Fevertree Drinks Share Price (FEVR)

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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Fevertree Drinks Plc LSE:FEVR London Ordinary Share GB00BRJ9BJ26 ORD 0.25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -2.00 -0.09% 2,310.00 31,921 09:53:09
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
2,303.00 2,307.00 2,333.00 2,279.00 2,312.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Beverages 260.50 72.50 50.46 45.8 2,686
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
09:53:47 O 114 2,303.72 GBX
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Fevertree Drinks (FEVR) Latest News (1)

Fevertree Drinks News

Date Time Source Headline
22/9/202006:36ALNCFAlliance News Flash Headline
18/9/202010:30UKREGFevertree Drinks PLC Holding(s) in Company
15/9/202013:39UKREGFevertree Drinks PLC Director/PDMR Shareholding
11/9/202019:36ALNCDIRECTOR DEALINGS: Fevertree Non-Exec Havelock Buys 16,500 Shares
11/9/202009:21UKREGFevertree Drinks PLC Director/PDMR Shareholding
08/9/202011:12ALNCFevertree Drinks Declares Interim Dividend After "Resilient" 1st Half
08/9/202007:00UKREGFevertree Drinks PLC Half-year Report
01/9/202011:07UKREGFevertree Drinks PLC Total Voting Rights
04/8/202014:16UKREGFevertree Drinks PLC Total Voting Rights
14/7/202010:30ALNCFevertree Drinks Buys Germany Distributor, Sees Strong Off-Trade Sales
More Fevertree Drinks News
Fevertree Drinks Takeover Rumours

Fevertree Drinks (FEVR) Discussions and Chat

Fevertree Drinks Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
18/9/202008:29FEVER TREE with chart7,950
08/9/202011:10Fevertree - private investor969
21/8/202009:21Fevertree Drinks PLC (Fever-Tree)1,957
28/4/202014:16Fevertree154
26/3/201910:54Fevertree Drinks FY Results 26.03.19 Preview5

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Fevertree Drinks (FEVR) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
08:53:492,303.721142,626.24O
08:53:192,303.00123.03O
08:52:032,310.005115.50AT
08:52:032,306.0011253.66AT
08:51:462,310.0943993.34O
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Fevertree Drinks (FEVR) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
22/9/2020
09:20		Fevertree Drinks Daily Update: Fevertree Drinks Plc is listed in the Beverages sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker FEVR. The last closing price for Fevertree Drinks was 2,312p.
Fevertree Drinks Plc has a 4 week average price of 1,919p and a 12 week average price of 1,919p.
The 1 year high share price is 2,470p while the 1 year low share price is currently 889.20p.
There are currently 116,261,263 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 604,674 shares. The market capitalisation of Fevertree Drinks Plc is £2,684,472,562.67.
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18/9/2020
08:29		llama1978: Biggest threat to share price at the moment is massive Europe wide / global lockdown and new stock market panic I would say. Already talks about circuit breakers etc in U.K. (whilst leaving schools open, hmmmm). Anyway. Enjoy your freedom whilst you can, responsibly of course.
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16/9/2020
19:02		apad: In my view the recent FEVR results said three things of significance. 1. The surprising way in which the off-trade was making up for the lapse of the on-trade is continuing. 2. Their US market approach is really working AND rolling out. Remember the US is 50 countries and they have just hired 5 new employees. 3. They are maintaining their dominance over competitors. Post the results this was not reflected in the share price performance. I opine that their strength is becoming realised and that the share price will easily return to the post £30 level. Simply because the easy criticisms have been demolished. apad
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08/9/2020
10:38		hodhasharon: Share Price vs. Fair Value 25.7% Overvalued Current Price UK£21.20 Fair Value UK£16.86 20% Undervalued Fair Value: FEVR (£21.2) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£16.86)
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28/8/2020
10:28		trident5: I'm confused a few days ago you said that MMs were marking this down, which was consistent with the share price direction. Is that very strong marketing campaign or very expensive marketing campaign?
