Hsbc Ftse250 Discussion Threads

[nasdaqpat] 16/1/2018 09:26

Looks like it will be just 7 business days for DJI to move from 25K to 26K. That compares with 21 days from 24K to 25K and 31 days from 23K to 24K.

[nasdaqpat] 15/1/2018 23:03

FTSE100 looks very strong particularly considering the apparent breakout Up of Cable. No new high today but expecting one tomorrow.

Bizarrely, HMCX registered a new high of 2017.5p today even though the Mid Cap Index got nowhere near its 8 Jan high of 20985.

[nasdaqpat] 14/1/2018 20:41

Having become convinced over the last few days that the period between the 1974 low of 570 for DJI and 20 October 1987 (which includes the 1987 crash) is irrelevant for comparison purposes with the current Secular Bull, wouldn't it be ironic if the next major move for US markets is a Crash Bear!

[nasdaqpat] 14/1/2018 06:22

Projecting forward and, assuming DJI reaches c26218 in the current P4, the current Secular Bull will be running 18% richer than the previous Secular Bull (which, ultimately, put on 627.10% (1616:11750) in c3069 days) so a feasible overall target for the current Secular Bull is c739.98% leading to c54347 around about H2 2021 to H1 2022.

Gulp!

[nasdaqpat] 14/1/2018 06:06

I know its sad but I've been looking at 1987 to 2000 (Secular) Bull again and comparing it with the current 2009 based one...mainly focusing on DJI but I've also looked @ SPX.

It strikes me that a key metric is the (10.00%)+ correction especially in terms of quantity & frequency. I have concluded that each (10.00%)+ decline delineates the end of a Phase and, on its completion, the start of another Phase.

On that basis, it appears that there were ten Phases in the 1987/2000 DJI Bull and, therefore only nine (10.00%)+ corrections. The average duration before a (10.00%) correction kicked in was 289 days.

However, the Phase that echos the current Bull Phase was Number 5 (P5) which ran for 538 days between 5 April 1994 and 23 May 1996 so with the current Phase (which now appears to be Number 4 or P4) having, so far, only lasted 498 days there may still be a little way to go.

Having said that, the total number of days completed at the end of P5 in the previous Secular Bull was 2157 and we have already completed 2222 in the current Secular Bull. There is also the anomaly of the 2015 correction where the low level was actually 5 months earlier @ 15370 but, following an initial rally to 17978, there was a further (14.06%) decline to 15451 on 20 January 2016.

Bears should note also that before P5 completed in the previous Bull there were a couple of mini-corrections that started @ Day 482 (03.86%) which lasted 2 days and Day 492 (06.44%) which lasted 35 days before a final 11 day flourish racked up a P5 total of 63.18% in 538 days. Note also that the current Bull's P4 has already accumulated 67.04% even measured from 15451.

[gateside] 13/1/2018 09:20

No need to ban me - was just trying to add a bit of lighthearted humour ;-)

I hope your 'collection of shares' does well in 2018 too.

[nasdaqpat] 12/1/2018 22:38

Extraordinary, looks like Trump wants to get to 26K in 7 days rather than 12!

Segmental, Phase & Secular Bull tallies for American Indices as at 12 January 2018. Generally, current American Segments started on 07 November 2016 and have run for c296 business days. Phase durations vary with DJI's current Bull Phase arguably beginning on 21 January 2016 @ 15451 making a duration of c498 days. The other 3 indices started their Bull Phases on 12 February 2016 so have been running for c484 days. In all cases, the current Secular Bulls started on 9 March 2009 and have now been running for c2222 days:-

NAS100~~45.52%~~(4648:6764)~~~~73.93%~~(3889:6764)~~~550.38%~~~(1040:6764)
NASComp~44.32%~~(5034:7265)~~~~72.57%~~(4210:7265)~~~473.85%~~~(1266:7265)
SPX~~~~~33.78%~~(2084:2788)~~~~54.03%~~(1810:2788)~~~317.99%~~~(667:2788)
DJI~~~~~44.32%~(17884:25810)~~~67.04%~(15451:25810)~~298.92%~~(6470:25810)

[gateside] 12/1/2018 17:57

Best not say the 'P' word as I don't want to annoy Nasdaqpat. But my 'collection of shares' has done rather well this week! ;-)Thoughtful analysis of the Markets from you as always Pat. Cheers. Have a good weekend.

