Hsbc Ftse250 Discussion Threads

[gateside] 10/1/2018 11:03

Started taking some profits, and moving more into cash.

[essentialinvestor] 10/1/2018 09:46

Longer term US rates are starting to tick up, may be worth keeping an eye on.

Are markets are underestimating inflationary pressures?.

[w1ndjammer] 10/1/2018 09:19

cheers pat i will be watching like a hawk

WJ.

[nasdaqpat] 09/1/2018 22:20

Segmental, Phase & Secular Bull tallies for American Indices. Generally, current American Segments started on 07 November 2016 and have run for c295 business days. Phase durations vary with DJI's current Bull Phase arguably beginning on 21 January 2016 @ 15451 making a duration of c497 days. The other 3 indices started their Bull Phases on 12 February 2016 so have been running for c481 days. In all cases, the current Secular Bulls started on 9 March 2009 and have now been running for c2219 days:-

NAS100~~44.06%~~(4648:6696)~~~~72.18%~~(3889:6696)~~~543.85%~~~(1040:6696)
NASComp~42.65%~~(5034:7181)~~~~70.57%~~(4210:7181)~~~467.22%~~~(1266:7181)
SPX~~~~~32.39%~~(2084:2759)~~~~52.43%~~(1810:2759)~~~313.64%~~~(667:2759)
DJI~~~~~42.25%~(17884:25440)~~~64.65%~(15451:25440)~~293.20%~~(6470:25440)

[nasdaqpat] 09/1/2018 19:01

Sorry, Windjammer, I've revised my short-term target upwards to 25716...see posts at weekend (557-559).

[w1ndjammer] 09/1/2018 18:49

Wall Street at 25432 almost at your 25445 pat is this the top

i am going short on the FTSE 100

IMM is the stock for 2018 nice pull back today.

WJ.

[w1ndjammer] 09/1/2018 18:49

OOOoops double post

[nasdaqpat] 09/1/2018 00:52

Segmental, Phase & Secular Bull tallies for American Indices. Generally, current American Segments started on 07 November 2016 and have run for c294 business days. Phase durations vary with DJI's current Bull Phase arguably beginning on 21 January 2016 @ 15451 making a duration of c496 days. The other 3 indices started their Bull Phases on 12 February 2016 so have been running for c480 days. In all cases, the current Secular Bulls started on 9 March 2009 and have now been running for c2218 days:-

NAS100~~43.72%~~(4648:6680)~~~~71.77%~~(3889:6680)~~~542.31%~~~(1040:6680)
NASComp~42.25%~~(5034:7161)~~~~70.10%~~(4210:7161)~~~465.64%~~~(1266:7161)
SPX~~~~~31.91%~~(2084:2749)~~~~51.88%~~(1810:2749)~~~312.14%~~~(667:2749)
DJI~~~~~41.53%~(17884:25312)~~~63.82%~(15451:25312)~~291.22%~~(6470:25312)


*Edit...decided to quote Secular Bull figures rather than the gains from 2011 lows.

[nasdaqpat] 09/1/2018 00:52

FTSE100's Segment 6 of Phase 1 of Cyclical Bull today reached 7733 intraday.

PW1~~05.36% (7197:7583) in 41 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);
PW2~~06.09% (7289:7733) in 20 days (started on 07 Dec 2017);

Segmental gain thus far 07.45% (7197:7733) in 82 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);

Phase gain thus far 40.60% (5500:7733) in 485 days (started on 12 Feb 2016).

[nasdaqpat] 08/1/2018 22:18

Segmental, Phase & Cyclical Bull tallies for American Indices. Generally, American Segments started on 07 November 2016 and have run for c294 business days. Phase durations vary with DJI's current Bull Phase beginning on 25 August 2015 @ 15370 making a duration of c598 days. The other 3 indices started their Bull Phases on 12 February 2016 so have been running for c480 days. In all cases, the current cyclical Bull started on 05 October 2011 and has now been running for c1594 days:-

NAS100~~43.72%~~(4648:6680)~~~~71.77%~~(3889:6680)~~~226.97%~~~(2043:6680)
NASComp~42.25%~~(5034:7161)~~~~70.10%~~(4210:7161)~~~211.48%~~~(2299:7161)
DJI~~~~~41.53%~(17884:25312)~~~64.68%~(15370:25312)~~143.27%~~(10405:25312)
SPX~~~~~31.91%~~(2084:2749)~~~~51.88%~~(1810:2749)~~~155.72%~~~(1075:2749)

[nasdaqpat] 08/1/2018 16:40

FTSE100's Segment 6 of Phase 1 of Cyclical Bull today reached 7733 intraday.