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29/2/2020
09:20		christh: ‘Do nothing’ Train buys Fevertree after 6 year wait By Gavin Lumsden 28 Feb, 2020 Nick Train, one of the UK’s few remaining star fund managers after the downfall of Neil Woodord, has scooped up a stake in battered tonic maker Fevertree (FEVR) and declared himself uninterested in the stock market turmoil caused by the coronavirus. Train invested 0.6% of Finsbury Growth & Income Trust (FGT) in Fevertree this month as its share price sank following a profits warning in January caused by disappointing Christmas trading. The Citywire AA-rated fund manager told shareholders in the £1.7bn investment trust that Fevertree was ‘a classic Lindsell Train idea’, referring to the investment firm he co-founded with Michael Lindsell 20 years ago. After a meteoric rise from their flotation in late 2014 as Fevertree stole market share from Coca-Cola’s Schweppes, the company’s shares peaked at over £38 in September 2018. Since then they have plunged by two thirds as fears have grown about the company’s US expansion and whether the UK tonics market has lost its fizz. More than tonic Train acknowledged the £1.5bn company faced challenges in the short- and medium-term. Asked by an FGT shareholder whether Fevertree was too ‘fashionable’ and vulnerable to changes in consumer taste, Train replied: ‘A brand of global significance has been established. There is an opportunity to grow that brand equity in Europe and the US.’ But he agreed that ‘Fevertree needs to be about more than tonic’ if it was to continue to succeed, pointing to the growth potential in its ginger ale and soda water products in the US. Train told investors at FGT’s annual general meeting in London’s Guildhall that he and Lindsell had watched Fevertree for years looking for an opportunity to buy. ‘Having kicked ourselves for not buying it seven years ago then to see the collapse in the share price,’ he said they had to act. Train declined to say what price he had bought Fevertree but said it was ‘notably under £14’. The shares have continued to fall as covid-19 fears have gripped the market, down 3.9% or 51.5p to £12.63 today. hTtps://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/do-nothing-train-buys-fevertree-after-six-year-wait/a1329041?re=72341&ea=26664&utm_source=BulkEmail_FundsInsider+Weekend&utm_medium=BulkEmail_FundsInsider+Weekend&;utm_campaign=BulkEmail_FundsInsider+Weekend
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21/1/2020
12:15		sam_: Fevertree Drinks PLC with EPIC/TICKER (LON:FEVR) had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates’ with the recommendation being set at ‘HOLD’ today by analysts at Deutsche Bank. Fevertree Drinks PLC are listed in the Consumer Goods sector within AIM. Deutsche Bank have set a target price of 1650 GBX on its stock. This is indicating the analyst believes there is a potential upside of 13.0% from today’s opening price of 1460 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has decreased 690 points and decreased 672 points respectively. The 52 week high for the stock is 3290 GBX while the year low share price is currently 1411 GBX. https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/fevertree-drinks-plc-13-potential-upside-indicated-by-deutsche-bank/412803422
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30/10/2019
15:21		trying2getrichquick: Smithson jumps on the Fevertree bandwagon By Kristen McGachey. Fundsmith investment trust has 30 holdings after initiating position in drinks maker Fundsmith investment trust Smithson has become the latest small-cap manager to buy Fevertree as the drinks business’s share price falls to a more palatable level. Smithson manager Simon Barnard noted in the July factsheet for the trust that Fevertree shares were down 47% from their 2018 peak due to a lukewarm reception to a trading update. This resulted in “an attractive valuation given our estimation of the business quality and growth prospects for the company,” Barnard said in the trust’s latest update. Within the investment trust universe, the Independent Investment Trust already holds a 6.7% weighting in Fevertree, while SVM UK Emerging has a 3.8% allocation. Fidelity Investments currently owns the largest stake in the business at 8.4%, while Aberdeen Standard Investments and Morgan Stanley Investments also own 6% each. Fevertree’s share price has skyrocketed in value since the company’s IPO in November 2014, growing 23 times in under four years from 165p to £39.34 a share in September 2018. A second chance for investors who missed the boat The Share Centre investment research analyst Helal Miah viewed the recent volatility in Fevertree’s shares “as a second chance for investors who may have missed the boat a year ago”. “While we do not have a formal recommendation on the shares, we do believe Fevertree at current prices offers investors good prospects,” he said in an analyst note. “The dividend yield is very modest but the rise in the payment by 23% is encouraging.” Miah added that following the depreciation in share price, the fizzy drink maker was on “a far more palatable multiple” of 32x price to earnings (P/E) for 2020.
