Hornby Share Discussion Threads

[clocktower] 25/4/2023 15:56

LOL - Z - HOLTS for your info ZIC0 is my following troll, and sadly foul mouthed as well. He clearly is a sprat that thinks he's a shark but in some respects he is a shark in his practices of talking basket cases up to pump them and dump his followers - which makes you wonder who's the pay master.

[z1co] 25/4/2023 15:25

Another of clock's brilliant investments.

All your ramping and the share price is the lowest for 3 years.

Keep up the hard work RAMP RAMP RAMP.

Don't worry about my shares when yours are clearly a lot worse!!

[clocktower] 25/4/2023 15:14

Thanks HOLTS - It does surprise me that Railway sales are still strong but I hope you have replaced HRN with suppliers that support their smaller retailers.

I feel certain Hornby is doomed due to their own actions, as folks cannot feel and touch and talk to someone with knowledge, they are less likely to buy and keep buying.

Buying a railway is not like buying a suitcase - you don;t keep adding to the range of suitcases but you do keep adding to a Railway.

DYOR

[holts] 25/4/2023 12:30

The amusing part is the note of 49per cent increase in direct sales , what they conveniently omit is that given their retailers are being excluded from the amount of product they want to buy in favour of themselves then direct sales should be much higher .

I would suggest loss of business to other manufacturers is starting to bite . There was also no mention of how the new range , which I suspect is responsible for the increase in debt as well , is doing .

The traditional patterns on hobby sales have been lost , Christmas obviously still peaks , summer for example is not as slow as it used to be but consistency has gone .

However Railway sales in general are still strong , which should be a worry for Hornby given their report .

[clocktower] 25/4/2023 11:45

Well - the financial position is starting to look grim, as expected - with the huge rise in Net debt.

"Net debt as at 31 March 2023 was £5.8 million compared to net cash of £3.9 million at the end of March 2022 mainly due to the increased inventories at year end and shortfall in sales."


Increased inventories - Of how much? That is a turnaround of over £9 million.

With rising interest rates slowing demand in the summer months and a move to direct sales, they report what they call a modest loss at this point in time.

One thing for certain Lyndon Davies moved out the hot seat at the right time and having sold his interests to Hornby a while ago, is I guess a very happy chappie.


How many days a year does Lyndon have to work as a Non-Executive Chairman a year?

HOLTS - you being a retailer - is not the 3rd Quarter normally the best if your year ends in March 31st 2023.

I guess the 4th quarters sales may be up because of the move to direct sales as that must have been a very poor period during the previous year when retailers were not replacing sales from Q3 2021.

So impo the decline and speed of decline will only gain pace, as retailers turn to other suppliers and HRN's products get less display space in retail outlets.

If this was a much larger company the short sellers would have a hay day with debt at £5.8 million and interest rates rising.

In addition how many folks have space for train tracks in all these new flats they are being forced to live in due to the property boom.

DYOR

[holts] 23/4/2023 20:35

Add in Reliance on Chinese production , throw in Taiwan and I think avoid is safest .

[clocktower] 15/3/2023 14:19

Well HOLTS - HRN are on the right track downhill to crash the train, and as its speed climbs, so will the share price decline, and the chart will look like it has dropped off a cliff impo.

DYOR.

[holts] 03/3/2023 08:22

From conversations I’ve had It would seem Phoenix are behind the ‘online’ strategy Hornby are embracing to the detriment of their existing trade base .
All I can suggest is that Phoenix have got their strategy wrong with Hornby more or less from the time when they were forced to support them or see their investment go down the drain , they have wholly mis-understood the market they are in , one element of proof being the number of micro manufacturers that have popped up into the market place that the trade are buying into which is draining further support from Hornby, how long is it since Phoenix had any return on their investment as well as their capital losses ? A good ten years or so .

[nov31] 01/3/2023 13:28

The Americans who bought at 55p on the back of a magazine article aren’t going to be very happy!

[clocktower] 23/2/2023 12:12

How many folks these days have space for train tracks or hobbies that take up space?

People that live in flats often rent storage just to place winter/summer changes of clothes let alone hobby bits and pieces.

What made me pop in again was that I noticed a Price Monitoring Extension RNS which with only 356 shares trade today took my eye.

Is the Hornby Brand really worth a great deal even.

[holts] 14/2/2023 17:16

The interesting element for me is the investment made in this scale , it’s not new but it last had significant production for the UK back in the 60s .
Hornby believe they can do sufficient business in it on their own , although in reality they are simply trying to cream off any initial interest and then use Retailers as a bin to start shifting the product , it is their belief they can create a whole new band of enthusiasts , watch this space .
What is obvious to me is that their OO range has suffered accordingly this year in terms of new product with most of the budget being pumped into the new scale .
Quite incompetently Hornby have managed to get the geometry wrong on their new scale track which means a re tooling cost and presumably costs to rectify for customers have already purchased ,this is a company that thinks they can sell it all themselves failing to know or understand the support needed for the customer .

