Hsbc Ftse250 Discussion Threads

[nasdaqpat] 06/2/2018 14:19

Pull the other one, Invisage...you've been clobbered like most of the mugs on these threads. Post 644 on 28 Jan reveals your real position and also something about your obnoxious character.

'The market keeps making new highs. That's the reason to be long.

How much money have you made from being short the past year ?'

[invisage] 05/2/2018 23:46

Hahahaha best day in the markets by far in a long time. Going to make a KILLING once this is all over :-)

[nasdaqpat] 05/2/2018 20:59

DJI @ the earlier 23924 has declined (10.12%) so a Phase correction has already been established. Fundamentals don't really suggest a Crash to me but I think we could end up with c(15.00%) before this Phase correction is over.

[nasdaqpat] 05/2/2018 20:18

So much for a mini-correction...this looks serious!

The first 9 days of the 1987 Crash Bear saw the DJI drop (09.21%).

It then rallied 05.65% over the next 4 days before resuming the Crash.

[nasdaqpat] 05/2/2018 14:18

Getting interesting today :-

FTSE100 off (05.88%) @ earlier 7335;
FTSE250 off (06.37%) @ earlier 19648.

My mini-correction target for SPX revised to c(05.80%) off 2873 equating to c2706;
my mini-correction target for DJI remains c(05.83%) off 26617 equating to c25065.

All targets will be null and void if US controllers have decided to throw in the main (10.00%)+ correction without the need for a mini-correction first.

[nasdaqpat] 04/2/2018 19:53

Looking at the previous period again, the DJI mega Segment including the initial bolt-on (3639:5667:5424:5710) was corrected to the tune of (17.77%) i.e. DJI slipped to 5342...so maybe c(17.77%) of 8733 points (17884:26617) is a more consistent target for the current (alleged) Segmental correction.

My revised short-term target is therefore c25065 (originally c24903). Tomorrow will be Day 6 of an estimated 9-16 day mini-correction followed by a bolt-on Segment leading to c27298 around about 20 April 2018.

[nasdaqpat] 04/2/2018 02:54

Rework of Post 660:-

The situation with FTSE is a little different to that of America, IMO. The current Down wave has run for 15 days and shed (04.63%) thus far (7793:7432) but it could still merely be a give back of the second PW (7289:7793) in the 7197 based fifth Segment of Phase 1 of the 5500 based cyclical Bull that started on 12 February 2016.

Assuming 7289 holds over the coming days and, as DJI puts in its alleged bolt-on Segment to c27298, FTSE may well register a third PW and actually move beyond 7793 before the inevitable correction. This scenario would obviously be more likely to occur if Cable weakens further.

In fact, even if FTSE slips below 7289, the situation isn't that much different. It would just signify the end of the fifth Segment but the door would still be open for a sixth Segment to beyond 7793. However, if FTSE drops below 7197, that would imply that a Phase correction is underway and FTSE would do well to hold on to 7000.

[invisage] 04/2/2018 00:14

I don't really hold any small caps, they are illiquid and can drop huge in a big sell off as limited buyers, best to hold highly liquid stuff here where one can be nimble.

[invisage] 04/2/2018 00:11

We read with interest Pat ... You keep going...You should tell us what you are doing in your portfolio, it is good to follow.

I am mainly cash now but thinking of buying trackers once this correction looks done. I hold very few stock as I am dancing close to the exit ... I am more scared of losing money, big money then making so any sign of trouble and I am out. Truth is we have had too good for too long, we hope it continues going up forever but nothing ever does...

[nasdaqpat] 03/2/2018 11:32

Good points in Para 2 of Post 661 and I respect your knowledge of Fundamentals...Gateside & Invisage aren't too shabby either.

[nasdaqpat] 03/2/2018 11:29

Yes, EI, you were right to highlight the US interest rates situation and the jump in bond yields was surely the catalyst/excuse behind the stock market sell-off.

However, I think we are nowhere near the end of the current Secular Bull. Yes, the inevitable Phase correction may see a decline of around about (15.00%) for most stock markets but there could easily be another 3 or 4 Phases to come and the current Secular Bull will probably not finish until 2022.

[essentialinvestor] 03/2/2018 11:24

Pat, you have forgotten more about technicals than I will ever know,
I can only give a view on fundamentals really.

