Dart Share Discussion Threads

[shaker44] 15/7/2019 09:43

In the days before internet and self help, Thomas Cook was a respected premium brand. I suspect its brand values mean nothing now, to under age 40 bookers.
Maybe like the old Hifi stores,some people go in to get advice and browse, then go home to buy cheaper on the web.
A tired weak brand It seems to me.

[tongosti] 15/7/2019 09:37

Not a great start of the week. I know, I know it's v early doors and volumes are not there yet for the day. Anyways, this close to results having been announced, I was (and am still) expecting v strong market action. However, if the market completely ignores latest results and acts counter to them, that would speak volumes I would think. If so, I would be happy to reverse my existing expectations and prepare to go short rather than long.

[sogoesit] 15/7/2019 09:09

Woozle1:
"Moreover, recapitalisation does not address the cost base in the UK."

Nor does it address a failed strategy imv.

[castleford tiger] 15/7/2019 08:49

woozle

agree 100%.

They need it to go via pre pack to get rid of the shops etc.

Tiger

[castleford tiger] 15/7/2019 08:42

Thank you for your email. I am currently out of the office until 24 July.

For the companies team please contact Mark Robinson at [e-mail].



--
*Julia Faurschou*
Specialist writer
Investors Chronicle

[phone]
Financial Times Ltd, Bracken House 1 Friday Street London EC4M 9BT

Twitter: @juliafaurschou


On her holidays I have sent an e mail

[woozle1] 15/7/2019 08:21

IC and the wider market have never understood DTG. I've read so many broker report over the years and there is hardly any reference to Jet2, which is crazy given that they are the reason that TCG has struggled and are bankrupt again.

I'm not convinced that the TCG restructuring story is anywhere near over. I'm fairly sure that the bond holders and the banks will want alot more than 25% of the company, in return for writing off £1.5bn of debt. This has someway to run.

Moreover, recapitalisation does not address the cost base in the UK.

[shaker44] 15/7/2019 08:05

A very good question Tiger. Brings to mind Nigel Lawsons comment years ago, about teenage scribbles.
Like TCG, IC is fast diluting its brand.

[castleford tiger] 15/7/2019 08:01

She actually said

The shares are more expensive the TCG shares.

How does she keep the job>

[castleford tiger] 15/7/2019 08:00

MY E MAIL TO HER 29.12.19

Good morning and a happy new year.

Julia

You say in your comment “the shares are more expensive than Thomas Cook”

I have to disagree as TCG lost money last year so in effect it lost money per share. Therefore it’s a unfair comparison.

If you are looking at forecast earnings you and the market are suggesting TCG will make more than 3p per share.
That is very unlikely in my opinion.

In the general article you once again talk about a turbulent year for travel stock, and the infamous heatwave touches the headline again.

The fastest growing holiday company, and No2 in the market fails to get a mention once again. There was no slow down at DART group.

My reading is that DART is slipping under the radar of most analysts. Its regularly beats forecasts, and is growing in excess of 20% pa.
Holidays were up from 1.87m to 2.5m in the summer you mention.
The business model is not understood by the city and the shares trade in the current year ending March at between 8 and 9.
Unlike TCG it has NET cash and a fleet it owns that has just past 100 aircraft.
TCG is dipping into its pre payments to get to net debt figure. That’s naughty.

Excuses given by TCG don’t wash with me as the fact is that DART are taking their market in Europe with a cheaper and better offering.

I have no position in TUI or TCG long or short.

All the best
Andrew

[sogoesit] 15/7/2019 07:56

Yes, I use them, IC, on a contrarian basis.
They have favoured BP against Shell for a long time so I bought, and buy, Shell.
Similarly RB versus Unilever.

[castleford tiger] 15/7/2019 07:56

I will write to her again to point out the errors.
She does not understand Dart and has always been negative.

How about.......... a 25% increase in holidays even when TUI and TCG were blaming hot weather for a decline in bookings.

How about we are grabbing their lost customers.

THEN THE IC VIEW

Dart appears to have some financial headroom to withstand a period of customer caution, but net cash declined from £460m at the half-year stage due to increased operational spending on. We’re also sceptical of Dart’s capacity expansion plans in the past, given the competitive environment. Sell

Net cash declined at the half year stage ?????? These were final results and cash was up.
How about looking at cash spent acquiring assets?

then........
We’re also sceptical of Dart’s capacity expansion plans in the past, given the competitive environment

NO Mention of the massive jump in profits and EPS and current low rating/

THAT JUST DOES NOT MAKE SENSE!

Think I better cancel my subscription.

It just goes to show just how bad these articles are.

