Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Fevertree Drinks Plc LSE:FEVR London Ordinary Share GB00BRJ9BJ26 ORD 0.25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -20.50 -1.17% 1,737.50 967,192 16:35:18
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
1,734.00 1,739.50 1,772.00 1,720.00 1,772.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Beverages 237.45 75.58 53.38 32.5 2,018
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
18:28:19 O 35,508 1,772.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
11/11/201906:06Fevertree - private investor526
08/11/201916:55Fevertree Drinks PLC (Fever-Tree)1,917
08/11/201910:49FEVER TREE with chart6,496
17/7/201907:31Fevertree147
26/3/201910:54Fevertree Drinks FY Results 26.03.19 Preview5

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Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2019-11-12 18:29:351,772.0035,508629,201.76O
2019-11-12 18:29:041,737.502584,482.75O
2019-11-12 18:28:571,772.0019,905352,716.60O
2019-11-12 18:28:541,772.004,81485,304.08O
2019-11-12 18:28:191,737.022,64645,961.58O
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DateSubject
12/11/2019
08:20
Fevertree Drinks Daily Update: Fevertree Drinks Plc is listed in the Beverages sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker FEVR. The last closing price for Fevertree Drinks was 1,758p.
Fevertree Drinks Plc has a 4 week average price of 1,720p and a 12 week average price of 1,720p.
The 1 year high share price is 3,290p while the 1 year low share price is currently 1,720p.
There are currently 116,127,158 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 934,384 shares. The market capitalisation of Fevertree Drinks Plc is £2,017,709,370.25.
30/10/2019
15:21
trying2getrichquick: Smithson jumps on the Fevertree bandwagon By Kristen McGachey. Fundsmith investment trust has 30 holdings after initiating position in drinks maker Fundsmith investment trust Smithson has become the latest small-cap manager to buy Fevertree as the drinks business’s share price falls to a more palatable level. Smithson manager Simon Barnard noted in the July factsheet for the trust that Fevertree shares were down 47% from their 2018 peak due to a lukewarm reception to a trading update. This resulted in “an attractive valuation given our estimation of the business quality and growth prospects for the company,” Barnard said in the trust’s latest update. Within the investment trust universe, the Independent Investment Trust already holds a 6.7% weighting in Fevertree, while SVM UK Emerging has a 3.8% allocation. Fidelity Investments currently owns the largest stake in the business at 8.4%, while Aberdeen Standard Investments and Morgan Stanley Investments also own 6% each. Fevertree’s share price has skyrocketed in value since the company’s IPO in November 2014, growing 23 times in under four years from 165p to £39.34 a share in September 2018. A second chance for investors who missed the boat The Share Centre investment research analyst Helal Miah viewed the recent volatility in Fevertree’s shares “as a second chance for investors who may have missed the boat a year ago”. “While we do not have a formal recommendation on the shares, we do believe Fevertree at current prices offers investors good prospects,” he said in an analyst note. “The dividend yield is very modest but the rise in the payment by 23% is encouraging.” Miah added that following the depreciation in share price, the fizzy drink maker was on “a far more palatable multiple” of 32x price to earnings (P/E) for 2020.