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30/9/2019
22:36		trying2getrichquick: Fevertree Drinks Market Cap - UK£2.8b Last Updated - 2019/09/29 22:01 UTC Executive Summary Fevertree Drinks Plc, together with its subsidiaries, develops and supplies premium mixer drinks in the United Kingdom, the United States, Europe, and internationally. Snowflake Fundamentals Flawless balance sheet with solid track record. Share Price & News How has Fevertree Drinks's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes? Latest Share Price and Events Market Performance 7 Day Return 0.6% FEVR 2.1% GB Beverage 0.2% GB Market 1 Year Return -32.9% FEVR 15.7% GB Beverage -1.8% GB Market Return vs Industry: FEVR underperformed the UK Beverage industry which returned 15.7% over the past year. Return vs Market: FEVR underperformed the UK Market which returned -1.8% over the past year. Share holder returns FEVR Industry Market 7 Day 0.6% 2.1% 0.2% 30 Day 7.1% -4.7% 3.3% 90 Day 4.8% -3.0% -0.4% 1 Year -32.5%-32.9% 18.9%15.7% 2.8%-1.8% 3 Year 153.1%149.6% 62.1%50.3% 21.3%6.8% 5 Year n/a 112.2%85.4% 36.2%7.3% Price Volatility Vs. Market Valuation Is Fevertree Drinks undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market? Analysis Checks 0/6 44.15x Price to Earnings (PE) ratio Intrinsic Value Based on Future Cash Flows 25.8%Overvalued Current PriceUK£24.21Fair ValueUK£19.2520% UndervaluedAbout Right20% Overvalued Undervalued: FEVR (£24.21) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£19.25) Significantly Undervalued: FEVR is trading above our estimate of fair value. Price Based on Earnings }}}0x10x20x30x40x50x60x PE Ratio company 44.1x industry 25.2x market 16x PE vs Industry: FEVR is poor value based on its PE Ratio (44.1x) compared to the Beverage industry average (25.2x). PE vs Market: FEVR is poor value based on its PE Ratio (44.1x) compared to the UK market (16x). Price Based on Expected Growth }0x1x2x3x4x PEG Ratio company 4.2x Low PEG Ratio: FEVR is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (4.2x) Price Based on Value of Assets }}}0x5x10x15x20x PB Ratio company 14x industry 3.6x market 1.5x PB vs Industry: FEVR is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (14x) compared to the GB Beverage industry average (3.6x). Next Steps Explore potentially undervalued companies in the Food, Beverage & Tobacco industry. Future Growth How is Fevertree Drinks expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 11 analysts? Analysis Checks 3/6 10.5% Forecasted annual earnings growth Earnings and Revenue Growth Estimates GBPRevenueCash FlowEarnings Growth Rates20172018201920202021202220232024£0£500MActualEstimated Future Annual Growth Analysis company10.5%industry6.9% market12.5% forecast annual earnings growth company12.3%industry5.6% market4.1% forecast annual revenue growth Earnings vs Savings Rate: FEVR's forecast earnings growth (10.5% per year) is above the savings rate (1.2%). Earnings vs Market: FEVR's earnings (10.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the UK market (12.5% per year). High Growth Earnings: FEVR's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly. Revenue vs Market: FEVR's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.1% per year). High Growth Revenue: FEVR's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year. Earnings per Share Growth Estimates GBP 20172018201920202021202220232024£0.2£1 Historical Range of past estimates Analyst's estimate Range of estimates Future Return on Equity }}0%10%20%30%40% Future ROE (3yrs) company 26.4% industry 18.1% High Future ROE: FEVR's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (26.4%) Past Performance How has Fevertree Drinks performed over the past 5 years? Analysis Checks 5/6 48.6% Historical annual earnings growth Earnings and Revenue History GBPRevenueCash FlowEarningsOperating Expenses Growth Rate20132014201520162017201820192020£-50M£300M Past Earnings Growth Analysis company48.6%industry8.6% market13.4% past 5 years annual earnings growth company21.1%industry4.6% market6.8% last 1 year earnings growth Earnings Trend: FEVR's earnings have grown significantly by 48.6% per year over the past 5 years. Accelerating Growth: FEVR's earnings growth over the past year (21.1%) is below its 5-year average (48.6% per year). Earnings vs Industry: FEVR earnings growth over the past year (21.1%) exceeded the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland industry 4.6%. Return on Equity }}0%10%20%30%40% ROE company 31.7% industry 