Easyjet Share Discussion Threads

[sapphireblue1] 26/7/2024 09:32

I can't see why you expect or value any director buying. How much director buying have you seen in easyJet. Just those who take a salary bonus in shares.
The directors are rewarded by performance why would they buy shares? I wouldn't.
You need to understand that the things that derail the business are not seen or known by directors.
Easyjet even gets derailed by the nonsense spoken by another airline CEO. How can the directors of easyJet see any advantage

[essentialinvestor] 26/7/2024 09:13

No director buying post update..still

[sapphireblue1] 26/7/2024 09:03

Cogs if I were easyjet I would wait until September as it's a weaker hand for the pilots after the summer.

[sapphireblue1] 26/7/2024 09:02

Forever has it done that so far. They have gone from zero to £180m in a couple of years.
Easyjet holidays relationship with hotels is very different. This is why hotels are signing up.
The OTAs don't have aircraft so cannot act like this. Easyjet have no allocation or blocked rooms so zero waste. The hoteliers bid for the holidays. On days they want to fill they bid competitively on other days they either don't bid or bid high and likely it's not filled.
Hoteliers will choose easyjet over others because of the flexibility.
This means that the hoteliers are the ones varying their price not easyJet.

[foreverbull] 26/7/2024 08:38

If they try to grow the holiday business vs other players such as OTB, Booking etc this will nothing but impact holiday business margin. Any thoughts on that Saphh?

[cogs1] 26/7/2024 08:35

You would think though, if EZJ are so close to getting this over the line they would press on and get it sorted, from a PR point of view if nothing else.

[sapphireblue1] 26/7/2024 08:35

The performance is very visible and the last quarter landed firmly within my £220-250m range.
The airline business is producing modest growth and the holiday business substantial growth.
In 25 it's likely in my opinion for the holiday business to deliver around one third of the annual profit from around 8% of the seats flown. Clearly the priority is to grow the holiday business market share. This is going to further squeeze Ryan and Jet2.
Watch out for stress in the OTAs

[sapphireblue1] 26/7/2024 08:26

Still no vote on the pilot pay deal. No guidance from BALPA. This is for pay from April 25 onwards
Easyjet are in no hurry and there's no motivation to disrupt the summer. This is because despite the narrow rejection BALPA had recommended acceptance.
BALPA are keeping their heads down on this during this busy time.

[cogs1] 26/7/2024 08:10

Has this actually been reported anywhere then - if not, why not? Mind you, if it is confirmed the share price will probably drop!!! ?

[trying2trade] 26/7/2024 07:42

The pilots pay deal is all sorted. I know sapphire is in deep denial about it, but it is done.

[trying2trade] 26/7/2024 07:40

You said it would be 250 in the update just gone, before cutting your predictions in the weeks before. Even a broken clock is right twice a day

[sapphireblue1] 26/7/2024 07:25

The winter schedule is the biggest and they are flying genuine winter sun routes. I expect these to have a high percentage of easyjet holidays customers.
Looking ahead Q1 breakeven, reducing Q2 loss are the challenges. Next year the holiday business will grow substantially. £250m profit is possible.

[noramping] 26/7/2024 07:22

Profit in a quarter isn't profit for the year, some would like to calculate the PE based on the profitable quarter but not the ones they make a big loss in.

They won't make £1bn this year, you have to subtract losses.

[sapphireblue1] 26/7/2024 06:55

If the business wide performance continues the trend this year they would make a headline £603m profit when considering the holiday business increase. That's assuming the holiday business achieved £180m profit which it should from guidance given with just 5 weeks to go of the period.
Airline performance has been marginally up so far which leads me to think profit will be around £630m this year given this is the busiest quarter.
The good news is in Q3 they achieved a 49% increase in profit on a 33% increase of customers. So we see margin per head increasing with economy of scale.
The share price is absolutely ridiculous.

[sapphireblue1] 26/7/2024 06:15

This year they make £550m profit if Q4 is flat across holiday and airline. I think that they will exceed last year because they have more seats flying this year and easyJet holidays have a larger percentage of the more seats allocated. I believe that Easyjet will be around £600-700m headline profit for the year. That's up from £455m last year.
Huge range depending on the level of disruption but it will definitely be well ahead of last year as they have been at everything quarter.

[amt] 26/7/2024 05:46

If EZJ make their 1bn profit in the medium term then the on a pe of 10 the share price would be about 14 quid.
So how likely is the 1 billion.
Let's say they only make half that then still a share price of 7 quid.
It looks cheap to me but always a risk of a pandemic I suppose.

[essentialinvestor] 25/7/2024 15:16

I agree EZJ look to have nice profitability upside on the package holiday business.

They should be capable of winning market share from JET2.

[sapphireblue1] 25/7/2024 15:15

I am good despite the heat but I am still not a man.

[essentialinvestor] 25/7/2024 15:15

Exactly ffs, no view expressed here makes one jot of difference to the share price

Why are directors not adding post update..?

Goven the compelling growth story and all.

[undervaluedassets] 25/7/2024 15:01

Sapphire. you need to chill man.

[sapphireblue1] 25/7/2024 14:54

Ryanair are fine......did you not read the update. They are not at all fine. Their business model is no longer relevant for many people. Easyjet holidays are removing some of the DIY holiday business. Ryanair needs to move quickly to arrest the slide or maintaining their fleet size will not be viable. As more choice becomes available ryanair catchment shrinks. Nobody will travel to fly scabby Air.
When they report a poor summer people will take notice.
I have said it many times. I am speaking with people here in Malta and on the Costa del sol and they are on their first package. Converted from ryanair to easyJet holidays.

[undervaluedassets] 25/7/2024 14:45

Do you know what.. Ryanair are fine. Easyjet are (for the moment) better than fine

A bad quarter does not condemn a company. Warren Buffet says as much ... can't remember the quote but it is something like "a bad quarter is really bad reason to sell a great company" Ryanair is fine. Just for the moment thought Easyjet is doing better.

The travel sector is doing well but there is no belief from investors in the sector currently.

I think that the truth is that, most people (especially Brits) would rather starve than miss out on a summer holiday. So to me the whole sector (including both Easyjet and Ryanair) looks cheap.

[sapphireblue1] 25/7/2024 13:07

Ryanair are not in a good place. Travel is booming and ryanair are struggling. Their summer pricing is soft on very tight margins.
They have one product and very few choices about how they act.
They are universally hated by many they are only going to be first choice when they are the only choice.
O'Leary is deluded about his influence on the industry.
Easyjet can match their profit with half the aircraft if 20% of those seats were with easyJet holidays.
It will become obvious over the next 12 months but these results support the word.

[essentialinvestor] 25/7/2024 12:46

Let's just take a reality check here - O'Leary has taken a loss making aircraft carrier with under 10 aircraft, to Europe's largest airline.
Ryan made over €2 bn on pre tax last year and on current consensus will make approx Euro 1.6 bn for this financial year.