Hsbc Ftse250 Discussion Threads

[nasdaqpat] 26/3/2018 15:38

Here we go again...sterling Up, FTSE Down.

[invisage] 25/3/2018 20:20

Pat

The truth is none of us know for sure where the markets are heading, we are all guessing. Our guess is as good as each other.

If you were to push me for an answer I would say markets are likely to be tough in the coming months, the problem is REVERSE QE. The DOW is at this level due to QE.

Until the Fed decides to change course on higher rates and withdrawal of liquidity I expect the markets to be tough, I don't think there is a realization on their part just yet but there maybe late summer and therefore in Q4 this year we could see a bounce back.

My view from early Jan was Boom, pop and recovery. So far markets seem to be playing to this script.

FTSE looks cheap here, problem is as you know it can get even cheaper!

No one can predict with total accuracy how far the markets can drop, it is clearly a skill to time bottoms.

The only thing one can do is buy stocks that offer good value.

Gateside was smart to take out some money from the markets last year and pay off his mortgage, I too took some money out late last year. But will look to put money in if the sell off gets really intense.

[gateside] 25/3/2018 20:07

Back in late January, Invisage you had a lot of cash in your portfolio, while Pat was short, so well done to you both on beating the Market.Just got to sit this out. Which is not easy!

[nasdaqpat] 25/3/2018 20:05

Invisage, your comments suggest that you think the market is in some kind of Bear rather than near the low point of a correction.

Do you actually think the Secular Bull is over after just 9 years?

If not, do you think we are in a Cyclical Bear and what percentage decline do you envisage?

If neither, why are you so concerned when the likelihood is that DJI/SPX (and FTSE) will only decline c(15.00%) and then rally to new highs?

[invisage] 25/3/2018 19:49

Holding cash near tops and holding onto stocks during a bull market is a very hard and very underestimated skill in the stock market IMO.My performance is closer to yours pat but that doesn't make me feel any better than what Gateside is probably feeling.....i do hope I can cash up a lot more...

[nasdaqpat] 25/3/2018 19:46

That's still a pretty decent performance, Gateside, bearing in mind your likely levels of investment. We are now at 80.9% invested (all Long with the rest in cash) and that is our highest level since December 2013 so we are feeling slightly trepidatious with all the headwinds that are around.

[gateside] 25/3/2018 19:24

Well done on your performance so far this year. I'm currently down 8%

Trading update from PNN tomorrow. They are down 25% this year, which seems unjustified.

Have gone through the whole of my portfolio and I'm happy (for the most part) of companies results and trading updates. Not one has cut their dividend, which suggests companies are doing well and see reasonable prospects, even if Globally there seems to be political uncertainty in many different countries.

I'll keep reinvesting dividends, but I'll keep the cash part of my portfolio as cash for now.

Maybe there will be some extra positive sentiment, with funds being invested before the end of the tax year on 6th April, and new funds being invested in the new tax year after that date.

[nasdaqpat] 24/3/2018 13:07

I'm not convinced Quantitative Easing was the right solution in the first place. The Banks and their shenanigans were responsible for the 'Great Recession' and the guilty ones should have been allowed to fail and a financial system with integrity should have been developed instead. Some state control may have helped and certainly the 'Bankers bonus culture' should have been done away with completely.

If we are to have a cyclical Bear then we have probably already had nearly half of the drop (DJI is currently down (11.59%) and SPX (09.92%)) so I'm not as pessimistic as you seem to be. I also have no qualms about holding some small speculative stocks as, in my experience, they often do not wholly conform to general market trends and invariably produce much larger capital returns.

Consequently, FWIW, I am still holding AEG, BOO, BVC (which is actually still going Up, for now), CCC, GFM, RTHM, SMP, SPT & TNI. Reluctantly banked FEVR recently on valuation grounds but will probably re-buy maybe along with likes of OTB given sufficient slippage.

[invisage] 24/3/2018 11:48

Pat

The problem is Fed and withdrawal of liquidity...........Sadly I think markets are going to keep going lower....So far what we have seen is nothing as the US markets and Small caps are hardly off........


It is annoying to be so long the market but such is life....At least I don't hold highly speculative stocks...eventually the secular bull will resume as you say.

[nasdaqpat] 23/3/2018 23:16

Sods law alright...I assumed this Q1 weakness was merely a Phase correction (which it may still be) but other geopolitical factors (Trade wars, Russia, NI border, Italy etc etc) have put this assumption in doubt. However, not too worried yet as our portfolio is only (03.41%) down YTD as opposed to (09.96%) for FTSE100 (7688:6922) so our previous defensive position has helped and stock markets have always recovered in the past.

I am viewing the (so far) 50 day, (11.75%) drop for FTSE as Leg 1 of either a major correction or cyclical Bear and even if this first (or only) Leg Down goes for c(15.00%) to c6624, we can virtually guarantee at least a 10.00% end of Down leg rally whereupon there will be an opportunity to significantly reduce holdings if further Down legs look likely.

[gateside] 23/3/2018 23:16

I don't have the mindset to short either. That's why I have always taken an interest in Pat's posts. It helps keep my perennial positive outlook in check, with a solid dose of reality!

[invisage] 23/3/2018 22:45

Pat last year you were mainly shortly and now markets going down you are very long.....thats sods law for You!Timing and calling the markets is incredibly difficult....I personally don't have right temperament to short...