18.1% High ROE: FEVR's Return on Equity (31.7%) is considered high. Return on Assets }}0%2%4%6%8%10% ROA company 26.5% industry 8.5% ROA vs Industry: FEVR has a higher Return on Assets than the Beverage industry average last year. Return on Capital Employed }}0%10%20%30% ROCE last year 38.4% 3 years ago 27.6% ROCE Improving: FEVR has significantly improved its Return on Capital Employed over the past 3 years. Financial Health How is Fevertree Drinks's financial position? Analysis Checks 5/6 Financial Position Analysis GBP 20132014201520162017201820192020£0£250MNet worth GBPShort termLong termNet worth LiabilitiesAssets Short Term Liabilities: FEVR's short term assets (£189.9M) exceeds its short term liabilities (£36.7M) Long Term Liabilities: FEVR's short term assets (£189.9M) exceeds its long term liabilities (£1.5M) Debt to Equity History and Analysis GBPDebtNet worth (Equity)Cash 20132014201520162017201820192020£-50M£250M Debt Level: FEVR is debt free. Reducing Debt: FEVR currently has no debt however we can't compare to 5 years ago as we have no data for that period. Debt Coverage: FEVR has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow. Interest Coverage: FEVR has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern. Balance Sheet Assets Cash + Short termInvestmentsReceivablesInventoryPh230;Long term +Other Assets Liabilities + Equity EquityDebtAccountsPayableOtherLiabilities Inventory Level: FEVR has a low level of unsold assets or inventory. Debt Coverage by Assets: Insufficient data to determine if FEVR's debt is covered by short term assets. Dividend What is Fevertree Drinks's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability? Analysis Checks 0/6 0.80% Expected Dividend Yield Dividend Yield and Payments Analysis DPSFEVR DPSFEVR YieldBeverageMarket 201620172018201920202021202220232024£0£0.3 2.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.6% Notable Dividend: FEVR's dividend (0.6%%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.97%%). High Dividend: FEVR's dividend (0.6%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.47%). Stable Dividend: FEVR is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable. Growing Dividend: FEVR is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing. Current Payout to Shareholders 28%Now Retained byFevertree Drin…Paid to you Dividend Coverage: FEVR is not paying a notable dividend for . Future Payout to Shareholders 30%+3 yrs Retained byFevertree Drin…Paid to you Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of FEVR's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the UK market. Management What is the CEO of Fevertree Drinks's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading? 3.3yrs Average board tenure CEO Tim Warrillow (44yo) 0yrs Tenure UK£3,981,000 Compensation Mr. Timothy Daniel Gray Warrillow, also known as Tim, is a Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director at Fevertree Drinks Plc. Mr. Warrillow joined a London-based advertising and branding a ... CEO Compensation Analysis GBPTotal CompensationSalaryFevertree Drinks EPS 2014201520162017201820192020£0UK£5m Compensation vs. Market: Tim's total compensation ($USD4.90M) is about average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD2.26M). Compensation vs Earnings: Tim's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year. Board Age and Tenure 3.3yrs Average Tenure 55yo Average Age Experienced Board: FEVR's board of directors are considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure). Insider Trading SOLDBOUGHTSold by companiesSold by individualsBought by companiesBought by individuals0-3 months3-6 months6-9 months9-12 months Insider Buying: FEVR insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months. Recent Insider Transactions AIM:FEVR Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or IndividualsDate Value Name Entity Role Shares Max Price 16 Aug 19 BuyUK£43,320 Jeff Popkin Individual 2,000 UK£21.66 25 Jul 19 BuyUK£289,561 Kevin Havelock Individual 13,298 UK£21.99 07 Dec 18 BuyUK£67,843 Jeff Popkin Individual 2,933 UK£23.17 11 Oct 18 BuyUK£167,946 Kevin Havelock Individual 5,727 UK£29.55 Ownership Breakdown General PublicIndividual InsidersPrivate CompaniesInstitutions Institutions Private Companies Individual Insiders General Public Management Team Charles Rolls (62yo) Co-Founder & Non-Executive Deputy Chairman Tenure: 0yrs Tim Warrillow (44yo) Co-Founder Tenure: 0yrs Compensation: UK£3.98m Andy Branchflower (40yo) Finance Director Tenure: 