PW1~~05.36% (7197:7583) in 41 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);
PW2~~06.09% (7289:7733) in 20 days (started on 07 Dec 2017);

Segmental gain thus far 07.45% (7197:7733) in 82 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);

Phase gain thus far 40.60% (5500:7733) in 485 days (started on 12 Feb 2016).

[nasdaqpat] 07/1/2018 11:08

The main alternatives to use are 13.63% and 25.21% but I would suggest that 25.21% is too high as there was a larger correction after Phase 2 in the current period and there appears to be a move towards coalescence. My estimate is that at the end of Phase 3, the current period's Secular Bull should be about 15.00% ahead of the previous period's Secular Bull. We are then left with simple calculations to arrive at candidate targets:-

258.66% * 1.1363 = 293.92% * 6470 = c25487
258.66% * 1.1500 = 297.46% * 6470 = c25716
258.66% * 1.1800 = 305.22% + 6470 = c26218

Duration is pretty arbitary...Phase 3 could end tomorrow and it doesn't have to be particularly close to the 545 days of the previous period but, assuming a start date of 21 January 2016 (rather than 25 August 2015) then 545 days comes out @ 10 March 2018. Personally, I would plump for a target of c25716 and a conclusion sometime in February albeit the previous period's 2190 days @ end of Phase 3 was matched by the current period 3 months ago (10 October 2017) so perma Bulls may already be on borrowed time.

[nasdaqpat] 07/1/2018 10:46

Phase 1 of the earlier period put on 87.13% (1616:3024) in 697 days as opposed to 99.00% (6470:12876) in 546 days for the current period's Phase 1...that suggests that the current Bull is 13.63% ahead of the prior Bull.

Phase 2 of the earlier period put on 70.05% (2344:3986) in 841 days as opposed to 76.38% (10404:18351) in 921 days for the current period's Phase 2...the differential for that Phase was 09.04% but the aggregate gain differential increased to 25.21%. However, the aggregate gain probably flatters the current period as the 'correction' after Phase 1 was larger in the earlier period.

Phase 3 of the earlier period put on 63.18% (3552:5796) in 545 days for an aggregate gain to that point of 258.66% (1616:5796) in 2190 days.

So, the key question now is what % increase above 258.66% should be used in order to provide a feasible target for the aggregate gain at the end of the current period's Phase 3?

[nasdaqpat] 07/1/2018 09:55

Guess I've been pretty stupid...didn't think of mapping the March 2009, DJI low of 6470 with the October 1987 crash low of 1616 and extrapolating from there but this seems to work fine. In fact, as at the end of the Phase 2 corrections, the number of days passed were 1644 for the early period and 1645 for the current period.

Phase 3 in the early period started on 5 April 1994 @ 3552 and put on 63.18% culminating @ 5796 on 23 May 1996 (545 business days) for a total Secular Bull total of 258.66% as at that point. There was then a modest Phase correction of (10.59%) leading to a Phase 4 starting level of 5182.

The current period's Phase 3 arguably started on 25 August 2015 @ 15370 (alternatively on 21 January 2016 @ 15451) but the key question now is how long will it last and how much will it put on before it too puts in a Phase correction...guidelines to follow.

[gateside] 06/1/2018 18:41

Real pity pat.

Enjoyed the sharing of info about portfolios. Feel it aided my success.

Hope your portfolio made a solid start to the year?

Good luck for the future.

[nasdaqpat] 06/1/2018 16:53

In order to avoid any ambiguity, this thread is no longer concerned with Portfolios (ours or anyone else's) and any comments that I find objectionable or provocative may result in an immediate Ban on posting to my threads for the relevant username (although I am not convinced that this ADVFN facility actually works).

[nasdaqpat] 06/1/2018 15:59

Despite pouring over detailed records of the previous Secular Bull (c1982:2000) with particular regard to American Indices (principally DJI), I am finding it impossible to come up with even a short-term target that is convincing.

