states that ‘Imperial is our top pick in tobacco and currently trades on trough multiples as the group nears the end of its multi-year transformation into a focused brand builder. This “shrink to grow” strategy is driving better quality growth in key markets.'

[philanderer] 08/5/2019 19:49

video:

CFO Oliver Tant spoke with CNBC TV earlier today about our HY19 results - watch here:

[minerve 2] 08/5/2019 18:38

stewart64

I have the greatest respect for Buffett but he was in a sweet spot that will NEVER be repeated. Riding the back of Coke and Gillette during the US golden period isn't going to happen again. If a new 'Coke' appears the age of communication and IT means everyone and his dog gets to hear and play the opportunity. In addition, what isn't commonly known is that he has used insurance float to buy companies. That is something you and I can't do. It really helps when you have forward cash-flow and your creditors can be limited. :)

[this_time_its_different] 08/5/2019 18:01

Stock is clearly not for widows or orphans. Most people on this board are getting a 5 % divi with a 1/3 of their capital destroyed. So 4-5 years to break even at this rate.

[creditcrunchies] 08/5/2019 17:50

dunno not as bad as BATS earlier in the year they'd fallen from 55.00 to 23.50 they bounced back to around 32.00 now pulled back again to 28.00. The tobacco is just getting smashed of late but you'll find it is way oversold when you look at the revenues and dividends. IMB is only a tad behind on exptected full year revenue

[gordogecks] 08/5/2019 17:29

Imperial weakest of the tobacco companies globally in my view.
Altria, PM international, BAT,and Japan Tobacco all superior.

BAT looking tasty. So are the yankees.

Anyone follow Japan Tobacco. Not one I have dabbled in

[minerve 2] 08/5/2019 17:14

Erogenous Jones

OK.

[philanderer] 08/5/2019 16:55

Not seen a closing price that low since september 2013.

[technowiz] 08/5/2019 16:42

that close at 2180.50 is criminal. there were loads of buying at 2195!!

[this_time_its_different] 08/5/2019 16:24

Everyone on here is much better off selling the lot and dumping the money in Visa.