27/10/2019
22:00
christh: Fevertree Drinks shares worth £36 despite sell-off LATEST By Graeme Evans from interactive investor. Slower growth is never good news for highly-rated stocks, but Fevertree still has plenty of fans. Runaway success stories like Fevertree Drinks (LSE:FEVR) don’t come around often, which is why yesterday’s latest slide for the AIM stock should alert investors to a potentially enticing entry point. The sky-high valuation has weakened considerably since early May, with this morning’s 12 per cent decline triggered by the rare thing of a Fevertree update without an upgrade to expectations. Poor summer weather and tough comparatives meant UK growth was a modest 5 per cent in the six months to June 30, although yesterday’s interims were brightened by further evidence of the company’s overseas growth potential in markets including the United States. Hopes that the posh mixers firm can replicate its UK success elsewhere in the world have previously been reflected in a valuation as high as 70 times earnings. And given the company’s record of over-achievement, that’s a level some investors have been prepared to pay. Now the price/earnings (PE) valuation is closer to 40 times, with the projected PE for 2020 at 35 times, following a sharp fall in the share price from close to 4,000p last September to yesterday’s 2,060p, as the stunning sales record of recent years starts to moderate. Source: TradingView Past performance is not a guide to future performance Analysts at Numis Securities are among those in the City who think the recent sell-off has been overdone, particularly given the medium-term growth opportunities outside the UK. They have a price target of 3,600p, adding that the current valuation represented an “excellent entry point to the long-term growth opportunity”. Numis said: “The global trends underpinning simple long mixed drinks continue to support increased penetration by premium mixers. We believe that Fevertree’s leading position in the category and broad portfolio of mixers means it is well placed to capitalise on this opportunity.” This view is shared elsewhere, with Investec Securities holding a target price of 3,650p based on encouraging progress overseas and expectations that growth in the UK will accelerate in the second half of the year. Morgan Stanley has a price target of 3,400p, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoAML) is at 3,660p. In particular, BoAML said half-year growth of 31 per cent in the United States should reassure investors that the company is well placed to seize the opportunity. The country currently accounts for 17 per cent of group sales compared with 51 per cent for the UK and 25 per cent for Europe. The potential for further growth in North America is huge, with Fevertree’s move to wholly-owned operations meaning it now directly manages marketing, sales and distribution. This has already resulted in an agreement with Southern Glazer’s Wine and Spirits to be the group’s exclusive on-trade partner across numerous states. Fevertree believes it has a strong platform for growth in North America due to the premium mixer market being at a relatively early stage. However, it is likely to face fierce competition in a soft drinks market dominated by PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) and Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO). Analysts at Jefferies said the US growth had been slightly weaker than its own expectations for 38 per cent, but added that this still represented a visible step-up in performance. They have a more modest price target of 2,700p, which reflects fears about growth moderating in the UK. They wrote: “Fevertree is an attractive medium-term growth story given the international premium mixer opportunity. There’s a risk of hiatus in the near-term as the UK moderates before the US/international accelerate.” Fevertree joined the stock market in November 2014 at a price of 134p. Since then, it has gained a reputation for strong sales growth and regular upgrades to profit forecasts. In the UK, it has benefited from the popularity of the long-mixed drink, such as gin & tonic, vodka & ginger beer or whiskey & ginger ale. Chief executive Tim Warrillow pointed out yesterday that the trend towards long mixed drinks was gathering momentum and starting to win share from beer and wine. He added: “We are increasingly optimistic about the global opportunity for Fevertree and continue to invest across all our regions, particularly the US and Europe.” These articles are provided for information purposes only. Occasionally, an opinion about whether to buy or sell a specific investment may be provided by third parties. The content is not intended to be a personal recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or product, or to adopt any investment strategy as it is not provided based on an assessment of your investing knowledge and experience, your financial situation or your investment objectives. The value of your investments, and the income derived from them, may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.
