Hsbc Ftse250 Discussion Threads

[invisage] 28/1/2018 12:25

PatYour first paragraph you could have said throughout 2017.Second paragraph is a genuine question. You seem agitated by my question.The trend is well and truly up - I see no reason to short it.I have not been short for a long time, at the very least I would wait for a blow off top.

[nasdaqpat] 28/1/2018 11:51

The main reason to be Short is the market is overbought and (over)due a correction. This is obvious and I think I have illustrated it well using real historical data.

However, if you wish to continue being a momentum Junkie then its ultimately your funeral but please don't come on this thread and ask me personal and inflammatory questions that you already know the answer to. Last chance!

[invisage] 28/1/2018 11:31

The market keeps making new highs. That's the reason to be long.How much money have you made from being short the past year ?

[nasdaqpat] 28/1/2018 09:02

It has now been 443 Business Days since the start of the last (05.00%)+ mini-correction for DJI. That began on Apr 21 2016 and resulted in a decline of (06.08%) in 47 days (18168:17063). Prior to the current extraordinarily Bullish period there had been ZERO lengthy periods without a (05.00%)+ correction in the current Secular Bull.

In the previous Secular Bull, the longest period since the start of a (05.00%)+ mini-correction was 378 Days. The prior correction began on Sep 14 1994 and resulted in a decline of (07.57%) in 49 days (3993:3639). The ensuing run was broken by a (06.44%) decline, starting on Mar 20 1996 (5710:5342). Other than the period mentioned, there had been ZERO lengthy periods without a (05.00%)+ correction in the totality of the previous Secular Bull.

I see no reason to be Long this market!

[invisage] 27/1/2018 22:47

I see no reason to be short this market.

[nasdaqpat] 27/1/2018 11:02

Of course, thinking in terms of days elapsed with regard to the respective Secular Bulls, a key metric is the total number of days at the completion of the Phase that included the mega Segment.

That was 2157 days in the 1987/2000 Secular Bull as compared to the current Secular Bull that has already racked up 2231 days with its mega Segment still very much in play. That seems at odds with the previous close mapping of days - 552 & 541 days at the first checkpoint and 1575 & 1557 at the second.

[nasdaqpat] 27/1/2018 01:03

My Run Richer target of 20.27% (based on 31.35% at end of P2 & 25.21% at end of P3) has already been surpassed then!

Probably best to forget about such targets and maybe see where DJI has got to at the 320 days mark on 16 February (remember 320 days was the duration of the mega Segment between 1994 and 1996 albeit the Phase had further to run).

However, I love my targets so I am now looking for c22.00% which equates to c26887.

[nasdaqpat] 27/1/2018 00:48

The saga continues...new aths all round for American Indices:-

Segmental, Phase & Secular Bull tallies for American Indices as at 26 January 2018. Generally, current American Segments started on 07 November 2016 and have run for c305 business days. Phase durations vary with DJI's current Bull Phase arguably beginning on 21 January 2016 @ 15451 making a duration of c507 days. The other 3 indices started their Bull Phases on 12 February 2016 so have been running for c493 days. In all cases, the current Secular Bulls started on 9 March 2009 and have now been running for c2231 days:-

NAS100~~51.10%~~(4648:7023)~~~~80.59%~~(3889:7023)~~~575.29%~~~(1040:7023)
NASComp~49.11%~~(5034:7506)~~~~78.29%~~(4210:7506)~~~492.89%~~~(1266:7506)
SPX~~~~~37.86%~~(2084:2873)~~~~58.73%~~(1810:2873)~~~330.73%~~~(667:2873)
DJI~~~~~48.83%~(17884:26617)~~~72.27%~(15451:26617)~~311.39%~~(6470:26617)

DJI's current Secular Bull now running 20.39% richer than the one of 1987/2000.
SPX's current Secular Bull now running 53.63% richer than the one of 1987/2000.

[nasdaqpat] 26/1/2018 10:41

I've had a look at the FTSE250 performance in the current Secular Bull in comparison with that of 1987/2000. Up until the 2015 correction it had put on 221.67% (5718:18393) as opposed to just 146.86% (1688:4167). That equates to the current FTSE250 Secular Bull running 50.94% richer than the one of 1987/2000.

