Hornby Share Discussion Threads

[clocktower] 06/1/2022 13:15

I thought it would HOLTS as I expect good figures but like you a sure decent profit was not to be sniffed at, when the outlook for trains and Airfix model makers etc might hit the buffers come spring time.

I was happy to leave a profit for someone else and it might go past 60p yet.

I think there will be a rush to sell once the update is released, and bar a bid that P would accept, I think some could be left with losses.

Well done and thanks again for the info you provided.

[holts] 06/1/2022 12:42

I have sold out but it appears to still have some legs .

[clocktower] 06/1/2022 09:49

Seems to be running out of steam on the track.

Good Luck to the remaining holders, if the figures are as good as expected there might still be decent profits left to take but will the summer months sales hold up?

I doubt it myself, as folks will turn to spending on holidays again and getting out and about.

Better invested in real train services at present like CRDL imo.

DYOR.

[clocktower] 06/1/2022 07:54

Agreed H. It’s good to leave a profit for someone else.

[holts] 05/1/2022 20:28

Never do thorough research these journos

[zico01] 05/1/2022 19:03

shares tipped by midas :



Lyndon Davis has spent his entire career in the toy and hobby industry, starting out as a 16-year-old apprentice at Mettoy, the Swansea-based toy company.

Now 61, Davis is chief executive of Hornby, the company behind Scalextric and Airfix kits, Corgi cars and numerous overseas brands, as well as the famous Hornby train sets.

Despite this enviable portfolio, Hornby had been making losses for five years and its entire future was in jeopardy when Davis joined in 2017. He restructured the company from top to bottom and set about recreating what Hornby had always been known for - making trains, planes, ships and cars beloved by children and adults alike.

Fresh: Hornby customers can download an app so they can control their trains online +3
Fresh: Hornby customers can download an app so they can control their trains online

Today, models include a No Time To Die Scalextric kit, the Airfix Supermarine Spitfire, and Harry Potter, Coca-Cola and Beatles train sets. Customers can even download a Hornby app so they can control their trains online.

The group has moved into e-commerce too, so customers can buy goods directly as well as via third party retailers.

Davis even opened a pop-up Hornby store at St Pancras station in London before the pandemic and more may follow in time. Hornby makes most of its products in Asia so the group was hit by supply chain issues and soaring shipping costs last summer. Davis has since raised prices and ensured that manufacturing is spread over several sites so logistics should be easier this year and beyond.

Critically too, demand is strong here and in overseas markets, which account for around 60 per cent of sales. Hornby is backed by Phoenix Asset Management, which owns 75 per cent of the company and sees itself as a long-term, supportive shareholder.

MIDAS VERDICT: Hornby shares were more than £1 a decade ago. Today, they are 42p. The stock should recover strongly from here. Davis is highly experienced, the company has been transformed under his tutelage and oldfashioned hobbies have come back into fashion. Small companies with large shareholders can be hit by share price volatility but, for long-term investors, Hornby is a buy.

[clocktower] 05/1/2022 14:39

Could be the new member of the team buying that is pushing the share price up slowly, Maybe a RNS tomorrow again.

[clocktower] 05/1/2022 08:42

Cheers Holts - I thought there might be more to get excited about but its great news anyway. Upwards and onwards.

[holts] 05/1/2022 08:02

Maybe this article , conveniently published today , likely available yesterday , is behind yesterday’s activity , odd it should appear alongside today’s news , I don’t think .

[clocktower] 04/1/2022 21:23

Cheers HOLTS, you would have to take the losses into account, ie the money they previously needed to sink into it to get it to the point of being a successful business with growing prospects to work out what they’re average is I guess.

I find it hard to value but the brand’s and goodwill are the things that are hard to value imo.
If you look back at the way the shares have traded over nine months, it seemed to me that the movement’s were a little unusual, and that is when I started to build my holding which is now nicely in the blue.

I think this is more than a tip sheet new year run.