On the UKX, FX has a big impact, the DXY sell off looks overdone,
so GBP weakness may lessen downside, and the recent % gains stateside have been
far more aggressive.

[essentialinvestor] 03/2/2018 11:12

As I mentioned a couple a weeks ago, watch longer term US rates,
is the FED behind the curve?, To me they are.

It does not necessitate the end of this bull market, yields could drift
down again, however you are now seeing the beginning of the end imv.
Would not discount one further leg higher - all just guessestimates on my part.

[nasdaqpat] 03/2/2018 10:05

It is also now possible to extrapolate with, arguably, more accuracy the Phase top both in terms of magnitude & duration.

At the end of the mega Segment in the previous period, DJI had accumulated 2115 points (3552:5667) for Phase 5 (P5) as a whole. Ultimately, it would put on 2244 points (3552:5796) so the end of the mega Segment represented 94.25% of the total P5 gain. Applying that to the 11166 points gained, so far, in the current period's equivalent Phase (P4), gives us a simple equation:-

94.25/100 = 11166/x - giving a value for x of 11847 points and a Phase completion target of c27298.

Using a similar method for duration, I now estimate that the current Phase as a whole will last c566 days giving a target completion date of around 20 April.

Well, one never knows!

[nasdaqpat] 03/2/2018 09:08

The 35 day mini-correction that ran between 20 March 1996 and 8 May 1996 was a fairly typical 3 Down wave decline, albeit wave magnitudes increased (they more often decrease). Overall, DJI declined from 5710 to 5342 (06.44%).

By contrast, the ferocity of the move Down this time around (just 5 days, so far) suggests to me that the current alleged mini-correction will be over in a much shorter timeframe. My guess is somewhere between 9 days and 16 days and it could well be a single wave decline. However, I see no reason to deviate from the (06.44%) of the previous period so my short-term target is c24903.

[nasdaqpat] 03/2/2018 08:38

Now that the mega Segment for DJI (and SPX) is over, I am intent on trying to use the new information to provide downside targets, durations & Phase completion targets.

Back in March 1996 there were two mini-corrections for DJI before the Phase reached its peak on 23 May 1996. The first only lasted 2 days and went for just (03.86%). The second was more interesting because it lasted 35 days and went for (06.44%). By contrast, SPX at the time only put in one mini-correction which went for (06.02%) in 40 days.

My first projection then is that there will only be one mini-correction this time around and, in the case of DJI, the magnitude will be similar to the second of the earlier period. However, I fancy the duration will be shorter and that the subsequent 11 day climb to the Phase top will be longer in duration.

[invisage] 02/2/2018 22:54

lol we love you PAT :-)

[nasdaqpat] 02/2/2018 22:45

You really have got a brass neck to come on this thread again, Invisage.

Just 'Do One!'

[invisage] 02/2/2018 22:20

I end the week at 80% cash....Well done Pat...Finally it is coming off....

[nasdaqpat] 02/2/2018 21:12

Odds on a (05.00%)+ mini correction have improved with DJI @ 25491 already (04.23%) off its 26617 high.

Happy days for Shorters!

[nasdaqpat] 02/2/2018 19:23

Finally, after 305 days this heinously long DJI Segment is over. However, I doubt whether we will even get a (05.00%)+ mini-correction let alone a (10.00%)+ Phase correction.

As a guide, the initial Segmental correction that started on 07 March 1996 went for (03.86%) in 2 days (5667:5424) before marching Up to another Phase high. A similar slip of c(03.86%) would see DJI visit c25590 albeit this is already Day 5 of the current mini-correction.

[nasdaqpat] 02/2/2018 18:46

This is great fun but, remember, this weakness on DJI doesn't even constitute a Segmental correction until it goes below 25703.

[gateside] 31/1/2018 23:13

As ever the UK is the international laggard!2018 markets so far:Brazil +11.8%China +9.7%Russia +8.5%India +5.6%USA +5.7%France +3.2%Germany +2.1%Japan +1.5%And the pile of poo at the bottomFtse100 -2.0%Ftse250 -2.3%

[gateside] 31/1/2018 18:55

Just completed my monthly figures.Looks like a volatile year for Markets.Hope no one here had shares in CPI

[nasdaqpat] 28/1/2018 14:36

Clearly my efforts are unappreciated and I don't need the aggravation from the likes of Invisage...so I'm going to hang up my posting boots for the foreseeable.