Dart Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 26/4/2019 17:28

26 Apr '19 - 14:46 - 5729 of 5731
"Had you had 200k in Dart like i did at 16p and you find yourself up 200% at 48p what would you do? Of course that`s assuming you did not take a quick 25% and sell at 20p. Today that investment is worth 11 million pounds.That would of never been possible trading short term"

Tiger,

If that were the ONLY trade you ever did in your investing career and nothing else, then obviously it’s hard to disagree with your statement. Btw, well done on your DTG trade over the years - kudos where they are due and I mean it.

However, there is a major, major wrinkle with your more general argument when you make that bold statement of LT vs Trading.

Will keep it purely opinion-free and fact-based so that there is zero confusion.

Let’s be very, very generous and assume that you put 100% of your net worth (very unrealistic but let’s fantasise a bit) at 16p back in 2008. Let’s be equally generous and assume that you have done nothing in between and finally you sold out everything today at 900p. You would have made 5525% in 11 years. You have compounded your net worth at 44% per annum. WOW

Here’s what some of the lesser mortals (some call them the best ever) have put together in their long careers:

Buffett - 21% per annum (buy and hold like you:)
P Lynch - 23% per annum (also buy and hold like you:)
Soros - 30% per annum (short term trader)
J Simons - 70% per annum(one of the shortest term traders around trading THOUSANDS OF TIMES per year)

The above gentlemen’s track record includes ALL calls they have made in their careers (ie both your phenomenal DTG-types PLUS the less glamorous ones which provide that annoying gravitational pull).

Clearly, your 44% per annum would put all the above to shame (except Jim Simons the short term trader:) HAD you only traded DTG in your career BUT you haven’t.

So, the big wrinkle when you generalise what approach is best is what statisticians call drawing conclusions from a meaninglessly small sample size. That is, you have generalised on the basis of one single great call. Am sure you get the picture.

I have also once (only once it has happened though) 10 bagged in only 16 months but plenty of smaller stinking trades/investments have ruined the beauty of that 10 bagger and made overall returns a bit more modest.

Good weekend.

PS. Final thought re your long term VS trading on what's the best approach (to me this is strictly a personal choice with no clear answer but firmly depending on personal skillsets), see how Buffett/Lynch compares with Soros and especially Simons and there you have something to think about. Mind you, I would personally be v happy with Buffett type of returns in my trading career as I can only dream to match Jim Simon’s year in year out.

[snorkelparker] 26/4/2019 15:27

Trades made on the way down in November 900 and 910 just into the money.. Add the purchases in the upper 700's and happy days

[castleford tiger] 26/4/2019 14:46

You see we agree.

Had you had
200k in Dart like i did at 16p and you find yourself up 200% at 48p what would you do?

Of course that`s assuming you did not take a quick 25% and sell at 20p.


Today that investment is worth 11 million pounds.
That would of never been possible trading short term.

I study and buy into shares and company that i then watch develop.
Sometimes i come out and others i stay till they sell out.
Trafficmaster being one.
Its impossible to unload say my 120k shares in TND and then buy back. Instead i build or reduce depending on what i see and feel.

The TCG boys i really feel for but it could go to zero
Tiger

[sogoesit] 26/4/2019 10:27

Looks like the neck has been broken to the upside now (+ 3-1/2%) which should get us back on the long term trend at around 945 if momentum continues.
Here's to some good luck for that!

[castleford tiger] 26/4/2019 08:36

tongosti

You were very critical of DTG and posters who like me bought the dip to 750p.

I remember you having a good laugh about the "Smashing results" which lets be clear were SMASHING.
We having made almost 20% from those lows and not selling out as you suggested many times due to.............
Dart will get pulled down by the wider market comments.
Most here are not day traders and I don't think DTG is a trading stock as most moves up and down are around results and trading updates.
You said this is a cyclical industry which to some extent I agree however the bit you failed to grasp is that JET2 are taking market share from TUI and TCG ........and there is still plenty to go for.
You also failed to grasp just how good JET2 are.
Only European Airline in the top 10 is fantastic.

I have a good grip and some people that work there both Drivers and backroom I know very well.
There is just good news following good news.
TCG will be a different company in a year and there will be great growth potential for jet2

Remember you just have to be better than the rest ( and that's not always the cheapest).
I remain of the opinion the shares are worth 10.00 and my target of 20 by the time we see summer 21 results is very much on.
What happens day to day does not bother me.

best
Tiger

[tongosti] 26/4/2019 07:46

You are free to listen to whoever you want to pal so knock yourself out.

The key point which you fail to grasp in all this is that your "long term holders" sport bizarre beliefs that one does not have losing trading/investments in this game? Hence they conveniently pick on one losing trade to "make their point" when in fact they're simply parading their total ignorance of the game.

If Buffett would have ever come across these geniuses he would have never suffered a losing investment ever so no Tesco / IBM / Salomon Bros etc etc etc would he? Ah dear.