Tiger

[shaker44] 15/7/2019 07:48

IC have always had a downer on DTG for some reason. Over time, I have noticed ST at IC frequently ramps high risk,low cap stocks, usually followed by a small share price rise, before their downtrend. Not that reliable anymore, so take their DTG 'anlysis' with a huge pinch of salt.(They also push subscribers towards their higher cost Alpha version in a rather amateurish way, which will lose them subscribers-including me)

[sogoesit] 15/7/2019 07:30

Strange (illogical?) conclusion from chronic investor’s Julia Faurschou on 12 July comment:

“DART GROUP MANAGES CAPACITY EXPANSION
Capacity can be a sensitive subject in the European travel sector, but so far Dart (DTG) appears to have managed this market-wide challenge. Revenue from the leisure travel business increased by a third to £2.96bn over the year to March, with operating profit up 63 per cent in the division to £199m giving a profit margin 1.2 percentage points higher at 6.7 per cent. This was achieved despite a £147m operating loss in the second half as Dart spent on new aircraft orders.

DTG:LSE
Dart Group PLC

1mth
Today change
-2.22% Price (GBP)
860.50
Over the financial year, Dart increased its capacity by almost a quarter to 13.8m seats available, yet still managed to increase the percentage of seats filled slightly to 92.8 per cent. Both packaged holidays and flight-only prices improved over the period, with the average package holiday price increasing by 6 per cent to £669 and flight-only ticket yield per passenger 12 per cent higher at £81.79.

Despite these positive developments, management appear cautious around the current financial year. “Less confident consumers” are putting off booking a holiday until later in the year, meaning that pricing for its leisure products must remain competitive. So far advance sales made as of the end of March increased by 17 per cent compared to this time last year, at £1.73bn spent. Increasing fuel costs are also a concern for all airline operators. For Dart, the average hedged price of fuel was 17 per cent higher at $604 (£474) per tonne, with 90 per cent of fuel requirements hedged over the next 12 months.

Fowler Welch, Dart’s distribution and logistics business, saw revenue increase by 6 per cent to £179m after two significant contracts began operations mid-way through the financial year. But higher operating costs resulted in a decline of 2 per cent in operating profit to £4.3m, and the profit margin that was marginally lower at 2.4 per cent.

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity expect adjusted pre-tax profits of £155m during the year to March 2020 giving EPS of 85.5p, increasing slightly to £156m and 85.7p in FY2021.


IC View
Dart appears to have some financial headroom to withstand a period of customer caution, but net cash declined from £460m at the half-year stage due to increased operational spending on. We’re also sceptical of Dart’s capacity expansion plans in the past, given the competitive environment. Sell.
Last IC view: Sell, 812p, 16 Nov 2018”

Anyway, wrong so far.

[fokker45] 15/7/2019 07:22

Radio 2 had Curling as worst punctuality in UK, TCG as second worst.

[castleford tiger] 15/7/2019 05:34

This has to get a kick on from the woes at TCG.

Tiger

[tongosti] 14/7/2019 13:30

Melody - it's perfectly fine to question anything. This shouldn't be a fan club but a platform where rational people debate and challenge one another's views.

[melody9999] 14/7/2019 10:59

Thanks all - I was not questioning the sale - perfectly reasonable - but more the timing. Fokker - yr comment makes a lot of sense.

[hatfullofsky] 13/7/2019 18:49

I don't agree Buffett has 95% of his wealth in Berkshire shares.

[shaker44] 13/7/2019 14:30

I have no idea of his family situation, and although it's a nice problem to have, having the fat side of 500m tied up is a problem.
At his age maybe he will get tempted by a private equity take out, but the price for that would surely be higher than it is now.
But if he gets his buzz from working rather than resetting in Monaco for example, that could still be a long way off

[fokker45] 13/7/2019 14:08

I suspect his accountant/tax adviser have told PM he should take some money out. Selling the day after results suits me as we just had the company update. If he had sold three months without any news/trading updateas, I may have been slightly concerned. Still, selling £6m worth of shares is chicken feed for PM.

Also, there are rumours that the zero rate IHT for AIM shares may be abolished. If something does change, or looks like will change, then PM may re-evaluate his holding to get rid of his holding in the most tax efficient manner.

[castleford tiger] 13/7/2019 12:35

melody

As snorkel says its 5m out of 500m plus

This is his second such sale following one last year.

Some may argue his stake is still too high at the high 30 odd %

There is £20.00 my target by 2021 to aim for and that's based on us making 350m a year and t/o close to 5b by then

tiger

[snorkelparker] 13/7/2019 10:15

Melody it his perogative at 70 plus you wanna spend a bit of the value you have built.. PM does not care for the share price, just look after the company and value follows.. Put yourself in his shoes your worth over half a billion would you worry about leaving some cash on the table when selling a few shares.. I guess this is his selling done for a while

[melody9999] 12/7/2019 23:02

Tiger 5956 - pls explain. Are you suggesting that PM is right to sell now rather than in the future when the DTG share price will be higher? If so, why?

[tongosti] 12/7/2019 21:24

Not if he has sold about 1.5% of his shares. I wouldn't read too much into it. However, if we see over the next few days and weeks that he will continue his sales, than that would be an entirely different issue.

[hatfullofsky] 12/7/2019 19:12

But a director sale on such good results will always draw attention