Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[dround87] 21/1/2020 19:01

Ha! I like your thinking llama! I agree rum is probably the next big thing though for the life of me I don't see why! I'm a scotch/real ale drinker myself but even I can see that gin is the superior drink by a country mile. But we're dealing with fashion so logic goes out the window! Unfortunately for fever rum already has a fairly ubiquitous and cheaper companion mixer. I've tried fevers cola and I think they'll have an uphill struggle against coke in that arena. It's good no doubt but so is coke when it comes to rum. But gins still in for now. Can it hold out while fever get back up on their feet? I'll wait for evidence.

[dround87] 21/1/2020 18:53

Yeah basically! Same deal ordering beer on amazon.

[castleford tiger] 21/1/2020 17:51

Delivery is hard and not cheap

[llama1978] 21/1/2020 14:55

I’m glad they are changing from super premium to premium. Have you seen the prices of fever tree on amazon.com?? It’s very high. $12.59 for 8 150ml cans or $10.59 for a 500ml bottle. They grew 33% on these prices! Walmart.com they sell 8 pack bottles which work out at around £2.69 each. Singles are probably about £3 each then but in store only and they don’t show the price. It’s a lot versus £1.35 - £1.80 here.

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 21/1/2020 14:36

best time to buy this share is just before mkt closes...

[castleford tiger] 21/1/2020 14:36

we retail at 15.99 for 24 and 16.99 if you mix your own case of 24

tiger

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 21/1/2020 14:33

1300's at close...

[bargainbob] 21/1/2020 14:08

Us buyers it seems , ticking up.

[wetdream] 21/1/2020 13:27

Porsche1945,
Not talking sp, but sales values/market share.
If the market leader starts discounting, what do the followers do? Increase price? Nope.
They’ll be losing market share as Kantar/Nielsen updates will show.
All imho.

[apad] 21/1/2020 13:25

bargainbob,
I tend to agree with you. Just drinking a gin and cloudy apple juice (having thrown away a gin and schweppes over the w'end.)

I got on the FEVR podcast.

Up front adjectives! Irritating.

FEVR are falling back on the 'we can't say anything else until March' excuse.]
Time after time.

I think I now understand the issue. Slow, moi!

1. They are forecasting a revenue drop from 30% to 10% in the US because they want to be more competitive "To Premium from Super Premium".

2. One interesting number that suggests that Schweppes 'Premium' is not that successful.

3. That's all very well, but why do you have to go from 30% to 10%?

4. Suggests you have to stimulate the market a lot. Failed, have you?

5. After you have stimulated the market you can get back to 30%. Confident, are you?

So, what do I think?

Consumer backlash against the 'premium' of premium mixers. Probably worldwide.

apad

[llama1978] 21/1/2020 13:15

Yeah but rum is said to be the new gin and fever can cater for that or any other spirit in reality. Unless fever itself is the drinking fad. Personally I still think it’s a great product and as said many times I don’t believe there is much competition. I usually stock up when it’s £1.35 or £1.45 but occasionally buy at full price. I would never again mix supermarket tonic with a decent gin. It’s only 50p or so per drink and you’re using £2+ of gin per drink. Makes no sense to add swill to it. I also don’t believe the gin fad is over. It may have stopped growing which is has probably hit some retailers by surprise and they overstocked on both gin and tonic but around 18 million brits regularly drink gin at home I read yesterday. It really can’t grow much more unless we lower the drinking age to 1 (It’s currently 5 at home) and prohibit soft drinks in bars and restaurants. Both good ideas in my view.

[dround87] 21/1/2020 13:03

Difficult to say llama. That's basically 3 in a row close to single digit growth. Growth no longer accelerating in the US. Even before the hit to come in 2020 that means it'll be 4 years until the US takes over. This is for a company riding a fashion. Drinking fashions come and go you know! 4 years is a long time...

[bargainbob] 21/1/2020 13:03

The only time i seen fever tree move from super market shelfs was when it was on offer For 1.35p from 1.80p. For 500ml.

Shows the pricing point people are willing to grade up from supermarket own labels.