30/9/2019
21:36
trying2getrichquick: Fevertree Drinks Market Cap - UK£2.8b Last Updated - 2019/09/29 22:01 UTC Executive Summary Fevertree Drinks Plc, together with its subsidiaries, develops and supplies premium mixer drinks in the United Kingdom, the United States, Europe, and internationally. Snowflake Fundamentals Flawless balance sheet with solid track record. Share Price & News How has Fevertree Drinks's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes? Latest Share Price and Events Market Performance 7 Day Return 0.6% FEVR 2.1% GB Beverage 0.2% GB Market 1 Year Return -32.9% FEVR 15.7% GB Beverage -1.8% GB Market Return vs Industry: FEVR underperformed the UK Beverage industry which returned 15.7% over the past year. Return vs Market: FEVR underperformed the UK Market which returned -1.8% over the past year. Share holder returns FEVR Industry Market 7 Day 0.6% 2.1% 0.2% 30 Day 7.1% -4.7% 3.3% 90 Day 4.8% -3.0% -0.4% 1 Year -32.5%-32.9% 18.9%15.7% 2.8%-1.8% 3 Year 153.1%149.6% 62.1%50.3% 21.3%6.8% 5 Year n/a 112.2%85.4% 36.2%7.3% Price Volatility Vs. Market Valuation Is Fevertree Drinks undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market? Analysis Checks 0/6 44.15x Price to Earnings (PE) ratio Intrinsic Value Based on Future Cash Flows 25.8%Overvalued Current PriceUK£24.21Fair ValueUK£19.2520% UndervaluedAbout Right20% Overvalued Undervalued: FEVR (£24.21) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£19.25) Significantly Undervalued: FEVR is trading above our estimate of fair value. Price Based on Earnings }}}0x10x20x30x40x50x60x PE Ratio company 44.1x industry 25.2x market 16x PE vs Industry: FEVR is poor value based on its PE Ratio (44.1x) compared to the Beverage industry average (25.2x). PE vs Market: FEVR is poor value based on its PE Ratio (44.1x) compared to the UK market (16x). Price Based on Expected Growth }0x1x2x3x4x PEG Ratio company 4.2x Low PEG Ratio: FEVR is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (4.2x) Price Based on Value of Assets }}}0x5x10x15x20x PB Ratio company 14x industry 3.6x market 1.5x PB vs Industry: FEVR is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (14x) compared to the GB Beverage industry average (3.6x). Next Steps Explore potentially undervalued companies in the Food, Beverage & Tobacco industry. Future Growth How is Fevertree Drinks expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 11 analysts? Analysis Checks 3/6 10.5% Forecasted annual earnings growth Earnings and Revenue Growth Estimates GBPRevenueCash FlowEarnings Growth Rates20172018201920202021202220232024£0£500MActualEstimated Future Annual Growth Analysis company10.5%industry6.9% market12.5% forecast annual earnings growth company12.3%industry5.6% market4.1% forecast annual revenue growth Earnings vs Savings Rate: FEVR's forecast earnings growth (10.5% per year) is above the savings rate (1.2%). Earnings vs Market: FEVR's earnings (10.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the UK market (12.5% per year). High Growth Earnings: FEVR's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly. Revenue vs Market: FEVR's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.1% per year). High Growth Revenue: FEVR's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year. Earnings per Share Growth Estimates GBP 20172018201920202021202220232024£0.2£1 Historical Range of past estimates Analyst's estimate Range of estimates Future Return on Equity }}0%10%20%30%40% Future ROE (3yrs) company 26.4% industry 18.1% High Future ROE: FEVR's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (26.4%) Past Performance How has Fevertree Drinks performed over the past 5 years? Analysis Checks 5/6 48.6% Historical annual earnings growth Earnings and Revenue History GBPRevenueCash FlowEarningsOperating Expenses Growth Rate20132014201520162017201820192020£-50M£300M Past Earnings Growth Analysis company48.6%industry8.6% market13.4% past 5 years annual earnings growth company21.1%industry4.6% market6.8% last 1 year earnings growth Earnings Trend: FEVR's earnings have grown significantly by 48.6% per year over the past 5 years. Accelerating Growth: FEVR's earnings growth over the past year (21.1%) is below its 5-year average (48.6% per year). Earnings vs Industry: FEVR earnings growth over the past year (21.1%) exceeded the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland industry 4.6%. Return on Equity }}0%10%20%30%40% ROE company 31.7% industry 18.1% High ROE: FEVR's Return on Equity (31.7%) is considered high. Return on Assets }}0%2%4%6%8%10% ROA company 26.5% industry 8.5% ROA vs Industry: FEVR has a higher Return on Assets than the Beverage industry average last year. Return on Capital Employed }}0%10%20%30% ROCE last year 38.4% 3 years ago 27.6% ROCE Improving: FEVR has significantly improved its Return on Capital Employed over the past 3 years. Financial Health How is Fevertree Drinks's