Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[kooba] 29/1/2021 11:51

I think the price of the CBs reflects that it is not an easy ride to redemption and that should be reflected in any restructuring they cannot expect equity holders to stump up further cash without significant concessions on terms. If equity is raised that further secures their position then same coupon and extended date should be possible as for conversion terms they should better reflect the upside promised by a raise and revised production plan supported by CPR and not be overly dilutive.The bond holders have some cards but the money is not owed yet and we are not in default.What's to stop the board deciding to commit current and future cash to increasing recoverables now ? They might not like it but can they stop it ?? Board needs to consider all options for their shareholders and not be bullied by bondholders.The appointment of another broker has indicated some corporate move otherwise it is just more mouths to feed. Since I do not believe there has been detailed discussions with larger shareholders it is slightly concerning there my be a fait accompli handed o shareholders.

[jotoha2] 29/1/2021 11:09

Come on CA get this BOD moving in the right direction .

[jotoha2] 29/1/2021 11:07

Correct oil will be in demand for the next 100 years , fact.

[ghhghh] 29/1/2021 09:45

Need to remember that restructuring likely to include reducing the conversion price. My guess would be partial redemption now, extension to say 2025, increase interest to 10% and reduce conversion price to somewhere between 5 - 8p. IMO chances of a haircut reducing as oil price rises. However CB's still need equity to stump up some £ to facilitate side track etc, hence need to be reasonable. The alternative, running HUR into the ground, risks pump failures, oil price falling etc

Obviously everything hinges on the upside potential...

[laserdisc] 29/1/2021 09:40

lots of interest in stena don i dont know if its connected with hur although we do use petrofac.

Ca are mentioning farmout route then my guess would be chrysalor. Development of lincoln could be enhanced via solan facility. Whatever happens i dont see equity wipeout, i am prepared to continue holding, appraisal report of actual reserves cannot be to far away

[kooba] 29/1/2021 08:58

Well that might form part of restructuring, but not sure it would be that easy just getting further debt finance to pay existing debt when it's trading less than 50c in the $. But the fact is we have a growing level of cash and looking at retiring existing debt in market could be an effective use of that cash flow in enhancing shareholder value.

[thefrontdoor] 29/1/2021 08:47

ref kooba.. Surely common sense would dictate to take out a further loan to pay off the

[thefrontdoor] 29/1/2021 08:47

ref kooba.. Surely common sense would dictate to take out a further loan to pay off the CB's at the current rate.....or is that too simplistic.?

[thefrontdoor] 29/1/2021 08:47

ref kooba.. Surely common sense would dictate to take out a further loan to pay off the

[kooba] 29/1/2021 07:54

Maybe company should be buying back CBs at market , currently 44c. The whole issue being valued at about $100m.Company are sitting on cash earning nothing . If company buys bonds back at say 50c it elevates interest cost (effective 15%) and capital repayment. Any material buyback makes some serious in roads in the numbers.

[johnwise] 29/1/2021 06:57

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[monkeybusiness1] 29/1/2021 06:34

Further Short reduction here as Polygon Global has just reduced it’s HUR Short position:

hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B580MF54/

[tournesol] 28/1/2021 22:22

Further to my previous post, here's a bit more arithmetic.

Reserves = 9.4 mmbbls at 1/9/20

CB = $230 million
redemption date = 24/7/22
coupon = 7.5%

total interest at 7.5% from 1/9/20 t0 24/7/22 = 14%

230 million @ 14% = 32.7 million

So servicing the CB's requires $263 million by end July 2022

Assuming Hur can produce 100% of its reserves by end July 2022, it would need to earmark $28/bbl just to service the CBs.

I seem to remember that op costs are around $20/bbl

So that means Hur needs $48/bbl just to cover its op costs and to service the CB's.

Of course H does have some cash at the bank at the start of this. But it also has a putative remedial action programme which includes a putative water injection well for a putative $70 million, so that will account for most of the cash.

This is why the market cap is what it is.

[kooba] 28/1/2021 21:08

Good post pretty clear. The only comment would be whether a use of cashflow might be a bond buyback , debt is trading over 50% discount outstanding market value $100m last seen. My worry with straight equity raise to improve recoverables is that any improved cash flow goes straight to bondholders pockets and is not an attractive option unless a decent haircut is taken by CB holders who as you say might prefer to sit back and drain existing reserves dry.Tricky negotiation to be had but there could be a mutually beneficial outcome if the right plans stack up ..still think independent CPR Q1 end when a restructuring seen.

[htrocka2] 28/1/2021 19:32

…you never know....timing is interesting..(during stakeholder negotiations?)

[laserdisc] 28/1/2021 19:19

work over plan in place maybe

[htrocka2] 28/1/2021 19:15

Something in the wind....shorter reduced..

[leoneobull] 28/1/2021 18:42

Over half I'd say.

[thegreatgeraldo] 28/1/2021 18:27

Leo, Leon or Leone,

...!I missed any posts where you offered pragmatic solutions rather than sarcasm and questions to others."

....Have you read all my posts? Read & understood my posts? If I can be of assistance, please feel free to ask...

[leoneobull] 28/1/2021 17:57

Great TTG. I missed any posts where you offered pragmatic solutions rather than sarcasm and questions to others. May I wish you every success with your HUR investment.

[leoneobull] 28/1/2021 17:55

Tournesol. I know. Dont patronise, there's a good chap. UKOG still not a good comparator is it?

[jotoha2] 28/1/2021 16:32

We need a bit of gamestop action here , maybe tomorrow will be the catalyst.

[jotoha2] 28/1/2021 09:38

Looks like it's trying to change direction , but will it be up or down , let it be up for a change.

[tournesol] 28/1/2021 09:28

Leo

...Ukog dont produce do they? We produce 12000 a day. Hardly a good analogy…?

A snapshot of daily production is completely irrelevant to any consideration of value/valuation

The supervening questions are:-

1) How much reserves does the co have?

2) How long will production continue?

Hur's website says:- "Considering oil produced to end August 2020, remaining 2P reserves at 1 September 2020 are estimated at 9.4 MMbbls (subject to economic limit test)."

Simple arithmetic tells you that if you start off with 9.4 mmbbls on 1/9/20 and produce 12k bpd then you run out of oil around end October 2022.

Of course events will intervene and the numbers are not precise. But you can see the overall shape of the situation. If you want to value Hurricane then you have to consider its overall circumstances. The first question is "can it continue in business after next October?"

[thegreatgeraldo] 28/1/2021 09:17

Leoneobull
28 Jan '21 - 09:11 - 23124 of 23125
0 0 0
TTG. You ask 100s of questions but never provide any answers.

LOL! You should try reading my posts!!! Such as yesterday's.....let's see you find fault eith that one ;-#))))))






thegreatgeraldo
27 Jan '21 - 14:30 - 23108 of 23125 Edit
0 1 1
Can't see the CBs being cleared by equity at anywhere near the curent share price - it would need around 7 billion new shares to be issued. Extension on much lower conversion price, maybe a bit more on the interest rate & perhaps a partial redemption?