In the earlier Bull, the next Phase started in June 1994 and this was the start of the buoyant period so it is unlikely that kind of differential will be maintained longer term but, even @ the current high of 20985, FTSE250 has already put on 267.00% which is now 56.43% richer than the comparable period in 1996 - it reached 4569 on 24 April 1996 for an aggregate gain of 170.68% prior to a minor correction of (08.62%) through to 22 July 1996.

A correction ought to be close for FTSE250 then!

[nasdaqpat] 25/1/2018 21:01

Only DJI managed a new ath today:-

Segmental, Phase & Secular Bull tallies for American Indices as at 25 January 2018. Generally, current American Segments started on 07 November 2016 and have run for c303 business days (DJI 304 days). Phase durations vary with DJI's current Bull Phase arguably beginning on 21 January 2016 @ 15451 making a duration of c506 days. The other 3 indices started their Bull Phases on 12 February 2016 so have been running for c491 days. In all cases, the current Secular Bulls started on 9 March 2009 and have now been running for c2229 days (DJI c2230 days):-

NAS100~~50.45%~~(4648:6993)~~~~79.81%~~(3889:6993)~~~572.40%~~~(1040:6993)
NASComp~48.71%~~(5034:7486)~~~~77.81%~~(4210:7486)~~~491.31%~~~(1266:7486)
SPX~~~~~36.90%~~(2084:2853)~~~~57.62%~~(1810:2853)~~~327.74%~~~(667:2853)
DJI~~~~~47.94%~(17884:26458)~~~71.24%~(15451:26458)~~308.93%~~(6470:26458)

DJI's current Secular Bull now running 19.43% richer than the one of 1987/2000.
SPX's current Secular Bull now running 52.24% richer than the one of 1987/2000.

[nasdaqpat] 25/1/2018 11:35

FTSE250 is 13 days into its Down wave - and (02.50%) off 20985 - following the earlier visit to 20460. That represents a (39.18%) give back of 19645:20985 which could be about right bearing in mind it should be less affected by the weak dollar.

HMCX has traded at about 1971p today so is c(02.30%) off its current high of 2017.50p.

[nasdaqpat] 25/1/2018 09:32

FTSE has now extended its Down wave to 9 days - and (02.03%) off 7793 - following the earlier visit to 7635. Despite the weakness of the dollar/strength of Cable, I do think FTSE will put in a third Principal Up Wave (PW3) in the current 7197 based Segment but the give back of PW2 has only been (31.35%) and I fancy there will be more short-term downside...I'd be happier with a c(40.00%) give back which equates to c7591.

[nasdaqpat] 25/1/2018 00:11

Incidentally, back at Post 593, I estimated DJI's final tally @ c54347 based on a richer run rate of 18.00% which has already been exceeded in the current Phase.

[nasdaqpat] 25/1/2018 00:07

FTSE put on 358.81% in the last Secular Bull (1515:6951) but that was when it had some fast growing Technology stocks and well regarded Financial stocks which it no longer has in depth. From about 2007 it became a Resource sector - mainly Miners - hub but it is clearly not a world class index any more.

At the end of P5 in the current Secular Bull, FTSE had put on 105.81% (3461:7123) as opposed to 133.60% (1515:3539) at the end of the corresponding Phase in the 1987/2000 Secular Bull. So, it was running @ 79.20% suggesting a final tally of c284.17% or c13296 around about 2022.

However, the equivalent Phase to the current one in the previous period saw an expansion as Technology stocks started to thrive but, unfortunately, this hasn't happened in the current Phase and, although Resource stocks may improve in subsequent Phases, the differential is set to markedly reduce further and I think FTSE will do well to return c60.00% of the previous Secular Bull, suggesting a final tally of c215.29% or c10912 around about 2022.

[gateside] 24/1/2018 20:46

So if the DOW might reach 50000, what might that drag the FTSE up to?

[gateside] 24/1/2018 20:45

I know that won't happen, but Trump would like to think that it could!

[nasdaqpat] 24/1/2018 20:35

Quite possibly but that is unrealistic. It may require a momentous 'event' but sooner or later a correction will happen and then we could get some semblance of normality albeit DJI will still be on track to reach 50K+ before the Secular Bull is done (c2022).

