Dart Share Discussion Threads

[woozle1] 17/4/2019 12:12

Time to get out TCG. They cannot withstand a price war. Happy to sit here, as I have done since 2008. The share price will wing around but the business momentum is upward and the price is cheap and I 'm pretty sure that in the next 5 years we'll get £20. That's an IRR of 20%+ and fine by me. The rest is just noise.
w1

[castleford tiger] 17/4/2019 11:00

bootycall

We agree on first point.
The new aircraft replaced older 737/300( that were retired) so little capacity growth there.( exception being they carry 35 pass)
Competitors slashing prices..........who will that be?
Only TUI has the power as TCG are on the brink.

dart has to bring in under dry and wet lease extra capacity to add to its own fleet.
Overall i think capacity is up about 15/20% this year. Probably the lower end of those figures.
Holidays as you know are over 50% of total seat sales.
looking at prices they are not giving seats away like the others.

I think tcg will fail this year as it will be weaker than last ( look at DTG forecasts).

I think this is a good entry point as dart will certainly do better as the year moves on.
Tiger

[tongosti] 17/4/2019 09:46

Seems like the market anticipated correctly this update so it's safe to say the market is more sympathetic to the bull case.

[11023154] 17/4/2019 09:06

Given the exceptional circumstances we find ourselves in, and the hammering the £ has had over the last few years it’s another very positive outlook from the business. Proof to me the underlying business model is exceptional.

[bootycall] 17/4/2019 08:27

Dart Group has a great brand and very astute management. They have expanded capacity with additional plane deliveries just as there is too much unsold inventory on the market . Past experience dictates that margins will be cut to move product. I cannot see Dart not reacting to competitors slashing prices as we get closer to the holiday season. Long term this is a buy ... short term it is looking vulnerable. Forget , Brexit for a moment. Passenger yields will heavily reliant on linking seat sales to paying holidaymakers and not sold as flight only. Best to avoid for a month or two.

[sogoesit] 17/4/2019 08:22

As said, I think it leaked Monday so now priced in.
Consensus forecast EPS is 96p (FY19).
“Slightly ahead” lets say 100p forecast.
Multiple? 9x, 10x ?

[snorkelparker] 17/4/2019 08:13

I think will continue to move up based on this announcement.. If only for being in a good position to grow market share while still making a profit..

[snorkelparker] 17/4/2019 08:09

Didn't see it as very very cautious.. Just as we kinda expected.. Like CT comments competitive pricing could be big trouble to others out there

[castleford tiger] 17/4/2019 07:45

i think its fair and reflects what the market suggests.
Prices are under some pressure ( but they were in the winter ) and its far too early to say how current year will pan out.
I expect upgrades from company as it becomes clearer.

Its very bad news for TCG who cannot afford a price war and who keep loosing market share,

How will the market react?

My guess is pretty flat but what do i know?
Tiger

[tongosti] 17/4/2019 07:41

Very, very cautious trading update. Let's see what Mr Market makes of it. Could be a big one.

[hatfullofsky] 17/4/2019 07:41

Yet another ultra conservative update. Great news on FY19 which dispels the previous conservative guidance. We're only a couple of weeks into FY20.

[tongosti] 17/4/2019 07:39

Get a life slick and keep posting under your W alias

[tongostl] 17/4/2019 07:32

Jet2 still growing! I love this company.

[tongosti] 15/4/2019 21:20

We're on the same page on this one. Also agree with SG's latest post that whoever says price is everything hasn't really thought about it carefully. Price does not exist in isolation but rather is a byproduct of volume (fluid and ever changing demand-supply equilibriums) over time. Price is derived from volumes and does not exist in a vacuum. And yes - a wide range of factors (OTC venues/dark pools/no centralised exchanges for various assets/proliferation of exotic deriv products) have made it more difficult to put volume in context these days but when it comes to AIM stocks such issues are very largely a luxury and one can be safely confident the vols we see printed are the ones that really count.

[hatfullofsky] 15/4/2019 21:08

Agree with both posts. With volume and price we should always consider trend

[sogoesit] 15/4/2019 21:03

There are those who say "price is everything" and volume is not relevant.
I am undecided on the merits of the former as I, personally, like to see support on the traded volume side.
At 258k volume today is not high, but not particularly low. A "normal" volume day. High reported volumes in this stock tend to be in the range 450k to 500k and low volumes in the 150k to 175k range.

Note that volume is not always easy, or possible, to track given that there will be off-market (direct) trading, other exchanges like Chi-X etc. etc.
In summary, there has been a break out of the recent trend. This, certainly, needs confirmation.

[tongosti] 15/4/2019 20:13

And as a matter of fact, if someone wants to speculate (talking trading not investing here for the avoidance of doubt) from the long side, the existing price level provides a good risk reward profile. I would certainly get in a long trade if I see, say tomorrow, an uptick on significant volumes (and with or without an update)

[tongosti] 15/4/2019 20:08

I broadly agree - especially the first week of April saw the biggest buy volume of 2019 and that coincided with the year's low. No such thing as outstanding volume but ok-ish nevertheless. In the context of the larger price range DTG finds itself in, that's a mild thumb up from Mr Market (and that's precisely the reason why I argued against someone on this board making the short case a couple of weeks back or so).

[hatfullofsky] 15/4/2019 19:58

Understood. You can never take one day in isolation, the move up has been over the last 3 weeks and volume has supported that.

[tongosti] 15/4/2019 19:52

If you read carefully what SG wrote, he made the case that recent action may be due to (his not my word) the "leaky" next update. I was specifically talking about such relationship (and def was not commenting about price action in isolation). All I said was that whenever smth big is coming up, usually that's preceded by price movements caused by meaningful volume (aka odds favour underlying action to continue). Helpful?

[wagnerlove] 15/4/2019 17:28

As ever, Tongo chimes in with his combo of wild overconfidence, negligible understanding, and useless insights. Everything is up. Even Thomas Cook. Tui up more than 10% since last Weds. All sentiment. Meaningless till we see some numbers.

[hatfullofsky] 15/4/2019 17:18

What balance of probability? DTG has been in strength for the last month

[tongosti] 15/4/2019 16:55

Unlikely, on the balance of probabilities. Reason is price moving on no volumes.

[11023154] 15/4/2019 14:32

5 month breakout