[nasdaqpat] 12/1/2018 17:06

My focus is now going to shift to the highest of my extrapolated targets for DJI (see Post 559) which was 258.66% * 1.1800 = 305.22% + 6470 = c26218.

Is it really going to just put in a c(10.00%) correction once this Phase is completed?

Another problem is that DJI is likely to put in at least one more Up wave before it succumbs to even a Segmental correction as the gap between the current levels and the current tenth Wave base of 24101 is quite large. It could, however, drop say c(07.00%) from c25850 to c23900ish but that would not be a Phase correction, merely a Segmental correction, with a further Segment(s) to follow before a Phase correction proper.

Probably not worth trying to anticipate, anyway, as all the normal Stock Market patterns are blown.

[nasdaqpat] 12/1/2018 16:31

FTSE100's Segment 6 of Phase 3 of Secular Bull today reached 7793 intraday.

PW1~~05.36% (7197:7583) in 41 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);
PW2~~06.91% (7289:7793) in 24 days (started on 07 Dec 2017);

Segmental gain thus far 08.28% (7197:7793) in 86 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);

Phase gain thus far 41.69% (5500:7793) in 489 days (started on 12 Feb 2016).

Secular Bull gain thus far 125.17% (3461:7793) in 2254 days started on 09 Mar 2009).

[nasdaqpat] 12/1/2018 15:51

The Donald instructing key Acolytes:--

'How long did it take us to get from 24K to 25k?'

'24 days boss.'

'Make sure you half that for 26K!'

'You've got it boss, we will reach 26K in 12 days on January 22nd. Let's hope the Senate, FED or Public don't catch on that we are able to manipulate the Algos at will.'

'Hush! There'll be none of that talk while I'm in charge...it could make me look bad!'

[nasdaqpat] 12/1/2018 14:11

Already approaching my latest target of c25716 which would represent a Secular Bull tally of 297.47% to that point (from 6470), some 15% higher than the corresponding 9 year period's gain of 258.66% (1616:5796).

Quite remarkable, its as if Trump barks out his orders ('Get me 30K now or else') to Goldman Sachs, Plunge Protection Team and Others and they are able to manipulate the stock market accordingly.

This could be the biggest scandal ever!

[nasdaqpat] 12/1/2018 01:38

The key stat IMO is that Phase 3 in the earlier, alleged Secular Bull period, DJI started on 5 April 1994 @ 3552 and put on 63.18% culminating @ 5796 on 23 May 1996 (actually 538 business days due to more holidays in US) for a total Secular Bull total of 258.66% as at that point.

The current Phase 3, by comparison, has run for 499 Business days if counting from 21 January 2016 @ 15451 or 597 Business days if counting from 25 August 2015 @ 15370. More importantly, the aggregate Secular Bull gain has already reached 295.29% for the current period which means DJI has now put on 14.16%+ more than the first 3 Phases of the previous period and is also well ahead on the current Phase (65.52%+ as opposed to 63.18%).

[gateside] 11/1/2018 23:49

Yes the DOW went up 200+ points - just for a change.Crazy stuff!!

[nasdaqpat] 11/1/2018 22:20

Normal service resumed today with yet another American surge!

Segmental, Phase & Secular Bull tallies for American Indices as at 11 January 2018. Generally, current American Segments started on 07 November 2016 and have run for c297 business days. Phase durations vary with DJI's current Bull Phase arguably beginning on 21 January 2016 @ 15451 making a duration of c499 days. The other 3 indices started their Bull Phases on 12 February 2016 so have been running for c483 days. In all cases, the current Secular Bulls started on 9 March 2009 and have now been running for c2221 days:-

NAS100~~44.32%~~(4648:6708)~~~~72.49%~~(3889:6708)~~~545.00%~~~(1040:6708)
NASComp~43.27%~~(5034:7212)~~~~71.31%~~(4210:7212)~~~469.67%~~~(1266:7212)
SPX~~~~~32.82%~~(2084:2768)~~~~52.93%~~(1810:2768)~~~314.99%~~~(667:2768)
DJI~~~~~43.00%~(17884:25575)~~~65.52%~(15451:25575)~~295.29%~~(6470:25575)

[nasdaqpat] 11/1/2018 22:09

FTSE100's Segment 6 of Phase 3 of Secular Bull today reached 7769 intraday.