Indeed, my current target of c25445 (initially suggested on 18 September 2017) now looks to be based on tenuous extrapolations and there are lots of alternative models that suggest much higher highs with c26487 now emerging as another contender based on just examining the period between 1990 and 1996 and mapping that to 2011 onwards.

Clearly we are due some sort of correction but when and at what level it will commence appears to be impossible to project although I intend to keep looking.

[nasdaqpat] 05/1/2018 22:06

Note:- I have updated the American Indices summary to include the gains made from the 2011 Bear market lows.

Segmental, Phase & Cyclical Bull tallies for American Indices. Generally, American Segments started on 07 November 2016 and have run for c293 business days. Phase durations vary with DJI's current Bull Phase beginning on 25 August 2015 @ 15370 making a duration of c597 days. The other 3 indices started their Bull Phases on 12 February 2016 so have been running for c479 days. In all cases, the current cyclical Bull started on 05 October 2011 and has now been running for c1593 days:-

NAS100~~43.18%~~(4648:6655)~~~~71.12%~~(3889:6655)~~~225.75%~~~(2043:6655)
NASComp~41.78%~~(5034:7137)~~~~69.52%~~(4210:7137)~~~210.44%~~~(2299:7137)
DJI~~~~~41.47%~(17884:25300)~~~64.61%~(15370:25300)~~143.15%~~(10405:25300)
SPX~~~~~31.62%~~(2084:2743)~~~~51.55%~~(1810:2743)~~~155.16%~~~(1075:2743)

[nasdaqpat] 05/1/2018 21:17

Segmental & Phase tallies for American Indices. Generally, American Segments started on 07 November 2016 and have run for c293 days. Phase durations vary with DJI's current Bull Phase beginning on 25 August 2015 @ 15370 making a duration of c597 days. The other 3 indices started their Bull Phases on 12 February 2016 so have been running for c479 days:-

NAS100~~43.18%~~(4648:6655)~~~~71.12%~~(3889:6655)
NASComp~41.78%~~(5034:7137)~~~~69.52%~~(4210:7137)
DJI~~~~~41.47%~(17884:25300)~~~64.61%~(15370:25300)
SPX~~~~~31.62%~~(2084:2743)~~~~51.55%~~(1810:2743)

[nasdaqpat] 05/1/2018 20:15

FTSE100's Segment 6 of Cyclical Bull Phase 1 today reached 7728 intraday.

PW1~~05.36% (7197:7583) in 41 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);
PW2~~06.02% (7289:7728) in 19 days (started on 07 Dec 2017);

Segmental gain thus far 07.38% (7197:7728) in 81 days (started on 18 Sep 2017);

Phase gain thus far 40.51% (5500:7728) in 484 days (started on 12 Feb 2016).

[gateside] 05/1/2018 19:55

Markets this weekFtse100 +0.47%My portfolio +1.08%Very pleased with the start my portfolio has made.

[nasdaqpat] 05/1/2018 15:46

Post moved to top due to unwanted intrusion.

[nasdaqpat] 05/1/2018 00:56

Of course, 292 Days for a single, uncorrected segment is extraordinary but we shouldn't forget about probably the most Bullish DJI Segment ever which ran from 25 November 1994 to 05 March 1996. That lasted c319 business days and accrued a whopping 55.73% (3639:5667). It consisted of 10 Principal Waves (PWs) which is the same number as the current DJI Segment. It also didn't correct very readily as it was succeeded by 2 bolt-on Segments (5424:5690) and (5342:5796) before succumbing to a moderate early summer correction of (10.31%) leading to 5182.

[nasdaqpat] 04/1/2018 23:36

Segmental & Phase tallies for American Indices. Generally, American Segments started on 07 November 2016 and have run for c292 days. Phase durations vary with DJI's current Bull Phase beginning on 25 August 2015 @ 15370 making a duration of c596 days. The other 3 indices started their Bull Phases on 12 February 2016 so have been running for c478 days:-

NAS100~~42.06%~~(4648:6603)~~~~69.79%~~(3889:6603)
NASComp~41.00%~~(5034:7098)~~~~68.60%~~(4210:7098)
DJI~~~~~40.38%~(17884:25106)~~~63.34%~(15370:25106)
SPX~~~~~30.95%~~(2084:2729)~~~~50.77%~~(1810:2729)