Evraz Share Discussion Threads

[casket1] 11/2/2022 12:53

OIABM - Try Interactive Brokers (not to be confused with Interactive Investors)

[pander45] 11/2/2022 12:31

Strange price action here today. Pre adjustment rise.

[pander45] 11/2/2022 11:41

Sweep stake bets for the Monday low?

[onceinabluemoon] 11/2/2022 10:46

Does anyone know of a UK broker who offer Moscow stock market exchange trades? So I can stay fully invested rather going through the sale process? As I would like to sell my shares today and buy with a broker who will keep the Russian shares in my account. I looked at the big players AJ Bell, HL, iii, IG and couldn’t see any offered to trade on Moscow exchange.

[robizm] 11/2/2022 10:41

This will drop Monday but nobody knows how much. People will also buy back in Monday as they sold to avoid capital being tied up.

[casket1] 11/2/2022 10:37

Question :- If the demerger date was announced on the 15th Dec 21 (when I believe the share price was 608p) and the RASP entitlement was .42555 shares per every EVR share, held then at the record date of 15th Feb 22 would the EVR adjusted share price be 608 x .57445 or 350. Can I assume this price was not fixed at the time of the initial announcement ?

Based on the current share price of 425 then surely an adjusted price at record date would be 425 x .57445, being 245, or thereabouts....

Not heard anything about a reduction to the dividend, and expect the next one to be around end of May, at 20c

Think RASP was around 375r at announcement, and is currently trading around 450r.

If the price was not fixed at announcement then you should have lost money based on the EVR share price which has fallen 30%, but made 20% on the RASP share price movement.

[elpirata] 10/2/2022 21:19

I expect the share price will be volatile on Monday 'ex split divi' so I'll be buying back in tranches rather than risk being spiked on a single trade

[scrwal] 10/2/2022 21:09

I reckon on Monday it may be 275p based on the theoretical with RASP discounted by 20%. If the market doesn't discount RASP then it's 235-40p subject to tomorrows movements.

[pander45] 10/2/2022 20:35

This is heading for 300.

[tigerbythetail] 10/2/2022 15:16

I think we'll find out on Monday that the share price will fall far less than the implied £1.93 value of the RASP shares.
I think the share price will only fall about £1. Because that's what the market thinks the RASP shares will be sold off for.
This is all other things being equal, of course. One of Putin's superyachts (he has three) has just set sail from a German shipyard, despite its repairs not being complete. It's like its owner might know something is coming...

[gfrae] 10/2/2022 14:35

Or.. that is all in the price.

[tigerbythetail] 10/2/2022 14:19

The trouble is that the RASP shares will be sold off when the coal price will likely be lower, and also (effectively) in a "forced sale" process.
Theoretically, each EVR share bought today should benefit from a RASP dividend worth about £1.93 come next November. But I make the truth of the RASP dividend to be nearer £1.
Add in demotion for EVR from FTSE 100 as well, and stir in some extra Russian / Ukrainian tension, and you have a recipe for a continued slump in the share price.

[scrwal] 10/2/2022 12:55

akadingos

The capital reduction you refer to is separate from the RASP demerger as it relates to the reclassification of reserves to facilitate said demerger I believe.

[doubleorquits] 10/2/2022 11:44

As scrwal pointed out EVR as a sole entity may now be facing elimination from FTSE 100 so maybe more falls to come. Next reshuffle around March 2nd.

[doubleorquits] 10/2/2022 11:44

4th November - which is why many have sold ahead of demerger. It does say BY 4th November so it may be credited earlier.

[geordy2] 10/2/2022 09:52

Thx Gary, is that 11th April or 4th November, if the latter why the delay ?

[garycook] 10/2/2022 09:02

The RASP shares will be sold in a sale share facility,unless you have a Broker that trade,s on the Moscow stock exchange.Proceeds with be received 04/11/2022 in USD to your current UK broker.

[geordy2] 10/2/2022 08:57

What happens to the RASP shares that are received. Can you sell them straight away or do you have to hold them for a period.

[garycook] 10/2/2022 03:04

scrawl,RASP ended up 11% at 461.If EVR are 250p on Monday,I will be filling my boots !

[scrwal] 09/2/2022 18:29

double

I think the trackers etc may regard RASP as quasi EVR so could sell them and buy EVR in its place.

If there is any further price weakness then EVR could end up being demoted from the 100 as its current market cap is c£7bn with the automatic exit point at c£4bn so a 10% drop following the demerger puts it at risk.

Your target price is in the right region , I like everybody else assumed you were referring to the demerged price - sorry.

I would assume the dividend would be reduced by a third and as I stated earlier on I assumed for my own purposes it is 35c pa but expect it to be higher in some years but not much lower in lean years. I think the company intended to distribute $300m yearly as a minimum which is about 20c so it may still keep to that.

Based on my basic calculation the demerged price is now 250p as RASP is up to 43% of the EVR value.

[doubleorquits] 09/2/2022 17:38

scrwal,
Yes, very volatile today with a range of 441 to 484 and finishing near the lows of the day. I guess there will be those that can hold and trade the RASP shares so they may well deem these price falls as opportunities to buy now and claim the entitlement.

The other factor to consider IMO is that FTSE tracker funds and other fund managers may well not be able to hold the new shares (trackers definitely) so I wonder what their approach is.

[doubleorquits] 09/2/2022 17:30

I probably didn't explain myself clearly - sorry! What I was intending to outline is that whatever the immediate fall is early next week my price TARGET is around 340-375p for some point in the (near future) based on the 600p+ price of not so long ago. Therefore, I am happy to see it fall to 260p or less. As you say, scrwal, Putin has undoubtedly had some effect on the price as well so add that to the mix and it could be the bargain of the year when the uncertainty goes away. However, if the diplomatic route fails we could be looking at further falls and top-up opportunities although I think the general market will throw up lots of equally cheap opportunities.

The dividend here will hopefully be retained at the same sort of rate which makes it extra value in my eyes. That has been choppy to say the least but always high - just sometimes it is extra high and they throw in an extra one for good measure.

[gfrae] 09/2/2022 17:12

Well that may be optimistic, if the shares are priced roughly right then they should fall to about 2.60 !

[scrwal] 09/2/2022 16:38

double

I was assuming the 15th was the trigger date so if it is the 14th then a normal price drop will occur this Friday.

Using a 600p start point could be inaccurate as that was before Putin stirred things up,

Monday will be interesting because I am sure there could be a lot of private investors who may not fully understand what will happen so the fall may be increased if there is some panic selling.

Given how the price had a little rally this morning and has now capitulated again there may well be continued selling for the rest of the week.