PW1~~05.36% (7197:7583) in 41 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);
PW2~~06.59% (7289:7769) in 23 days (started on 07 Dec 2017);

Segmental gain thus far 07.95% (7197:7769) in 85 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);

Phase gain thus far 41.25% (5500:7769) in 488 days (started on 12 Feb 2016).

Secular Bull gain thus far 124.47% (3461:7769) in 2253 days started on 09 Mar 2009).

[gateside] 11/1/2018 20:25

Thought readers of this thread might find today's update from Blackrock Mining useful. It provides a good summary of the mining sector, albeit from the Investment Trust's own perspective.


"After two strong years, investors that have not been exposed to mining may now be questioning if they have missed the opportunity. We are, however, still a long way below the peak in 2011 and the sector continues to trade at a valuation discount to broader equity markets. Meanwhile, the miners are trading on very attractive cash flow multiples with Glencore, BHP and Rio Tinto all currently trading at forward free cash flow yields of around 10%, for example.

For the mined commodities, in most cases, we believe they look reasonably fairly priced and so our base case is that they remain relatively range-bound at current levels which sees healthy profitability for the sector. Crucially, however, mining equities are still pricing in commodity prices well below current spot prices and, as such, we are constructive on the shares but neutral the commodities themselves. Many still distrust the miners, expecting them to make the same mistakes of the past in terms of poor capital discipline.

Our view though is that the pain of the recent down-cycle is still too fresh in the minds of management teams for this to become a widespread issue in the near-term. We have begun to see moderate increases in sustaining capex announced but we believe for the most part these have been necessary increases rather than indicative of a widespread return to poor capital discipline."

[nasdaqpat] 11/1/2018 16:49

FTSE100's Segment 6 of Phase 3 of Secular Bull today reached 7769 intraday.

PW1~~05.36% (7197:7583) in 41 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);
PW2~~06.59% (7289:7769) in 23 days (started on 07 Dec 2017);

Segmental gain thus far 07.95% (7197:7769) in 85 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);

Phase gain thus far 41.25% (5500:7769) in 488 days (started on 12 Feb 2016).

Secular Bull gain thus far 124.47% (3461:7769) in 2253 days started on 09 Mar 2009).

[nasdaqpat] 10/1/2018 22:48

No new highs today so yesterday's position unchanged!

Segmental, Phase & Secular Bull tallies for American Indices as at 09 January 2018. Generally, current American Segments started on 07 November 2016 and have run for c295 business days. Phase durations vary with DJI's current Bull Phase arguably beginning on 21 January 2016 @ 15451 making a duration of c497 days. The other 3 indices started their Bull Phases on 12 February 2016 so have been running for c481 days. In all cases, the current Secular Bulls started on 9 March 2009 and have now been running for c2219 days:-

NAS100~~44.06%~~(4648:6696)~~~~72.18%~~(3889:6696)~~~543.85%~~~(1040:6696)
NASComp~42.65%~~(5034:7181)~~~~70.57%~~(4210:7181)~~~467.22%~~~(1266:7181)
SPX~~~~~32.39%~~(2084:2759)~~~~52.43%~~(1810:2759)~~~313.64%~~~(667:2759)
DJI~~~~~42.25%~(17884:25440)~~~64.65%~(15451:25440)~~293.20%~~(6470:25440)

[nasdaqpat] 10/1/2018 17:08

FTSE100's Segment 6 of Phase 3 of Secular Bull today reached 7756 intraday.

PW1~~05.36% (7197:7583) in 41 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);
PW2~~06.41% (7289:7756) in 22 days (started on 07 Dec 2017);

Segmental gain thus far 07.77% (7197:7756) in 84 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);

Phase gain thus far 41.02% (5500:7756) in 487 days (started on 12 Feb 2016).

Secular Bull gain thus far 124.10% (3461:7756) started on 09 Mar 2009).

[nasdaqpat] 10/1/2018 17:02

Makes sense...the beating that the controllers have met out to traders trying to short the DJI will have put many a punter off. By contrast, until this week, FTSE has been a much easier target.

[w1ndjammer] 10/1/2018 16:45

interesting 78% of IG clients with a position on the FTSE 100 are short

only 62% are short Wall Street

WJ.

[nasdaqpat] 10/1/2018 13:37

Having said my revised target for DJI is c25716, Post 559 does also include c25487 as a strong possibility so yesterday's 25440 may have a chance bearing in mind the futures slippage since then.