financial position? Analysis Checks 5/6 Financial Position Analysis GBP 20132014201520162017201820192020£0£250MNet worth GBPShort termLong termNet worth LiabilitiesAssets Short Term Liabilities: FEVR's short term assets (£189.9M) exceeds its short term liabilities (£36.7M) Long Term Liabilities: FEVR's short term assets (£189.9M) exceeds its long term liabilities (£1.5M) Debt to Equity History and Analysis GBPDebtNet worth (Equity)Cash 20132014201520162017201820192020£-50M£250M Debt Level: FEVR is debt free. Reducing Debt: FEVR currently has no debt however we can't compare to 5 years ago as we have no data for that period. Debt Coverage: FEVR has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow. Interest Coverage: FEVR has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern. Balance Sheet Assets Cash + Short termInvestmentsReceivablesInventoryPh230;Long term +Other Assets Liabilities + Equity EquityDebtAccountsPayableOtherLiabilities Inventory Level: FEVR has a low level of unsold assets or inventory. Debt Coverage by Assets: Insufficient data to determine if FEVR's debt is covered by short term assets. Dividend What is Fevertree Drinks's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability? Analysis Checks 0/6 0.80% Expected Dividend Yield Dividend Yield and Payments Analysis DPSFEVR DPSFEVR YieldBeverageMarket 201620172018201920202021202220232024£0£0.3 2.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.6% Notable Dividend: FEVR's dividend (0.6%%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.97%%). High Dividend: FEVR's dividend (0.6%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.47%). Stable Dividend: FEVR is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable. Growing Dividend: FEVR is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing. Current Payout to Shareholders 28%Now Retained byFevertree Drin…Paid to you Dividend Coverage: FEVR is not paying a notable dividend for . Future Payout to Shareholders 30%+3 yrs Retained byFevertree Drin…Paid to you Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of FEVR's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the UK market. Management What is the CEO of Fevertree Drinks's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading? 3.3yrs Average board tenure CEO Tim Warrillow (44yo) 0yrs Tenure UK£3,981,000 Compensation Mr. Timothy Daniel Gray Warrillow, also known as Tim, is a Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director at Fevertree Drinks Plc. Mr. Warrillow joined a London-based advertising and branding a ... CEO Compensation Analysis GBPTotal CompensationSalaryFevertree Drinks EPS 2014201520162017201820192020£0UK£5m Compensation vs. Market: Tim's total compensation ($USD4.90M) is about average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD2.26M). Compensation vs Earnings: Tim's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year. Board Age and Tenure 3.3yrs Average Tenure 55yo Average Age Experienced Board: FEVR's board of directors are considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure). Insider Trading SOLDBOUGHTSold by companiesSold by individualsBought by companiesBought by individuals0-3 months3-6 months6-9 months9-12 months Insider Buying: FEVR insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months. Recent Insider Transactions AIM:FEVR Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or IndividualsDate Value Name Entity Role Shares Max Price 16 Aug 19 BuyUK£43,320 Jeff Popkin Individual 2,000 UK£21.66 25 Jul 19 BuyUK£289,561 Kevin Havelock Individual 13,298 UK£21.99 07 Dec 18 BuyUK£67,843 Jeff Popkin Individual 2,933 UK£23.17 11 Oct 18 BuyUK£167,946 Kevin Havelock Individual 5,727 UK£29.55 Ownership Breakdown General PublicIndividual InsidersPrivate CompaniesInstitutions Institutions Private Companies Individual Insiders General Public Management Team Charles Rolls (62yo) Co-Founder & Non-Executive Deputy Chairman Tenure: 0yrs Tim Warrillow (44yo) Co-Founder Tenure: 0yrs Compensation: UK£3.98m Andy Branchflower (40yo) Finance Director Tenure: 4.9yrs Compensation: UK£1.92m Saskia Stoop (35yo) Head of Marketing Tenure: 0yrs Claire Huntingford (38yo) Head of Supply Chain Tenure: 0yrs Charles Gibb Global Strategy Director & CEO of North American Tenure: 1.8yrs Oliver Winters Communications & IR Director Tenure: 0yrs Board Members Bill Ronald (63yo) Non-Executive Chairman Tenure: 6.3yrs Compensation: UK£125.00k Coline McConville (55yo) Independent Non-Executive Director Tenure: 4.8yrs Compensation: UK£58.00k Jeff Popkin (54yo) Independent Non Executive Director Tenure: 1.7yrs Compensation: UK£46.00k Kevin Havelock (61yo) Independent Non-executive Director Tenure: 1.7yrs Compensation: UK£46.00k Domenic De Lorenzo (55yo) Independent Non-Executive Director Tenure: 1.3yrs Compensation: UK£30.00k Charles Rolls (62yo) Co-Founder & Non-Executive Deputy Chairman Tenure: 0yrs Tim Warrillow (44yo) Co-Founder Tenure: 0yrs Compensation: UK£3.98m Andy Branchflower (40yo) Finance Director Tenure: 4.9yrs Compensation: UK£1.92m Company Information Fevertree Drinks Plc's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources Key Information Fevertree Drinks Plc logo Name: Fevertree Drinks Plc Ticker: FEVR Exchange: AIM Founded: 2013 Industry: Soft Drinks Sector: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Market Cap: UK£2.811b Shares outstanding: 116.13m Website: hxxps://www.fever-tree.com Fevertree Drinks Plc 186 -188 Shepherds Bush Road London Greater London W6 7NL United Kingdom Listings Ticker Exchange Primary Security Security Type Country Currency Listed on FEVR AIM (London Stock Exchange AIM Market) Yes Ordinary Shares GB GBP Nov 2014 FQVT.F OTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC) Yes Ordinary Shares US USD Nov 2014 FV8 DB (Deutsche Boerse AG) Yes Ordinary Shares DE EUR Nov 2014 Biography Fevertree Drinks Plc, together with its subsidiaries, develops and supplies premium mixer drinks in the United Kingdom, the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company’s products include Indian ... Company Analysis and Financial Data Status All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.Data Last Updated (UTC time) Company Analysis 2019/09/29 22:01 End of Day Share Price 2019/09/27 00:00 Earnings 2019/06/30 Annual Earnings 2018/12/31 Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Credit: Simply Wall Street
09/9/2019
06:18
christh: The summer was very good for fevertree as demand for drinks was high Despite the negativity in the share price the company is thriving and achieving its targets. It will make a similar announcement like previously that the results will be ahead its expectations. The management never dissapointed the market and the results always double or treble previous years. The US market share in mixers has been increasing and if the reach 40% or higher then it will establish itself and boost the share price in the £50 or higher. Growth is the key to this company and has always been delivered.
04/8/2019
11:25
sogoesit: This week's Shares Magazine sees FT as a "bargain share"... buy now for good value in a few years: "WHY HAS THE SHARE PRICE BEEN WEAK? Shares in upmarket mixer brand Fevertree Drinks (FEVR:AIM) have been on something of a rollercoaster. Having started the year at roughly £22, they raced up to £32 by the end of May only to give back all their gains in the past two months. Investors have gone through a whole range of emo ons, from op mism and euphoria to disappointment and despondency. When the long-awaited rst-half results were released last week, revealing that sales growth had slowed to 13% and earnings growth had slowed to just 7%, many holders capitulated and sold out. The shares lost almost 10% on the day of the announcement, the second me this year that they have been heavily punished for not mee ng expecta ons. In common with other drinks companies Fevertree had a blow-out start to the summer last year thanks to a combina on of hot weather and big spor ng events which boosted UK sales. This year the summer has got o to a soggy start, and with no major events to celebrate. Sales have been steady but growth is well below last year’s levels. Ironically the rst-half results came out as much of the UK was experiencing its ho est July ever so it is quite possible that the third quarter will see a strong rebound in consump on but we won’t know for some me. The UK s ll represents roughly half of group sales so a slowdown to 5% growth in the rst-half has acted as a major drag on the numbers. WHAT COULD SPARK A RE-RATING? The major growth driver for Fevertree going forward is the US market, where it had shown reasonable growth for 10 years via its agent but decided 18 months ago to take a much more hands-on approach and manage it directly. The step-change occurred last summer when the group signed an exclusive on-trade distribu on deal with SGWS, the largest North American wine and spirits distributor. Given the size of the US market (es mated to be 16 mes the size of the UK mixer market) and the increasing trend towards premium drinks and mixers, even a small increase in its current 11% market share would mean a signi cant increase in sales and earnings over me. According to S&P Global Intelligence, pre-tax pro t is forecast to rise from roughly £75m last year to £106m in three years, bringing the price-to-earnings (PE) ra o down from 41- mes to 28- mes. Yes, the shares command a premium ra ng but we believe the company con nues to have a very strong outlook with scope to deliver large earnings growth for years to come. Current share price weakness may even spur takeover interest from trade players such as Diageo (DGE) and Unilever (ULVR), or private equity." I have no position any more. Last sales at around £22 although chart support at around £21.50.