As you say any deal would have to be with the agreement of P. It could be that there has been an approach and the word has got around but in any case I think the next update will be very positive, as they said the order book was way up and they had increased prices in the Autumn, which would have taken care of the extra shipping costs, which caused the substantial losses in the last half. In fact if the shipping costs had not increased so much the profit would I believe exceeded £1m.
We shall see in the next few days I guess.

[holts] 04/1/2022 18:43

Happy new year Clock , do those trades look like a tip sheet suggestion ? except there is rather more than you would expect . Phoenix own so much only an agreed bid would work I think , I wonder what their average is ? Sales figures good , I did wonder why they were happy to buy the rest of Oxford earlier than planned ,maybe that’s it . They did have a hard push on sales but supply was still an issue though in certain areas .

[clocktower] 04/1/2022 09:44

There must be at least another 20p in this, as the level of activity continues, with a few little shakes on the way up I expect.

[clocktower] 04/1/2022 09:05

Something big leaking out it would seem - a start like not seen for a very long time.

Buy out or an approach to buy from a US co maybe or just very strong sales report ?

DYOR

[clocktower] 20/12/2021 14:45

Well HOLTS as I assume you are in the business I trust you have had a very successful time recently and it also seems to me having studied the trades over a period of time and more closely since the last RNS, we are in for bumper good news from HRN when they provide the Christmas Trading update.

Seeing the share price rise against market trend, is truly very positive and I am glad I read the last RNS as "we have chucked everything into the kitchen sink, so we can then tell investors how well we have dome, bearing in mind our order book was 35% up, as per RNS"

Seasons Greetings all but thanks HOLTS for the info provided over the past year.

[holts] 17/12/2021 13:41

Quite a number are at it , only one other that actually committed to it in writing though .

[clocktower] 16/12/2021 19:59

If that is really how they act HOLTS, I will stop buying their various products for my grandchildren. I will seek out other brands, until such time I am assured that they have ceased this sort of practice.

[holts] 16/12/2021 19:10

There are exceptions to the law you refer to , one of the other manufacturers also uses that exception , I have seen the letter that proves the threat .

[clocktower] 16/12/2021 17:41

Agreed Nov31.

HOLTS - they are breaking the law are they not if they are trying to fix RRP?

There are several actions I believe they should take immediately, if all the above statements are correct that is.

1) Stop trying to dictate prices retailers sell the products for, unless they are using the products as loss leaders. If this done there are many ways that are legal to ensure this practice can be curtailed.

2) Make sure small retailers get a share of direct sales from the company website, pro-rata in their area. They will then be happy to see customers searching online but buying in their shop, if they offer prompt (next day delivery to the retailer). The customer, then gets shop service, and full satisfaction without hassle, and maybe a small goodwill gift or discount from time to time from the retailer.

2a) A quarterly rebate to retailers on sales over certain (reachable) reasonable targets (say 2.5%), subject to all settlements for the quarter being paid on time and when due and up to date. Do not increase the target by more than the cost of living each year.

3) Review current packaging and resolve issues.

4) Re-train packing staff or fire the senior person responsible for allowing goods to be delivered as per Sams video. Do not blame the shop floor staff, even if they failed to follow instructions - the senior member of staff should be held responsible, as they are there to oversee these problems.

5) Review the current parcel handling contract and set up a monitoring system.

6) Ensure customers complaints are dealt with fairly and promptly, be it from retailers or customers that have been supplied directly.

7) Appoint an independent (truly independent) firm to carry out regular reviews of retailers views on HRN and how they could improve. Ensuring that the retailers remain anonymous to HRN, so the retailers trust them and HRN. Making this a twice a year exercise, ongoing.

8) Take action to reduce faults and returns, as they no-doubt cost the company a lot more than they are aware of I assume.

That's just for starters without knowing the company well.

It does sound to me as though they are becoming arrogant and if that is the case the CEO needs to be replaced as a last resort, as he has done a good job to date, and sailed well through COVID and transport problems, which I do know all about.