[gateside] 24/1/2018 19:35

Trump probably doesn't feel it's politically acceptable for USA Markets to drop till he's no longer President!

[nasdaqpat] 24/1/2018 19:23

Plunge Protection Team (Working Group on Financial Markets)...a covert organisation that possibly works out of White House that reacts to sell-offs in the American market and organises tactical Buying to ensure US market doesn't drop...unless politically acceptable.

[gateside] 24/1/2018 19:17

Who/what is PPT?

[nasdaqpat] 24/1/2018 18:58

Looks like PPT have got this under control already.

Meanwhile FTSE getting killed by Cable strength.

[nasdaqpat] 24/1/2018 18:11

Another set of aths for America but then a Reverse...probably just another feint easily plugged by PPT:-

Segmental, Phase & Secular Bull tallies for American Indices as at 24 January 2018. Generally, current American Segments started on 07 November 2016 and have run for c303 business days. Phase durations vary with DJI's current Bull Phase arguably beginning on 21 January 2016 @ 15451 making a duration of c505 days. The other 3 indices started their Bull Phases on 12 February 2016 so have been running for c491 days. In all cases, the current Secular Bulls started on 9 March 2009 and have now been running for c2229 days:-

NAS100~~50.45%~~(4648:6993)~~~~79.81%~~(3889:6993)~~~572.40%~~~(1040:6993)
NASComp~48.71%~~(5034:7486)~~~~77.81%~~(4210:7486)~~~491.31%~~~(1266:7486)
SPX~~~~~36.90%~~(2084:2853)~~~~57.62%~~(1810:2853)~~~327.74%~~~(667:2853)
DJI~~~~~47.58%~(17884:26393)~~~70.82%~(15451:26393)~~307.93%~~(6470:26393)

DJI's current Secular Bull now running 19.05% richer than the one of 1987/2000.
SPX's current Secular Bull now running 52.24% richer than the one of 1987/2000.

[nasdaqpat] 24/1/2018 07:00

The mega November 1994 to March 1996 Segment lasted 320 days which equates to 16 February this time around. However, because Trump is so vain and always has to be bigger and better, I think the current Segment may last a tad longer.

The tally for the aforementioned Segment in the earlier period was a whopping 55.73% (3639:5667), as opposed to just 46.76% currently (17884:26246), but I cannot see that being replicated as it is the Phase gain that is more pertinent and the current tally of 69.87% (15451:26246) is already significantly ahead of the earlier period's 63.18% (3552:5796).

Note also that the Phase duration in the earlier period was 538 days which equates to 13 March 2018 but this too is likely to be extended as there will probably be at least one further Segment after the current one runs its course. In fact, in the earlier period, there were a further 56 days elapsed between the end of the mega Segment (06 March 1996) and the end of the Phase (24 May 1996).

Consequently, there could still be a longish wait before Bears get their (10.00%)+ Phase correction!

[nasdaqpat] 23/1/2018 20:02

Further aths all-round for America..weak dollar continuing to help + ramping @ Davos:-

Segmental, Phase & Secular Bull tallies for American Indices as at 23 January 2018. Generally, current American Segments started on 07 November 2016 and have run for c302 business days. Phase durations vary with DJI's current Bull Phase arguably beginning on 21 January 2016 @ 15451 making a duration of c504 days. The other 3 indices started their Bull Phases on 12 February 2016 so have been running for c490 days. In all cases, the current Secular Bulls started on 9 March 2009 and have now been running for c2228 days:-

NAS100~~49.94%~~(4648:6969)~~~~79.20%~~(3889:6969)~~~570.10%~~~(1040:6969)
NASComp~48.29%~~(5034:7465)~~~~77.32%~~(4210:7465)~~~489.65%~~~(1266:7465)
SPX~~~~~36.37%~~(2084:2842)~~~~57.02%~~(1810:2842)~~~326.09%~~~(667:2842)
DJI~~~~~46.76%~(17884:26246)~~~69.87%~(15451:26246)~~305.66%~~(6470:26246)

DJI's current Secular Bull now running 18.17% richer than the one of 1987/2000.
SPX's current Secular Bull now running 51.47% richer than the one of 1987/2000.