25/7/2019
09:31
fuji99: Stories on stocks change all the time as is the share price. So I won't be surprised if the trend is reversed next week with another story from another "analyst". For daytraders, the share price behaviour may appear illogical as they expected the drop to continue. For the long term holders, they ignore the share price daily fluctuations as these will appear as blips in a few years.
20/6/2019
10:04
fuji99: I am very interested to know what analysts or anyone else come with, if say one extrapolates just 5 - 10% capture of the US market by FeverTree. How this will boost its sales ? Extra £80, £100 million per year ? This will be the most exciting part of FEVR business - 10 times more than the UK and more than 3/4 times the whole of Europe. This is also what will kick start the share price to over £50+ within a year as soon as it flags up the distribution process in the US. The market usually anticipates well in advance any positive or negative for any company. So IMO I am expecting the share price to rise sharply as soon as positive noises start to come from the US. To me this will add at least 30% to the share price.
02/2/2019
16:00
sogoesit: Sorry about that. Here's all of it, bamboo (The EPV bit is the last but one paragraph): "There can be no disputing that Fevertree Drinks' (FEVR) products and its share price are a phenomenon. Over the last few years its drinks – particularly its variety of premium tonics – have become deeply entrenched among Britain’s increasing number of gin and tonic drinkers. Its success is not only down to the taste and provenance of its products but is also a triumph of marketing and branding. If you walk into supermarkets you can quickly see that Fevertree totally dominates the shelf space allocated to tonic water. Many bars I have visited over the last year no longer stock Schweppes, only Fevertree. Not so long ago Schweppes was the go-to tonic of choice – in a very short space of time Fevertree has taken its place. The company has also proved itself to be a smart operator. It has no drinks manufacturing factories or bottling plants – these have been outsourced to third parties – and so hasn’t needed to tie up a lot of money in assets. When combined with the premium prices it can command for its drinks, the result has been one of the most outstandingly profitable businesses listed on the London Stock Exchange. Last year its profit margin was 33 per cent and its profits as a percentage of the money it had invested a whopping 48 per cent. Throw in rapid levels of sales growth and it’s not surprising that its share price has gone through the roof over the last few years. 2018 has been another very good year for the business as evidenced by this week’s trading update. Shareholders will have been delighted to have been told that profits “will be comfortably ahead of the board’s expectations”. We can only assume that these expectations are similar to those of City analysts who were expecting Fevertree to make pre-tax profits of £70.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of 49.8p. FEVR sales (£m) TABLE OMITTED Source: Company reports/my calculations Sales growth for the year was 39 per cent, which is an excellent result following growth of 66 per cent in 2017. The UK market continues to lead the way with impressive growth of 52 per cent. Based on the information the company has given in its trading statement, it is possible to look at the trend rates of growth in the second half of 2018 compared with the first half of the year. These are shown in the table above. UK sales growth has slowed – it had to – but is still pretty good, whereas growth in Europe and the US has accelerated, which is encouraging, because arguably they need to. If you were to constructively look for areas of potential weakness in Fevertree it is that its sales growth looks as though it is coming from too narrow a base – namely the UK and from tonic. For the company to meet the high expectations that continue to be reflected in the value of its shares, it needs to start growing significantly in the US, Europe and across different mixer drinks categories such as ginger ale and cola. The company still has a lot to prove here. The US market is key to achieving this goal as it is the biggest spirits market in the world. Here, as with other major markets, the shift to premium spirits is a strong and growing trend. The company has signed an exclusive distribution agreement with Southern Glazer’s Wines & Spirits in an attempt to get more of its mixers into US bars. It’s worth noting that Fevertree currently has sales of just £35m in the US compared with £55m in Europe and £134m in the UK. The potential to build a very big and profitable business clearly exists on paper, but the challenge is a tough one. Will American drinkers of premium bourbon mix it with Fevertree cola or stick with the