In other words, your highly esteemed chums have a belief (just when one thinks it has heard it all) in 100% win rate in this game. Who knows maybe you share the same belief so good luck.

The best ever in the business sport only about 50-60% win rates but this is an anonymous board so anything goes and I am very entertained and even amused to see such fools having their supportive audiences.

P.S. I rarely filter anyone as i believe in challenging and being challenged but when stupidity reigns supreme it is time to press the button on the wangers and wobbles of the world.

[snorkelparker] 26/4/2019 06:37

Tong I think we can assume that WL and W1 are long and long term holders.. Their posting and opinions are welcome. I think I speak for the majority on this board.. Maybe not those on tcg :)

[shaker44] 26/4/2019 04:30

Hahahaha.dont normally laugh at others mis fortunes but sometimes I have to make an exception .

[woozle1] 25/4/2019 21:47

Informative and comical post from WL on the TCG bb:

Just in case anyone might be fooled by his BS, beware: Tongo is a terrible investor who consistently loses money. Toxic mix of arrogance and ignorance. Best just to ignore him if you value your wealth.

Case study: Tongo blowing up in Velocys. [These are all real posts from the thread, look them up].

September 2014, Velocys share Price 236p (at all time high): TONGOSTI: "I reckon the sky is the limit for Velocys but patience is needed. I wouldn't be surprised to see Velocys do an ASOS in the next 10 years or so considering the size of the prize."

Share price 186p: October 2014: TONGOSTI: "Consider that current market cap is less than £300mln at the moment and the above back of the pack calculations go to show the gigantic business potential of VLS. Hold on to your underwear fellas!"

SP 150p December 2014: TONGOSTI: "nothing has changed. The company is getting ever stronger to the big prize. Sit tight and be patient fellas".

SP 90p July 2015: TONGOSTI: "my average is 140p and I am not happy at all but I was very well aware from the very off to risk my position here as there is never a guarantee with new tech companies. However, I hope VLS will somehow pull this off. That's why I will give the company another 12 months time. If things go belly up, ah well c'est la vie!!"

SP 70p August 2015: TONGOSTI: "Keep the faith fellas - the world has not come to an end. The technology is still promising".

SP 85p October 2015: TONGOSTI: "Volumes tell you a lot about the demand for shares. Nothing to note at the moment. Consequently, I wouldn't read too much into current price advances (may I add that this is coming from someone who is long VLS)"

SP 47p November 2015: TONGOSTI: "First thing this morning I bailed out completely. Ah dear, what a disaster VLS has been!"

[tongosti] 25/4/2019 21:10

The fella who can never prove whether he buys or sells anything (he may well be a student for all one knows) is at it again. Whoever can't prove (like you or the other muppet wanger) when they enter / exit their positions are simply a waste of space and board entertainers. Go get your shinebox sport! Prove your trading acumen of STFU.

[woozle1] 25/4/2019 18:07

Tongo in overdrive(l)
w1

[wagnerlove] 24/4/2019 09:30

Under current European rules passengers can be compensated multiples of what their original ticket cost for a delay, so I think he is right to fight his corner.

[tongosti] 24/4/2019 08:42

Only thing you'd care is what the market thinks not what some journalist does. Market seems fine so...

[snorkelparker] 24/4/2019 07:41

Just hope he doesn't end up being demonised for his stance..

[castleford tiger] 24/4/2019 06:52

No shaker not at the moment. Will try to find the share price

I do think PM has had a hand in change of CEO at LBA.

Read the 2009 !!! report last night.( yes i have them all in hard copy)

We took 35,000 on holiday.( it was the first full year ) we should do 3.3 Million this year.
We had cut summer capacity by 20 odd % and winter by 49%
Our planes were 70 odd % load.

Our t/o was 400 million and we had 22 planes.

Wow how we have grown.

Tiger

[snorkelparker] 24/4/2019 06:06

Quite a personal article, not very flattering to PH.. But you don't get to be where he is by being soft.. Not sure history of his divorces are relavent.. The guy carries massive respect in the industry, and does not tolarate fools.. If Jet2 had a track record of delays and poor customer service, could be more critical.. But they do have one of the best reputations for being on time.. I can imagine his approach if the body handling claims was incompetent and inconsistent.. Why sign up for that..

[shaker44] 24/4/2019 01:10

As a consumer, it's my perception that all airlines resist compensation claims,and for obvious reasons, so I don't think there is much risk to jet2 reputation from this action. But I am surprised Meeson is bothering with it. I guess there is more to a win than the Mail article indicates.
Maybe @realCT has an inside track on this?

[castleford tiger] 23/4/2019 08:25

You have to love that article.
Summer bookings were down BECAUSE of the heatwave.
In November TCG said WINTER bookings were also down !!

Is nobody bright enough to think it could just be they are loosing market share?

Anyway no news from TCG board. If in talks they have to say?
Tiger

[fokker45] 22/4/2019 21:58

Based on past Chinese investments in European Airlines, I think this would be beneficial to DTG: