Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[growthpotential] 22/1/2020 19:01

No they haven't

[ecoover] 22/1/2020 18:53

Maybe not !!!!!!!!!!!!

[juzzer100] 22/1/2020 18:45

Not good for them?

[ecoover] 22/1/2020 18:22

Two inst. investors have diminished their stakes . Does not look good .

[dround87] 22/1/2020 17:46

Not bad actually. But take those red chunks from the past couple of days from the blue column on Wednesday and you're left with the impression those who bought stock are getting shot of it for a decent profit! Good luck anyway. I'm in an odd position as an observer where I'm cheering for some of you and hoping others fall flat on their face! Can't have both...

[bargainbob] 22/1/2020 17:21

Still a good close though dground .

[dround87] 22/1/2020 16:18

Now watch traders scatter for the hills. Just one more example of a time that you could have saved yourself some money by being more open minded Chris.

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 22/1/2020 14:43

if you say so lol

[llama1978] 22/1/2020 14:29

G&T is expected to grow every year in the US for the next 5 according to forecasts I saw a week or so ago. That’s excluding any possibility of gin becoming faddy any time soon,
Which would turn gin growth from single digit to double digit per year.

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 22/1/2020 14:25

short in at 1636...see you at 1500! ;)

[christh] 22/1/2020 14:22

something is brewing.....

will it hit £17 today?

[dround87] 22/1/2020 13:30

I mean if you drop 25pc (I was being generous comparing 1500 to 2000) you need 33pc to get back where you were!

[llama1978] 22/1/2020 13:23

Not sure I get your maths but probably! The way I see it is that it was hovering around £20, went down to a low of £14.11 and now it’s at about £16.11 so it’s about a third of the way back to where it was. It was low £17s in November also. I’m looking forward to news of new products, which they hinted at.

[dround87] 22/1/2020 13:14

Just remember that 7.5pc is only 5pc of where this was before results.

[christh] 22/1/2020 13:07

PepsiCo: Back on the growth track
Phil Oakley

22/1/2020

Branded food and drinks companies used to be seen as reliable sources of growth and profitable investments. Changing consumer tastes and preferences and rising competition means that this can no longer be taken for granted. PepsiCo (US:PEP) had struggled to adapt to these themes but now looks to be firmly heading in the right direction again.

I am generally quite bearish on the outlook for branded consumer staples businesses. Consumers are becoming more savvy and discerning with their purchases and this is making life more difficult for the makers and sellers of big consumer food and drinks brands.

Not so long ago, many shoppers were happy to place their faith in leading brands that had gained their trust over the years and pay higher prices for the privilege of doing so. The scale of the leading companies and their huge advertising budgets made them difficult to compete against. This favourable backdrop made them firm favourites with investors who liked the dependability of the growing returns that they received.

Yet, what has become very clear in recent years is that the big consumer food and drinks giants cannot take their customers for granted. They want healthier products with less salt, sugar and fat and with fewer calories. The demand for these has been increasingly met from young, dynamic companies that market their products to a younger audience and sell directly to them over the internet.

The other change in the competitive landscape has come from the rapid growth in private-label products that are now offering increasingly premium products at much cheaper prices than the leading brands. Supermarkets are investing heavily in them as they can earn more money than they can from brands.

Once investors thought that big branded food and drinks businesses had big and defensible economic moats which would ensure that they could keep on growing with high rates of profitability. This is no longer the case. While the big players still have the inbuilt competitive advantages of scale in manufacturing, advertising and distribution if they fail to innovate and adapt their businesses will struggle to grow and shareholders will end up with disappointing returns.

Pepsi’s stable of leading food and drinks brands have given it many of the hallmarks of an outstanding business with high levels of profitability. Yet without sustainable profit growth in recent years, its shares had all the hallmarks of what I call a quality trap – a highly profitable business that cannot grow in value over the years ahead. As we shall see shortly, this missing ingredient now looks to have been restored.



The business

PepsiCo has some of the best-known food and drinks brands in the world, which it sells in more than 200 countries. It still makes most of its money from the US, which accounted for 57 per cent of total revenues in 2018. 54 per cent of revenues came from food products with the remainder coming from beverages. The company has split its business into six reportable segments:

Frito-Lays North America (FLNA). Branded snack products including Cheetos cheese snacks, Doritos tortilla chips, Lay’s and Ruffles potato chips, Bare fruit and vegetable snacks and Off the Eaten Path vegetable crisps.
Quaker Foods North America (QFNA). Branded cereals, rice and pasta, including Quaker oat products, Aunt Jemima mixes and syrups and Cap Crunch cereal.
PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA). Branded soft drinks and waters including Pepsi, Gatorade, Mountain Dew, Tropicana, Aquafina, Naked Smoothies LWTR, Propel, as well as licences to make Lipton Teas and Starbucks coffee drinks.
Latin America – the company’s food and beverages sold in the area.
Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa (ESSA) – the company’s food and beverages sold in this area. This includes very strong local brands such as Walkers Crisps in the UK and the Sodastream business bought in 2018.
Asia, Middle East and North Africa (AMENA) – the company’s food and beverages sold in the area.


Source: Pepsico

PepsiCo sells its products to supermarkets, convenience stores, wholesalers, foodservice companies, distributors and independent bottling companies. Its drinks business had a 20 per cent share of the US market in 2018, just behind Coca-Cola, with 22 per cent. However, PepsiCo lags behind its major drinks competitor in many international markets, which may represent an opportunity for future growth with the right business strategy.

Its US business is dominated by five big retailer customers, which accounted for 33 per cent of its sales in 2019. Walmart accounted for 19 per cent alone.

The company is a major purchaser of food ingredients, which gives it significant exposure to commodity price inflation which it seeks to reduce through hedges. It also has significant exposure to the cost of plastics, cardboard packaging and energy. Its large international presence means that its financial results are significantly influenced by changes in the exchange rates against the US dollar.

[llama1978] 22/1/2020 12:55

The eager sellers already sold. Unless they thought the announcement was today as it was supposed to be and only just checked! More likely at £14 there were some eager buyers which is why we’re where we are now. As far as I can see this cat can bounce with the best of them. I’ll call him tigger.

[bargainbob] 22/1/2020 12:47

Where hpcg, buying still coming , lets see where the US takes this today .

[hpcg] 22/1/2020 12:11

Here come the knife catchers and average downers who think they are value investors. I'm certainly shorting more into this predictable bounce. Could reach 1700, or even into the gap, but there will be a lot of eager sellers.

[growthpotential] 22/1/2020 11:40

Target revenue in each region:UK 150mmEurope 120mmUS 200mmRoW 200mmNet income 134mmShare price of 3100 would lead to a PE of 27, pretty good, comparable to other large caps established in the beverages industry. Can they hit those revenues? Yes. When? Not sure. Do I want this in the portfolio in case it does? Yes

[dround87] 22/1/2020 11:34

I've told you many times I'm not a shorter. And people can see in these threads clearly where I've bought and sold as an investor. I have never been anything other than upfront and honest about what I'm doing. But if you want to talk losses Chris please tell us how much you've lost on this? I'm all ears.

[christh] 22/1/2020 11:22

dround87

you discredit everyone and anyone posting positive about the company!!!

how much are you down today shorting????

Its high time the recovery begins in earnest.

This company will catch up all lost ground because is gaining ground globally.
The investment in its infrastructure will pay big profits.

[growthpotential] 22/1/2020 11:21

Dude this should be at 3000, happy to hold