iconic Coca-Cola and Pepsi brands? If they switch then the upside potential in Fevertree’s profits – and possibly its share price – is immense. In some ways, Fevertree has had some luck on its side in the UK. It is difficult not to see the response of Schweppes – still the market leader in terms of volumes sold – as anything other than slow and complacent. Its 1783 premium tonic is actually a very nice drink – possibly better than Fevertree’s – but it is virtually invisible in the shops and bars. Will Coca-Cola and Pepsi be as complacent in the US? Fevertree’s share price has unsurprisingly reacted well to its trading update. The shares peaked at over £40 in September last year, but fell back in the general market decline which saw highly valued shares suffer more than most. Despite the pullback, the shares are still richly valued. Let’s say that analysts upgrade 2018 and 2019 profit forecasts by 15 per cent. That would give EPS of 56.6p for 2018 and 65.9p for 2019. At 2,980p at the time of writing, that would put the shares on a trailing PE ratio of 52.6 times, falling to 45.2 times in 2019. I always try to get a feeling of how much of a company’s share price is explained by its current profits and how much is reliant on future profits growth. Ideally, you don’t want to pay too much for future growth – if you are a long-term rather than a momentum investor – and if more than half of the share price is dependent on it, I generally tread carefully. Taking my revised estimate of Fevertree’s 2018 operating profits of £81.2m, taxing them at 19 per cent, dividing that by my required return of 8 per cent and adding an estimate of cash balances gives an earnings power value – the value of a share if its current profits stayed unchanged forever – of 780p per share. This explains just over a quarter of the current share price with three-quarters of it explained on future profits growth. This leaves me with a view of the business and its shares that I have held for a while. Fevertree is an outstanding business but its share price requires it to keep on over delivering for many years to come. It has been very good at doing this, but it now faces a tougher challenge.
07/1/2019
18:07
llama1978: I think it’s a great time to launch non-alcoholic spirits with more people seeming to be tee-total than ever before but I’d never pay £20 a bottle for a non-alcoholic spirit! May as well buy a bottle of elderflower cordial for about £18 less for about 4 times the volume... Good to see as all rally in the FEVR share price over the last few days. No idea why. Maybe people are realising that it’s the best time to snap up a bargain in various shares like these.
12/10/2018
19:01
christh: 5 Top AIM Stocks Held by Fund Managers ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fevertree, ASOS and boohoo.com have been just three AIM success stories in recent years. Here are the companies that top UK smaller company fund managers like right now David Brenchley 7 February, 2018 | 8:52AM Fevertree tonic mixer, gin, top AIM stocks, fund managers While they come with plenty of risk, smaller companies can offer investors better growth opportunities than their larger counterparts. The better performing funds of 2017 had growth mandates, meaning the UK funds that did best were looking for opportunities in indices with smaller constituents than the blue-chip FTSE 100. The Alternative Investment Market (AIM) was launched in 1995, as a place for smaller UK companies to float on. It offers investors willing to take on an extra level of risk in return for the potential of greater returns some cracking companies. The likes of ASOS (ASC), boohoo.com (BOO) and FeverTree (FEVR) all have market capitalisations of over £2 billion – more than some FTSE 250 firms. Despite their high profiles, they are still happily holding onto their AIM listing. They, and many others, have helped the AIM All-Share outpace the FTSE 100 fivefold and the FTSE 250 by two times over the past three years. We screened the five funds in the Investment Association UK Smaller Companies sector that are rated Gold or Silver by Morningstar analysts to check out which stocks they are holding using the Morningstar X-Ray Tool. Fevertree Unsurprisingly, Fevertree is top of the pops among smaller company funds given its stellar success and accounts for a good amount of three of the five portfolios. Old Mutual UK Smaller Companies, the only Gold-rated fund in our list, has a position of more than 4%. Old Mutual is the largest institutional holder of the stock, owning almost 10% and second only to Charles Rolls, who founded the company with Tim Warrillow. It floated on the stock market back in November 2014 and has surged 1,770% since to trade at a shade over £25 today. The firm makes premium carbonated mixers for alcoholic beverages, including tonic water for use with gin – a fast-growing drink for