[garth] 09/2/2023 08:51

I pass the Hornby site in Thanet once a week for work. Thought I'd look in here for the first time in a few years. Blip on the shares this morning gave me a nudge.
Historic British brands held together in one place. Wonderful nostalgia. But not certain that the brand is sufficiently got-to-have compelling at present to pull off a new scale? More likely to alienate faithful customers?

Hhhmmm.

G.

[z1co] 11/1/2023 15:13

clock

You clown you go on about dog shares well this dog that you own is doing wonderful.You must be losing more than 50% at least.

A complete idiot that's what you are.I went a bit easy on BUT not anymore.

Enjoy your losses.

btw you do own other dog shares when i have more time i will keep you entertained.

[clocktower] 11/1/2023 13:54

One thing is more or less certain, short sellers here will likely make a lot more money this year than HRN will.

How long before there are major changes once again in the management?

How they will soon be wishing that production was not all in China, with the issues that seem likely to occur before the year is out.

[o92mlboa] 10/1/2023 20:38

Anyone heard of cmg cleantech?

[pugugly] 10/1/2023 18:26

My thanks to the above 3 posters - All excellent exposition of what has gone wrong here.

I had just popped in to see if any value left after the fall as some years ago was recommended by a broker - Avoided then and will I think continue to avoid.

[my retirement fund] 10/1/2023 09:28

Usual story of the Great British Business incompetence. I guess your a big fan of Mark Tilbury then if your from this sector?

[holts] 10/1/2023 09:13

Have been customer for fifty years , used to be one of their biggest sellers in Southwest and Wales regions, having to deal with various sets of clueless managements since 2006 though has been rather frustrating , but Hornby know best , clearly their performance demonstrates such :-)
Oddly this can mostly put down to a bit of impatience by one significant investor who ousted a CEO back in late 90s early 2000s , he promised results of moving to China a bit sooner than they came through but when they did very shortly afterwards all the plaudits were taken by someone they parachuted in , who amusingly was at the helm of Airfix helping it to bankruptcy and obviously was an ideal candidate for the job , downhill ever since .

[my retirement fund] 10/1/2023 08:39

You sound like you used to work for or deal with them Holts?

[holts] 10/1/2023 08:06

Sorry forgot to mention getting rid of your sales reps and working hard to fall out with major customers who no longer sell your range as a result really helps as well , what a strategy !

[holts] 10/1/2023 08:01

That’s what you get for turning trade orders away and for allocating product , they are so stupid they don’t even understand that for example I don’t want to sell Scotrail product if I’m in Birmingham and vice-versa , turning orders away for multiple items because some prat has decided ‘levels’ of retailers only deserve certain amount of product and that can be as little as one of each item is brainless . Then believing that they are capable of selling the surplus themselves at their inflated prices , the direct consumer sales will be ahead when product can’t be bought elsewhere but your retailers are busy promoting other manufacturers .
Let’s not forget the vast investment in the new TT range which is not being sold to any retailer , so strip those sales out and what are the figures?

[clocktower] 10/1/2023 07:31

Big rise in debt and they expect a modest loss. What is meant by modest is anyone’s guess. I would suggest that that in view of the significance of the increase in debt, the word modest will be seen to be misleading to those that think modest might be a £100k or so. Time will tell but my view is that this is just another nail in the coffin.

Of course they are excited about the prospects because they would shut up shop now if they said anything other than that.

How long before their masters pull the plug and any remaining shareholders are left with memories of a bit of history and nothing more?

Mistakes thinking that online growth mean profitable business as websites take up a lot of investment to keep them updated and productive. Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity.

[clocktower] 25/11/2022 20:22

I have seen so many companies do what HRN has done to its loyal retailers. Although I was in a different line of retail many many years ago when I was just 17 years old, I was invited to a factory tour with the director of sales, as I had already became a major customer of the company. For lunch I was invited into the boardroom to eat with the BOD and they had a new CEO that had come from a different industry, and I listed patiently as they talked about saving pennies on a raw material. I then interrupted and asked him if he had walked through the factory, at that I had - why, and my reply was that I could save them more than the pennies they had been speaking about, and went on to explain all that was wrong. At that point the CEO got up and the rest of the board followed him leaving me on my own, a few minutes later the red faced sales director came back and apologised. I thanked him for my lunch and told him my account was now closed. I found other suppliers and the firm went broke to my delight 18 months later.