Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[porsche1945] 29/1/2020 10:47

Ag barr majority family owned or probably would have been bought out buy now.

Wheres Chris?!

[dround87] 29/1/2020 10:42

Coke bought a minority stake in monster didn't they? I'm thinking fever will not be bought out at these levels. In fact I promised on the other board to shut my mouth and do one if it happens in the next 12 months without falling off another cliff but I'm not really understanding your argument? Gin has other significant markets that fever haven't touched yet and it's prime for sponsorship deals. Maybe not in the way monster is but still. Compared to galceau vitimin water which was bought on a similar multiple it's just not got the appeal to the big players. They aren't going to be able to take this and sell it to everyone in the world. But there's definitely untapped potential. Britishness is a seller in asia. I could see it happening at a more reasonable price.

[hpcg] 29/1/2020 10:20

Why hasn't AG Barr ever been sold to a big player, it has its niche? What does a big player have to gain from Fevertree; it would be a distraction. Why has a big player never bought into the energy drink business, for example taking out Monster Beverage Corporation? We can see by the brands they have developed and bought that what they want is a product with an infinitesimal cost where volume up-sizing drives sales.

[sogoesit] 29/1/2020 09:30

Schweppes have. Their main competitor is 1783:

[skinny] 29/1/2020 09:30

And it may not be!

[llama1978] 29/1/2020 09:27

This may be the best price you can pick up fever tree shares any time before they get sold out to a big player.

[llama1978] 29/1/2020 09:26

Unless the US plans for 2021 fall to pieces, we should be back to double digit growth in a year. U.K. will inevitably be flattish as it’s maxed out. Europe has plenty of growth potential still. So does Australia, Canada, South Africa and other reasonable size markets.

[kenobi] 29/1/2020 09:23

surely it depends, how big is the market for tonic water ? there's a gin fashion thing going on, it will pass and demand will fall as people move on to the next thing, babysham (maybe not) or whatever, a lot is riding on the US market, and time has passed, there seem to be other premium tonics appearing, I am astounded that Schwepps haven't developed other premium brands to challenge them. Major mistake in my view.

K

[t 34] 29/1/2020 09:11

160p ??? or 230p ???? OHHHHH , can not go so low .

[sogoesit] 29/1/2020 08:57

Errm, CT, they have guided lower EPS already for current year...

"Despite the softer trading than expected in the final months of the year, we have continued to invest behind the brand for the longer term, most notably in our growth regions. As a result, margins have ended the year behind our expectations and we expect earnings to decline by c.5% when compared to 2018."

95% of 53p+ is 50p.

"Continued investment" forward 1 year indicates a decline again, imv. If not actual they are certainly preparing the ground for that.

What's the P/E multiple to pay for declining EPS?

I would leave the market to guess that.

Some other markers:
Net asset value (deducting Intangible Assets)? About 160p.
One times sales? About 230p

[dround87] 29/1/2020 08:20

20x is my guess. Bog standard average at the moment for a well run company in single digit growth. 10 is too low but you're right that it could touch it in a panic.

[bamboo2] 29/1/2020 08:03

Eod close below 1410 confirms the bear flag tp 940
This pattern is concurrent with the large confirmed H&S

[dround87] 29/1/2020 07:46

Big test coming today but I reckon it will hold. Wouldn't like to bet on it though! Right now 800 is as much a fantasy as 3000. Fever deserves a bit of credit!

[traderglt] 28/1/2020 22:14

Quite a few if panic ever sets in - physiology etc etc

[growthpotential] 28/1/2020 20:54

This would be a dream entry price but who will give you their shares for such a low price?

[albanyvillas] 28/1/2020 20:51

800p my tgt

[growthpotential] 28/1/2020 20:40

Learn what moves markets when

[growthpotential] 28/1/2020 20:39

Learn what moves markets when

[growthpotential] 28/1/2020 20:37

Learn what moves markets when

[hpcg] 28/1/2020 20:10

Another TR-1. Aberdeen Standard Life barely scratched the surface of their aggregate holding.

[t 34] 28/1/2020 17:38

Aberd. Staandard is reducing further , looks like they want to bail out whole lot . Not good for the share price .