The costs from the far east have rocketed and are putting pressure on delivery, margins, cash flow etc.
CT

[nov31] 16/12/2021 15:55

Hi Clocktower, I think you've got the balance right in your analysis and criticisms. Horny cannot afford not to have a direct online presence as it highlights their product...etc but it should be in support of their faithful and supportive trade customers. Their trade customers will even accept the loss of some business direct to Hornby and I think that by and large they accept this so long as the competition is on a level playing field and Hornby don't undercut them (and at least Hornby aren't really doing that yet) but Hornby's regular pricing on new models is now £225 plus and they need to show quality and value for money...issues with broken parts and pathetic packing don't cut it.

[holts] 16/12/2021 15:11

There is a mix , their main rivals Bachmann do not , nor do Peco but Dapol do, the hypocrisy of Hornby is that they threaten to withhold supplies to those companies who advertise discounts more than a certain value and then go and and offer the same discount to their club members , being a club member costs a pittance .

[clocktower] 16/12/2021 13:44

Great to have your input Nov31 and as always yours HOLTS.

They need to be reading this thread and take note of what you are both saying.

However HOLTS the days of only supplying direct to the small retailers that are the backbone of the company are well gone. They would have no future,if that was the case, I regret to say.

Firstly they sorted out the product(to a large extent). Now they need to sort out the delivery and packaging without delay, there is no doubt about that, as the difference in packing what SAMS video showed was a perfect example of how it should be done.

They need to talk to the retailer that packs like that, and take their advice and show their appreciation by providing some free stock.

What they should be doing, is paying the retailers that support them through providing their customer with advice and services to the companies products, and sales displays, and give them a percentage of Hornby's online line profits on sales - area by area of sales.

Without the retailer, their business and brand becomes worthless in the long run.

Hornby need to put stock into trusted small quality retailers on a SOR basis, that are willing to work with them to meet customers needs, rather than have it sitting in an expensive warehouse, that is costing money to manage, run, heat and pay rates on. The retailer, does that for free and provides free advertising.

Since the late 60's there has been a disconnect with small retailers in nearly all lines of business. This short sightedness has cost many companies to go down the drain. They relied upon a few big retailers, gave them terms that gave them control and damaged their reputation. They showed no loyalty at all, no goodwill, and in that respect nothing much has changed with some firms.

Nov31 would you honestly say your company is any different, if your a supplier to retailers?

[holts] 16/12/2021 12:56

That should read Be a trade supplier .

[holts] 16/12/2021 12:54

Hornby have no idea how to safely pack product to the retail buyer , again though they should be sticking to their knitting and just being a trade supplier .

[nov31] 16/12/2021 11:22

Hi Clocktower, I take your point on what the turnaround has achieved so far - acknowledged. However, I stand by the points made on distribution and damages due to poor packing. I've seen several you tube videos ( ) in which people reference Hornby taking payment and then taking 10 days to deliver and deliver with shabby packaging. Also did u read the comments on the Sams trains video about damaged deliveries? It would be good to ask the Company if as one of their KPI's they measure returns due to damaged in transit...etc.
This may be one of the last problems current management is sorting out, it should be relatively easy but it needs sorting out fast as they're getting murdered on the bulletin boards.
This is from someone who wants to see HRN succeed.

[clocktower] 16/12/2021 09:56

Nov31 - I have skipped through the video, and I agree about the outer packaging - shocking. However, the inner brown box arrived in perfect condition it appears, as did the inner red one and the clear plastic one below that. they also need to offer next day delivery, and sort themselves out to be able to offer that in some if not all cases.

In part, I think Sam was miffed as he had to over pay for it direct from Hornby - and rightly so but we would need to hear the facts - had the retailers not ordered sufficient numbers in the first place, and oversold thinking they could pick up more later on but blaming Hornby?

In my past experience I have seen that happen in other products that were in limited production.

As Sam stated some were very satisfied, so yes there are things that need sorting but the company just need to hold their hands up and deal with the odd few customers well, that are not 100% satisfied, and review the way they are dealing with retailers once again.