To be fair Sainburys mixers look higher premium on the shelfs .

[llama1978] 21/1/2020 12:44

Does anyone really think fever tree has stopped growing? They are gearing up for bigger expansion in the US and breaking into new markets. It’s still relatively early days for them. Only U.K. is mature.

[apad] 21/1/2020 12:44

I got on the FEVR podcast.

Up front adjectives! Irritating.

FEVR are falling back on the 'we can't say anything else until March' excuse.]
Time after time.

I think I now understand the issue. Slow, moi!

1. They are forecasting a revenue drop from 30% to 10% in the US because they want to be more competitive "To Premium from Super Premium".

2. One interesting number that suggests that Schweppes 'Premium' is not that successful.

3. That's all very well, but why do you have to go from 30% to 10%?

4. Suggests you have to stimulate the market a lot. Failed, have you?

5. After you have stimulated the market you can get back to 30%. Confident, are you?

So, what do I think?

Consumer backlash against the 'premium' of premium mixers. Probably worldwide.

apad

ps
Thanks for the posts Tiger.

[apad] 21/1/2020 12:43

I got on the FEVR podcast.

Up front adjectives! Irritating.

FEVR are falling back on the 'we can't say anything else until March' excuse.]
Time after time.

I think I now understand the issue. Slow, moi!

1. They are forecasting a revenue drop from 30% to 10% in the US because they want to be more competitive "To Premium from Super Premium".

2. One interesting number that suggests that Schweppes 'Premium' is not that successful.

3. That's all very well, but why do you have to go from 30% to 10%?

4. Suggests you have to stimulate the market a lot. Failed, have you?

5. After you have stimulated the market you can get back to 30%. Confident, are you?

So, what do I think?

Consumer backlash against the 'premium' of premium mixers. Probably worldwide.

apad

[cottlet] 21/1/2020 12:43

This is like ASOS. Rocket prices and then the reality comes in.
Same story From Sirius. Those poor people who put their money in hoping it would give them a pension and then the company is proposed to be sold out to Anglo American for 5.5p. I can remember when it was 50p
FEVR has had its day. If it is the subject of a takeover I am not optimistic losses can be re-couped.
Other opportunities in more stable stocks elsewhere.

[lefrene] 21/1/2020 12:22

The high PE can be justified in a growth stock, but if the reduction in sales now makes it ex-growth, one would expect the market to adjust the value closer to the long established brands, unless FEVR comes up with popular new products to keep the growth going.

Thanks for the input Castleford Tiger, nice to read the wholesale prices of these products.

[sam_] 21/1/2020 12:15

Fevertree Drinks PLC with EPIC/TICKER (LON:FEVR) had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates’ with the recommendation being set at ‘HOLD’ today by analysts at Deutsche Bank.

Fevertree Drinks PLC are listed in the Consumer Goods sector within AIM. Deutsche Bank have set a target price of 1650 GBX on its stock. This is indicating the analyst believes there is a potential upside of 13.0% from today’s opening price of 1460 GBX.

Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has decreased 690 points and decreased 672 points respectively. The 52 week high for the stock is 3290 GBX while the year low share price is currently 1411 GBX.

[philanderer] 21/1/2020 12:04

FWIW

21st jan JP Morgan neutral tp 1500p
21st jan Jefferies hold tp 1500p
21st jan RBC sector perform tp 1300p
21st jan Deutsche hold tp 1650p

20th jan ++++ update ++++

[bulltradept] 21/1/2020 11:53

This £10 figure I can't see happening just yet, will take another poor update, if we get one, for such a figure, some people still believe...

[montyhedge] 21/1/2020 11:47

When you get a one product company on a ridiculously high p.e, any hiccup then they get hit hard. I think holding up well.My calculation at 1050p still p.e around 21.But investors giving the company the be benefit of the doubt.

[porsche1945] 21/1/2020 11:44

@ wetdream, no it doesnt, they are not trading on anywhere near such crazy multiples.

[edmondj] 21/1/2020 11:37

christh,

Your optimism is rather wasted on FEVR at least for now; instead there's gaping vacancy to cheer up the Labour Party!