Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[porrohmahnn] 04/2/2021 16:47

The obvious questionable aspect is the production figures. In the absence of an updated CPR, the figures are meaningless unless the analysts know something that we don't.

[porrohmahnn] 04/2/2021 16:42

Here's their calculation. See if you can spot the errors;

Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 12.9%
Perpetual Growth Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 1.0%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for AIM:HUR
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 1.0%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6.0%
Oil and Gas Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.2
Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.196) * (1 + (1 - 19.0%) (420.43%))] 3.859
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 2
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 1.00% + (2 * 5.96%) 12.92%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for AIM:HUR using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Hurricane Energy is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

AIM:HUR DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 12.92%)
2021 1.9 Analyst x3 1.68
2022 92.27 Analyst x3 72.36
2023 275.28 Analyst x1 191.19
2024 452.75 Est @ 64.47% 278.47
2025 658.44 Est @ 45.43% 358.64
2026 869.8 Est @ 32.1% 419.56
2027 1,067.86 Est @ 22.77% 456.16
2028 1,241.28 Est @ 16.24% 469.57
2029 1,386.1 Est @ 11.67% 464.36
2030 1,503.47 Est @ 8.47% 446.05
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $3,158
AIM:HUR DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $1,503.472 x (1 + 1.00%) ÷ (12.92% - 1.00% ) $12,739.15
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
$12,739 ÷ (1 + 12.92%)10 $3,779.48
AIM:HUR Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $3,158 + $3,779 $6,937.48
Equity Value per Share
(USD) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $6,937 / 1,987 $3.49
AIM:HUR Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Exchange Rate USD/GBP
(Reporting currency to currency of AIM:HUR) 0.733
Value per Share
(GBP) = Value per Share in USD x Exchange Rate (USD / GBP)
= $3.49 x 0.73 £2.56
Value per share (GBP) From above. £2.56
Current discount Discount to share price of £0.026
= (£2.56 - £0.026) / £2.56 99.0%

[porrohmahnn] 04/2/2021 16:38

BTVitexCoinVxCryptoWhale; Simply Wall Street also increased its valuation of HUR.L; to £1.99 (one Pound 99p) on 18 Dec, £2.53 on 31 December and £2.56 on 12 January. I wish... :-)

Their valuation is based on future cash flows. I think they might have got the decimal point in the wrong place.

You might need to be a member to see their calculations.

[laserdisc] 04/2/2021 16:31

41 days inc hol period 27 hours in port so far current prod per last rns 12,100

[ngms27] 04/2/2021 16:13

How many days since the last one? 40?

[laserdisc] 04/2/2021 15:48

tanker should complete around 6pm this evg

[pro_s2009] 04/2/2021 15:10

Shorts closing and taking their profits...........April tax year end is fast approaching.......... lots of profit taking going on at the moment.

[thegreatgeraldo] 04/2/2021 13:39

Circus is back in town

[btvitexcoinvxcryptowhale] 04/2/2021 13:37

Sending 50k Bitcoin to bank.Thinking of starting an isa for 2 family members also Oh my crypto friends have been buying heavy Hurricane energy also but lse isn't showing the buys.Just to let you know You know how aim works

[btvitexcoinvxcryptowhale] 04/2/2021 13:32

And 230 pounds dividends a day free from ViteX Vx 8weeks I've been loading up hurricane energy free And a 12k buy on top Xxxx

[btvitexcoinvxcryptowhale] 04/2/2021 13:31

That's 2 pound 56p Hurricane energy got valued today xx

[btvitexcoinvxcryptowhale] 04/2/2021 13:30

You like my Daily Mail Comment.Crypto Monkey xx£2.56 Value Hurricane Energy got today also BT says love ya load up x Dividends daily ViteX coin Exchange trade profits shared to Vx holders lucky I'm top 5. I'm buying Hurr with my free £230 dividends a day 8th week now Who's a smart Monkey

[thecomposer] 04/2/2021 11:50

Lot higher Oil prices here will help provide HUR with much needed additional net-cash during key period and thereby, significantly increase company options along with executive management’s hand in any forward plan funding discussions.

