Hsbc Ftse250 Discussion Threads

[nasdaqpat] 09/2/2018 16:18

FTSE holding up remarkably well in the face of fresh new lows for all 4 leading American Indices...low still 7079 which is only (09.16%) off 7793. FTSE250 doing even better as it has only declined (08.86%) off 20985 at Tuesday's 19125 low...

Soft, here we go again!

[gateside] 09/2/2018 10:00

I like HFEL for investment in China. Also includes wider Asia Pacific region.

[nasdaqpat] 09/2/2018 07:57

Most notable overnight was the catching up to the downside of the Shanghai Index (SSEC). It went to 3063 at its lowest and has now declined (14.61%) in 9 days...it only gained 35.97% (2638:3587) in the 486 day Bull run from 28 Jan 2016.

I use FXC (Large Cap ETF) to Buy into China and I'll be Adding to it this morning.

[nasdaqpat] 08/2/2018 23:58

Yes, none of we three are panicking, merely licking our lips.

[gateside] 08/2/2018 23:18

Good results recently from AZN GSK RDSB BP. RIO and many others.Company fundamentals remain sound with good growth prospects.

[nasdaqpat] 08/2/2018 22:47

Day 1 of second Down waves then, at least for SPX, NDX, IXIC & DAX.

Presumably, others to follow tomorrow.

[nasdaqpat] 08/2/2018 06:20

If there is to be further downside in the Phase corrections then there may not be much more upside to the recoveries. State of leading indices :-

DJI~~~26617:23779:25294~~(10.64%) Declined~~53.38% Recovered~~01 Days
NDX~~~~7023:6370:6716~~~~(09.30%) Declined~~52.99% Recovered~~01 Days
N225~~24129:21079:22354~~(12.64%) Declined~~52.82% Recovered~~01 Days
IXIC~~~7506:6825:7170~~~~(09.07%) Declined~~50.66% Recovered~~01 Days
SPX~~~~2873:2593:2728~~~~(09.75%) Declined~~48.21% Recovered~~01 Days
UKX~~~~7793:7079:7311~~~~(09.16%) Declined~~32.49% Recovered~~01 Days
MCX~~~20985:19125:19724~~(08.86%) Declined~~32.20% Recovered~~01 Days
DAX~~~13597:12233:12651~~(10.03%) Declined~~30.65% Recovered~~01 Days

However, it may well be that, for most Indices, a 7 day Phase correction is all she wrote.

[invisage] 07/2/2018 22:48

Also you may recall I once held CARD ... Well at these levels it is back in my portfolio, nice Dividend

[invisage] 07/2/2018 22:47

BTW Gateside I know you like Dividends, Check out CNCT 15.5% Yield covered by FCF, forecast div cover 1.5

[nasdaqpat] 07/2/2018 22:41

Rubbish, Rubbish & Tough!

[invisage] 07/2/2018 21:39

Sadly I did not short but held good chunk of cash

[invisage] 07/2/2018 21:38

Quality GARP is my favourite strategy.

[invisage] 07/2/2018 21:33

Small caps are good in a bull market, dangerous in a downturn.My strategy is multi cap quality and dividends. I don't have any small caps currently. Too risky imo.Will buy small cap funds after a downturn ends though.

[invisage] 07/2/2018 19:40

Blame pat for me no longer providing figures. I had a decent year though.

[gateside] 07/2/2018 18:48

Fact is Invisage is that you did not report figures last year. At least Pat and myself had the decency to be open, when things went well and less so. If you think you know how well (or badly) your portfolio is already going to do this year, with 11 months still to go, then you're living in fantasy land!

[nasdaqpat] 07/2/2018 14:32

Very difficult to project a continuation for FTSE as the UK stock market is considerably weaker than the corresponding period in the previous secular Bull. The fallout from the BREXIT decision may have made a small contribution but the UK has been in steady decline, stock market wise, since the bursting of the TMT bubble during 2000/2003.

Assuming DJI corrects to my target of c23562, which is c(11.48%), I would estimate that FTSE will give back c(45.00%) of the gains from 5500 giving a Phase correction target of c6761 or c(13.24%).

In the short-term, I would hope that FTSE can recover c40.00% of 7793:7079 allowing it to get back to c7365 before starting its second Principal Wave Down.

[invisage] 06/2/2018 23:29

You can say what you like Gateside Fact is my portfolio beat both of yours hands down and I'm on target to repeat this year too.

[nasdaqpat] 06/2/2018 22:58

Yes, Gateside, but it doesn't really matter cos its probably the cash element of a fantasy portfolio.

Having said that, I think I could have done a little more Buying today...DJI could well have finished its correction at the opening 23779.

[gateside] 06/2/2018 22:46

More money than sense!

[invisage] 06/2/2018 22:11

I hope you are right Pat ... I honestly have a lot of cash to deploy

[nasdaqpat] 06/2/2018 19:57

Also, now that we know the Phase top for DJI was 26617, we also can confirm that DJI's current Secular Bull, after P4, is running 20.39% richer than the one of 1987/2000. So there is a gradual decline (+31.35% after P1/P2 & +25.21% after P3). This makes sense when one takes into account the frenzy that characterised the run-up to the bursting of the TMT bubble in 2000.

So, for the next Phase (P5), I am going to work on the basis of the Run Richer Rate coming down to c16.00%. By the end of P6 of the 1987/2000 Bull, DJI had accrued 340.10%. Applying the Run Richer Rate, gives a (very) speculative target of c394.52% which equates to c31995...161 days last time so that level could be achieved by the end of Summer 2018.

Then again, we could be in the early stages of a 1987 style crash Bear OR the current give back of [25.42%] @ the earlier 23779 is all she wrote.

[nasdaqpat] 06/2/2018 19:40

Mini-corrections didn't happen this time but it may still be worth looking at the give back percentage following the Phase top in the corresponding Period (P5) within the 1987/2000 Secular Bull.

P5 back then was 3552:5796 followed by a correction to 5182 which equated to a [27.36%] give back. If repeated that would result in a downside target of c23562 or c(11.48%) off 26617.

[nasdaqpat] 06/2/2018 16:12

I am conscious of the fact that neither FTSE, SPX or the NASDAQs have yet to reach the (10.00%)+ decline mark so maybe there will be further downside.

DJI meanwhile has, so far, declined (10.64%) at the earlier 23779. The incredibly quick bounce to 24713 has to be regarded as a zero day Up wave albeit the recovery of 26617:23779 was only 32.91%.

Odds seem to favour more downside, IMO!