4.9yrs Compensation: UK£1.92m Saskia Stoop (35yo) Head of Marketing Tenure: 0yrs Claire Huntingford (38yo) Head of Supply Chain Tenure: 0yrs Charles Gibb Global Strategy Director & CEO of North American Tenure: 1.8yrs Oliver Winters Communications & IR Director Tenure: 0yrs Board Members Bill Ronald (63yo) Non-Executive Chairman Tenure: 6.3yrs Compensation: UK£125.00k Coline McConville (55yo) Independent Non-Executive Director Tenure: 4.8yrs Compensation: UK£58.00k Jeff Popkin (54yo) Independent Non Executive Director Tenure: 1.7yrs Compensation: UK£46.00k Kevin Havelock (61yo) Independent Non-executive Director Tenure: 1.7yrs Compensation: UK£46.00k Domenic De Lorenzo (55yo) Independent Non-Executive Director Tenure: 1.3yrs Compensation: UK£30.00k Charles Rolls (62yo) Co-Founder & Non-Executive Deputy Chairman Tenure: 0yrs Tim Warrillow (44yo) Co-Founder Tenure: 0yrs Compensation: UK£3.98m Andy Branchflower (40yo) Finance Director Tenure: 4.9yrs Compensation: UK£1.92m Company Information Fevertree Drinks Plc's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources Key Information Fevertree Drinks Plc logo Name: Fevertree Drinks Plc Ticker: FEVR Exchange: AIM Founded: 2013 Industry: Soft Drinks Sector: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Market Cap: UK£2.811b Shares outstanding: 116.13m Website: hxxps://www.fever-tree.com Fevertree Drinks Plc 186 -188 Shepherds Bush Road London Greater London W6 7NL United Kingdom Listings Ticker Exchange Primary Security Security Type Country Currency Listed on FEVR AIM (London Stock Exchange AIM Market) Yes Ordinary Shares GB GBP Nov 2014 FQVT.F OTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC) Yes Ordinary Shares US USD Nov 2014 FV8 DB (Deutsche Boerse AG) Yes Ordinary Shares DE EUR Nov 2014 Biography Fevertree Drinks Plc, together with its subsidiaries, develops and supplies premium mixer drinks in the United Kingdom, the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company’s products include Indian ... Company Analysis and Financial Data Status All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.Data Last Updated (UTC time) Company Analysis 2019/09/29 22:01 End of Day Share Price 2019/09/27 00:00 Earnings 2019/06/30 Annual Earnings 2018/12/31 Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Credit: Simply Wall Street
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02/2/2019
16:00		sogoesit: Sorry about that. Here's all of it, bamboo (The EPV bit is the last but one paragraph): "There can be no disputing that Fevertree Drinks' (FEVR) products and its share price are a phenomenon. Over the last few years its drinks – particularly its variety of premium tonics – have become deeply entrenched among Britain’s increasing number of gin and tonic drinkers. Its success is not only down to the taste and provenance of its products but is also a triumph of marketing and branding. If you walk into supermarkets you can quickly see that Fevertree totally dominates the shelf space allocated to tonic water. Many bars I have visited over the last year no longer stock Schweppes, only Fevertree. Not so long ago Schweppes was the go-to tonic of choice – in a very short space of time Fevertree has taken its place. The company has also proved itself to be a smart operator. It has no drinks manufacturing factories or bottling plants – these have been outsourced to third parties – and so hasn’t needed to tie up a lot of money in assets. When combined with the premium prices it can command for its drinks, the result has been one of the most outstandingly profitable businesses listed on the London Stock Exchange. Last year its profit margin was 33 per cent and its profits as a percentage of the money it had invested a whopping 48 per cent. Throw in rapid levels of sales growth and it’s not surprising that its share price has gone through the roof over the last few years. 2018 has been another very good year for the business as evidenced by this week’s trading update. Shareholders will have been delighted to have been told that profits “will be comfortably ahead of the board’s expectations”. We can only assume that these expectations are similar to those of City analysts who were expecting Fevertree to make pre-tax profits of £70.