[nasdaqpat] 23/3/2018 21:35

Yes, its looking a bit grim chaps on a number of fronts. Trump needs to back off this Trade war idea or else America's stock market will degenerate into a cyclical Bear market and UK will no doubt follow. Clearly, we are currently over invested but, hopefully, the Secular Bull will resume at some point and our portfolio will ultimately thrive.

The UK Govt. also needs to get real and agree to NI remaining in Customs Union & Single market with the border in Irish Sea. No need to change NI's sovereignty and, if DUP object, they should be placated in some way or told to do one. Unfortunately, the Tories are spineless and will not face up to the issues.

It may become irrelevant because, if it turns out Russia weren't responsible for Skripal (assuming it can be proved one way or another), then they will have to fall on their swords. Unfortunately, we aren't ready for #binparties just yet awhile so Labour may have to take over.

[invisage] 23/3/2018 19:12

TBH I hope markets get on with it and bottom out .... would prefer a quick and fast correction..........


Sadly I am not immune to these losses....but I still have some cash available and the dividends are building up ... Maybe we have to wait until May for all this to bottom out....

I am not deploying cash as you don't know how cheap things can get as we learned from 2008

[gateside] 23/3/2018 18:59

Markets are all over the place. DOW swinging up and down tonight. While shares are a real mixed bag. Some big percentage gains and big percentage losses.Though I see good value in many companies. Let's hope Trump keeps his mouth shut. And hopefully Boris will keep his mouth shut too!

[nasdaqpat] 23/3/2018 10:53

Day 50 of FTSE's Phase correction...the earlier 6877 is (11.75%) off the 12 Jan high of 7793 and the give back of 5500:7793 currently stands @ [39.95%].

Day 54 of FTSE250's Phase correction...the earlier 19091 is just (09.03%) off the 8 Jan high of 20985 and the give back of 14952:20985 currently stands @ [31.39%].

This suggests to me that FTSE250 should have quite a bit more downside so I'm not inclined to Add to HMCX just yet awhile.

[nasdaqpat] 22/3/2018 15:53

Not far away now from my now 'optimistic' correction target of 6876 for FTSE...would be appreciably lower if Russia decides to park a few submarines or battlecruisers in Morecambe Bay or the Wash. Perhaps we should load the Hunstanton cannons and fire Boris Johnson out of one with a sticker attached saying 'You murdered our Skripal so we have returned your Double Thick Agent accordingly...Vlad is invited for tea and cucumber sandwiches at No 10 next Thursday to discuss the next steps'.

Undaunted we have upped our portfolio investment to 79.0% Longs and just 21.0% in cash spread across 52 Shares.

[nasdaqpat] 22/3/2018 09:45

Day 49 of FTSE's Phase correction...the earlier 6978 is (10.46%) off the 12 Jan high of 7793 and the give back of 5500:7793 currently stands @ [35.54%].

[nasdaqpat] 21/3/2018 09:50

FTSE Phase correction reaches Day 48 but still hasn't registered a (10.00%) decline which would be 7014. The way things are deteriorating in UK, I think my original target of a c(40.00%) give back of 5500:7793 leading to 6876 is now optimistic.

[gateside] 16/3/2018 13:12

Just 4Sold FRES in January for 1360p thankfully before it fell. Bought ANTO in February, at too high a price but have averaged down and am now showing a profit.Should have sold POLY - results were good, take it they are being hit by anti Russian sentiment. Sizable holdings in RIO & BLTBuilding a bigger holding in ANTO as I see a good future for copper with greater global demand for electric cars.Probably sell POLY on any rally in gold.

[nasdaqpat] 16/3/2018 10:33

BTW, Gateside, I was wondering when you'd get round to Buying ANTO...when did you actually do it and at what share price ..I've also been considering it but always looked a tad too expensive and I kept missing the dips anyway.

How many Miners is that now? BLT, RIO, ANTO, FRES, POLY, RAND makes 6 + BRCI & BRWM?

We've still got BLT, RIO & GFM + SGLN (a Gold ETF which is going nowhere).

[gateside] 15/3/2018 23:50

I thought PZC was doing strong enough in Australia and Asia to counter balance any expected weakness in the UK. But hey these things happen from time to time. It's all part of investing in the Markets!Will take a closer look at CBG - might buy a few now and add on any future weakness. They go Ex-dividend next week.

[nasdaqpat] 15/3/2018 23:17

Funnily enough, just re-bought a slice of CBG yesterday - albeit technicals don't look wonderful - expecting it to slip back to c1400p before moving ahead again but who knows.

Bad luck with PZC but it was on the cards as these personal care type companies, notably RB., have been under pressure for some time.

[gateside] 15/3/2018 22:34

Hit by profit warning from PZC today. Didn't see that coming. Might be a good opportunity to add a few more. Excellent results from ANTO earlier in week, which helped boost my portfolio.Quite like the look of the Interim results from CBG - you still holding that one pat?

[nasdaqpat] 10/3/2018 13:29

European stock markets are suffering too but at least DAX managed 04.88% from Monday's low (11831:12408) as opposed to the measly 02.31% for FTSE100 (7062:7225). EU freezing trade talks until solution to Irish border is provided by UK is not going to help either. There is also the make-up of the Italian Govt. to consider albeit that may not turn out as eurosceptic as having the Five Star Movement as the largest party would suggest.