[htrocka2] 04/2/2021 11:09

Since Marris invited Stake holders' to negotiate on the way forward early December and oil at the time being $51 a barrel....with oil now headed for $60 a barrel,they must have adopted a 'wait and see' policy.

[tournesol] 04/2/2021 09:53

Royal Dutch Shell sees huge loss as pandemic hits oil demand

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell sank to a net loss of $21.7bn (£16bn) last year after the coronavirus pandemic caused demand to slump. The announcement comes after two of its rivals, BP and Exxon, posted similar big losses. Looking ahead, Shell said "significant uncertainty" would continue to have a negative impact on demand for oil and gas products. As a result, it said it might need to take measures to cut production.
In September last year, Shell announced that up to 9,000 jobs would go worldwide as the company responded to the effects of the pandemic. Last month, it said it was cutting 330 jobs from its operations in the North Sea.


Suggests little appetite for acquisition/farm-in.

a) Companies like Shell, BP, Exxon not looking to acquire in N Sea.

b) 2nd/3rd/4th tier companies will have access to assets being divested by the majors - would Lancaster be as appealing?

[laserdisc] 04/2/2021 08:20

tanker will be taking offload for most of day so will know more this evening. Supply vessel now left Aberdeen on its way arriving tomorrow morning. Tanker will be offloading Rotterdam possibly Sunday now

[kooba] 04/2/2021 07:28

Possible some equity shorts, though numbers seem very small were held against CB longs..Could be closing overall positions as CBs rallied off lows or could be better informed!Must find out where bonds trading last heard 44c bid a few weeks ago.

[leoneobull] 04/2/2021 07:25

Don't underestimate the value of those hur tax losses when you read this...EnQuest PLC (together with its subsidiaries, 'EnQuest'), an independent oil and gas production and development company listed on the London and Stockholm stock exchanges (ENQ.L and ENQ.ST), is pleased to announce it has signed an agreement with Suncor Energy UK Limited ('Suncor') to purchase Suncor's entire 26.69% non-operated equity interest in the Golden Eagle area, comprising the producing Golden Eagle, Peregrine and Solitaire fields ('the Transaction') for an initial consideration of US$325 million.Highlights-- Adds immediate incremental production of c.10 kboepd, c.18 MMbbls to net 2P reserves and c.5MMbbls to net 2C resources(1)-- Provides significant value enhancement in excess of US$100 million NPV(10)(1) at a long-term oil price of US$50/bbl, primarily related to accelerated partial use of EnQuest's tax losses-- Low cost structure with 2021 unit operating expenditure expected to be c.US$5/Boe and life of field operating and capital expenditure anticipated to be c.US$20/Boe(1)

[leoneobull] 04/2/2021 07:23

ENQ purchAse UN N sea producer of 10ks a day for 335m USD. Nice readacross if we get a CPR upgrade....Yo can tell shorters are worried as they post pre open

[back2basics1] 04/2/2021 06:58

And yet, HUR institutional Shorters seem to be rapidly closing positions here, possibly in anticipation of company updates which can significantly rally the now very much depressed share price from these way oversold levels IMHO, DYOR, and only time will tell.

hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B580MF54/

[pro_s2009] 04/2/2021 05:03

HUR at the moment is like a baton in a relay race.

Lots of rampers buying in, trying to ramp it, failing, selling out, next one buys in and repeat and repeat.

Unless you are already holding and trapped in, there is absolutely no reason to buy HUR for a non holder given the precarious state of affairs which might see a complete equity shareholder wipe out.

This really is a case of just watching the water cut percentage and waiting for any CPR/FWP/Fund Raise or CPR/Wind down of HUR.

IMO, DYOR!!

[leoneobull] 04/2/2021 04:49

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-High-Will-Oil-Prices-Go-This-Year.htmlAt the risk of being accused of dangerous ramping, I think we could see 2.7p today LOL.Regardless, stronger Brent has to be good for building support for the FWP, though yes, it heightens risks of CBs trying to wind HUR down.