Britons. While the valuation has run away with itself, both revenues and sales have grown consistently by around 70% year-on-year since 2014. Fevertree said in a trading update 12 days ago that results for full-year 2017, due out in March, will be “comfortably ahead of market expectations”, so expect some further juice in the share price in the short term. SLI UK Smaller Companies has 3% of its portfolio in Fevertree, while River & Mercantile UK Equity Smaller Companies has 2.5%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Smart Metering Systems (SMS) Another “ten-bagger”, Smart Metering Systems floated in 2011 at 60p per share. It currently trades hands at 740p – growth of 1,133%. The market cap stands at £669 million. This time, Old Mutual is the largest shareholder, having got in at the initial public offering and Dan Nickols’ fund has recently upped its stake. It currently represents 2.88% of his portfolio, 4.23% of the River & Mercantile fund and 2.29% of the Standard Life offering. The Glasgow-based company owns and operates gas and electricity meters on behalf of major energy companies like Centrica, E.ON, Gazprom and SSE. Results for the six months to June 30 2017 saw SMS increase revenue by 14% to £36.8 million with a slight improvement in pre-tax profits but decrease in earnings per share of 10%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- First Derivatives (FDP) Capitalised at just over £1 billion, First Derivatives is a more seasoned listed company. Its share price has doubled since the start of 2017 and is the largest holding in the Standard Life fund at 5% of assets. The Old Mutual offering has a small position. It’s not widely owned by institutions, with chief executive and founder Brian Conlon still hanging on to around a third of shares. It’s also the second largest holding in the Bronze-rated Slater Growth Fund. First Derivatives provides software products and consulting services to institutions in the finance, technology and energy sectors. It also supplies technology to enable the Red Bull racing team to analyse data during Formula 1 Grand Prix races. Its results for the six months to 31 August 2017 showed revenue up 21% and adjusted pre-tax profits up 13%. Chairman Seamus Keating said full-year performance is expected to be ahead of the board’s expectations. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- GB Group (GBG) Cyber security firm GB Group has been a listed company for more than 25 years, but moved to AIM in August 2010. Then trading at 25p, it’s now up to 429p. GB provides identity verification services to prevent fraud to blue-chip names such as carmaker Ford, apparel seller Nike and global banking giant HSBC. The share price had a wobble late last year, falling 40% in the space five weeks to trade at 210p after the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States in November. It’s bounced back since, though, more than doubling. GB is highly cash generative with an experienced and incentivised management team, according to sellside broker finnCap. It has seen long-term double-digit organic growth and has recurring revenue streams. A forecast yield of 1% for 2018 is decent for a growing company, especially considering the dividend is growing at 10%-plus every year and is well covered by earnings. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Octopus Investments, a provider of venture capital trusts, is the largest shareholder at over 10% with Standard Life Aberdeen and Canaccord Genuity next. The SLI fund has a 2.5% position in GB and Artemis UK Smaller Companies has 1.3%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Blue Prism (PRSM) Blue Prism is another success story for AIM’s tech sector. The company provides robotics software that enables large companies to automate many mundane back-office tasks, freeing their employees to carry out more important activities. The firm debuted on AIM in March 2016 at 78p. In almost two years, its share price has shot up over 1,500% to £13 today. But with that stellar share price growth comes questions over valuations, and some fund managers have recently taken profits on their holdings in Blue Prism. One of those is James Baker, manager of Chelverton UK Growth. Baker told Morningstar recently that he exited his position in mid-2017 at around 800p – “much too early” despite having made eight times his money. His reasoning, though, was that Blue Prism’s “market capitalisation to sales ratio was becoming unsustainable fast”. Although some board members have been taking profits in recent months, management still own significant portions of the stock. Old Mutual owns a fifth of the company and Nickols’ fund has 2.58% of its assets invested. hTtp://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/164887/5-top-aim-stocks-held-by-fund-managers.aspx/
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