Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[bulltradept] 31/1/2020 11:46

As always sogoesit, a decent reply.

[sogoesit] 31/1/2020 11:37

Fair or unfair is not the issue.
What needs to be delineated are issues of value, fundamentals and pricing value (rationality) versus sentiment, fear, greed, under-shooting and over-shooting (irrationality) all conflating in a Time View.

A 20 forward p/e may be a fundamentally reasonable value based on consensus forecasts (ignoring variability of forecasts) but over what time horizon? One day, two months, ten months?

Meanwhile sentiment, if fearful, may drive a price way lower than a "reasonable" p/e at which time market players may drive it, if greedy, way over that very same 20 p/e.

Until your money goes down on the table you're not convinced.

[hpcg] 31/1/2020 10:48

A 20pe is still giving FEVR the benefit of the doubt. It really comes down to how much the sellers will take for their last few. Usually not much, they just want shot.

[fuji99] 31/1/2020 09:07

dround87 - Yes and FEVR did better but the market expected more as it is considered a growth stock so 5 - 10% for FEVR is nothing to what is expected. IMO they may be pushing the share price to takeover levels.

[dround87] 31/1/2020 08:53

Fuller Smith and Turner (pub chain and brewery) did well. Similar figures to Mitchell and butler. 5pc up over December. 2.5 over the year.

[dround87] 31/1/2020 08:48

I don't know from here. It's on about 25pe now. Is that fair? I'd guess somewhere between 20 and 25 for now. But this share has confounded me a number of times.

[bulltradept] 31/1/2020 08:44

Got to be calling £13.70 if it breaks properly today surely?

[bulltradept] 31/1/2020 08:40

dround87, I take it you nicely short then young man?

[dround87] 31/1/2020 08:35

Yeah. But they said that premium competitors were at 5pc market share of premium mixers. On that firstly I think it's very easy to pass 5pc off as a small number but when fever are at 35pc themselves that makes it a 15pc chunk relatively speaking. Secondly I'd be very interested to know what they're counting as premium. I really hate market share figures! How to lie with stats 101...

[bargainbob] 31/1/2020 08:23

It too expensive at 1.80 for 500ml in Supermarkets. 1.35 p is realistic.

[dround87] 31/1/2020 07:16

Trading update sorry. Very strong surprisingly seeing what happened here. Seems it's not all doom and gloom in the sector with Mitchell and Butler and Britvic performing well. That raises a big red flag on fever.

[dround87] 31/1/2020 06:43

Britvic results today

[llama1978] 30/1/2020 21:51

There’s nothing on tv...

[llama1978] 30/1/2020 21:50

Looking at the biggest supermarkets in Spain, Eroski, Dia, Lidl, carrefour and meecadona.

Mercadona cannot access without registering but on TripAdvisor there is reference to it being sold there from Feb 2019 at least.

All others have fever tree listed. E.g.

[llama1978] 30/1/2020 21:38

Also fever tree is available in carrefour. Maybe you were looking in the viagra section too long and missed it.

[growthpotential] 30/1/2020 18:43

Seriously though, imagine replicating the success of the UK so far in Europe, Australia, Canada, US, there's every reason to get excited! Upside far bigger than the downside here

[llama1978] 30/1/2020 17:51

Actually Spain drink more gin than the U.K. so do Belgium and the Netherlands per capita. And the US drink a fair bit too and increasing. I’ve been on 3 trips to Spain over last 3 years. Once to North coast Santander to Picos de Europa, once from Seville to Granada and once from Porto in Portugal to Galicia. Fever tree was available in many bars. I didn’t buy much booze in supermarkets so cannot comment. Schweppes is bigger there but fever tree is certainly widely available. I see that as an opportunity to expand, which they are. Spain has a great selection of Gins. Gin Mare, Nordes, Siderit, Only, and Puerto de Indias strawberry (for the ladies!) to name a few greats.

[porsche1945] 30/1/2020 17:35

Going through every support level like a bullet, Fever’ own fault, should have widened the product range much faster. Im in Spain, even in likes of Carrefor, Mercadonna etc, Fever nowhere to be seen. You realise how few people drink gin outside the uk.

[wetdream] 30/1/2020 17:19

Well, waddya know. share price heads back towards £14.30.
Manipulation, or what?

[llama1978] 30/1/2020 17:18

Nah, me and my mates down the nags head just bagged em.

[wetdream] 30/1/2020 14:52

Aberdeen have ‘officially217; dumped c.3m so far.
Gonna take some time to soak those up.

[dround87] 30/1/2020 14:03

Ha! Yeah you're probably right.