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of 49.8p. FEVR sales (£m) TABLE OMITTED Source: Company reports/my calculations Sales growth for the year was 39 per cent, which is an excellent result following growth of 66 per cent in 2017. The UK market continues to lead the way with impressive growth of 52 per cent. Based on the information the company has given in its trading statement, it is possible to look at the trend rates of growth in the second half of 2018 compared with the first half of the year. These are shown in the table above. UK sales growth has slowed – it had to – but is still pretty good, whereas growth in Europe and the US has accelerated, which is encouraging, because arguably they need to. If you were to constructively look for areas of potential weakness in Fevertree it is that its sales growth looks as though it is coming from too narrow a base – namely the UK and from tonic. For the company to meet the high expectations that continue to be reflected in the value of its shares, it needs to start growing significantly in the US, Europe and across different mixer drinks categories such as ginger ale and cola. The company still has a lot to prove here. The US market is key to achieving this goal as it is the biggest spirits market in the world. Here, as with other major markets, the shift to premium spirits is a strong and growing trend. The company has signed an exclusive distribution agreement with Southern Glazer’s Wines & Spirits in an attempt to get more of its mixers into US bars. It’s worth noting that Fevertree currently has sales of just £35m in the US compared with £55m in Europe and £134m in the UK. The potential to build a very big and profitable business clearly exists on paper, but the challenge is a tough one. Will American drinkers of premium bourbon mix it with Fevertree cola or stick with the iconic Coca-Cola and Pepsi brands? If they switch then the upside potential in Fevertree’s profits – and possibly its share price – is immense. In some ways, Fevertree has had some luck on its side in the UK. It is difficult not to see the response of Schweppes – still the market leader in terms of volumes sold – as anything other than slow and complacent. Its 1783 premium tonic is actually a very nice drink – possibly better than Fevertree’s – but it is virtually invisible in the shops and bars. Will Coca-Cola and Pepsi be as complacent in the US? Fevertree’s share price has unsurprisingly reacted well to its trading update. The shares peaked at over £40 in September last year, but fell back in the general market decline which saw highly valued shares suffer more than most. Despite the pullback, the shares are still richly valued. Let’s say that analysts upgrade 2018 and 2019 profit forecasts by 15 per cent. That would give EPS of 56.6p for 2018 and 65.9p for 2019. At 2,980p at the time of writing, that would put the shares on a trailing PE ratio of 52.6 times, falling to 45.2 times in 2019. I always try to get a feeling of how much of a company’s share price is explained by its current profits and how much is reliant on future profits growth. Ideally, you don’t want to pay too much for future growth – if you are a long-term rather than a momentum investor – and if more than half of the share price is dependent on it, I generally tread carefully. Taking my revised estimate of Fevertree’s 2018 operating profits of £81.2m, taxing them at 19 per cent, dividing that by my required return of 8 per cent and adding an estimate of cash balances gives an earnings power value – the value of a share if its current profits stayed unchanged forever – of 780p per share. This explains just over a quarter of the current share price with three-quarters of it explained on future profits growth. This leaves me with a view of the business and its shares that I have held for a while. Fevertree is an outstanding business but its share price requires it to keep on over delivering for many years to come. It has been very good at doing this, but it now faces a tougher challenge.
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07/1/2019
18:07		llama1978: I think it’s a great time to launch non-alcoholic spirits with more people seeming to be tee-total than ever before but I’d never pay £20 a bottle for a non-alcoholic spirit! May as well buy a bottle of elderflower cordial for about £18 less for about 4 times the volume... Good to see as all rally in the FEVR share price over the last few days. No idea why. Maybe people are realising that it’s the best time to snap up a bargain in various shares like these.
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Fevertree Drinks share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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