Dart Share Discussion Threads

[woozle1] 11/6/2019 14:05

I'm hearing that businesses are fed with the Brexit fiasco and just getting with their lives. I suspect the general public are same and just getting with booking their hols.

Unless Fosun are deranged, they will be more interested in bidding for parts. Why would they want to assume all that debt and a structurally challenged UK biz

Also even if the bonds are up, they are still below 50!

w1

[tongostl] 11/6/2019 12:55

Well said CT. Wonder if the surge in bookings is a consequence of TCGs recent negative PR

[snorkelparker] 11/6/2019 12:50

CF you mean bookings up 250 % just for the last weekend YoY?

[snorkelparker] 11/6/2019 12:47

Both valid comments ..a reality check, it was just a punt with a buy in at 40. Unlikely to get fill ..certainly not going to chase.. very good summary of the dynamic of the out sources airline would take some serious management and they dont have a good track record of that..your spot on ..imagine being the guy in TC managing that relationship ..

[woozle1] 11/6/2019 12:34

You'll have to take a view on the value of the airline and the Scandi business .. not sure that the UK business is worth much with all the stores attached .. and you'll need to check whether or not the bonds are structurally subordinated or whether they have been issued out of the opco .. hope to you enjoy reading a bond prospectus! w1

[castleford tiger] 11/6/2019 12:32

Careful i cannot see FOSUM bidding.

Why did they not buy more on the market before showing their hand and thus lowering their average price paid ( is it 3/6 months ? )

Buying a travel company with a shed load of debt,600 shops that they don`t want, a business that makes an underlying loss.
No airline to fly your customers there..........explain how that works ?
The airline has been making 100m a year ( or so they say) so add that to TCG and the loss just got even bigger.

You sell a holiday quoted at 699 in the book........... but the NEW TCG HAS TO THEN FIND SEATS on a plane from 1 of several airports and it has no idea what it will pay for the seats............they go up normally not down.
They have no idea who may own the planes yet never mind what deals can be done.

Its just a disaster waiting to happen as you have no controls.

Just let it all go and cherry pick from the Liquidator.

So be careful

Tiger

ps hearing a late surge of bookings for the summer sales up 250% at the weekend YOY.

[snorkelparker] 11/6/2019 12:11

100k at face value not investment value

[snorkelparker] 11/6/2019 11:57

Might stick a bid in for 100k and see from there...fortunately cgt is not a worry as not a UK resident..just have a feeling the bonds could do well..

[woozle1] 11/6/2019 11:52

sp ..the bonds have started moving up .. if you get bonds/pibs right and these go back to par, there is no cgt .. w1

[snorkelparker] 11/6/2019 10:45

Dtg moving up ..slowly but good volume in last few hours..TCG is better the way it is..driving business away because of uncertainty..rather than restructured and better run ..public will forget all this once the companys finances are perceived to be in better shape.. its a proper mess needs a few billion to sure it up in my opinion..however, I thinking they may be value in the bonds ..6.25 % at 40 worth a punt

[snorkelparker] 04/6/2019 17:37

Regarding TUI...Does anyone have any idea what makes up the 6.6 bill of Contingent Liabilities in the TUI Annual Report, it states that it's in connection with granting of guarantees for the benefit of hotel activities. Very Opaque and the report does not expand on this number well not anywhere that i can find in the AR.
Now that's a big off B/S liability

[wilddcw] 03/6/2019 12:17

Other option would be 1 flight a day instead of 2 757s (215 seats vs 400) it would have to be an increase in capacity in Winter and not sure how many airports can handle the 330s with container loading etc.

[tongosti] 03/6/2019 11:04

Ah ok - agreed that's probably the only logical move if DTG decides to go that way.

[snorkelparker] 03/6/2019 10:31

I meant in the package tour space not the airline space. For sure if flight only

[tongosti] 03/6/2019 09:42

That would be pie in the sky - not a chance competing with the big boys in the long haul space. That would be a very, very costly mistake to make

[snorkelparker] 03/6/2019 05:44

Me thinks that they are going to start some longer trips ..US ?
They have the license to fly and keep it current with the US shopping trips.. seems the sensible thing to do apply the same formula that took market share in the shorter haul space.

[wilddcw] 02/6/2019 12:32

hxxps://www.jethros.org.uk/fleets/fleet_listings/jet2.htm

Interestingly shows 2 Airbus 330s leased until end of season 2022 and 2025 with approx. 400 seats each and not unexpectedly 3 of the older 757s being disposed of at the end of this season.

What are 330s going to do over Winter? Long haul?

[wagnerlove] 24/5/2019 07:33

@CB7, go to CAA website and it is all there.

[tongosti] 23/5/2019 21:13

Have a guess.

[cb7] 23/5/2019 17:12

wagner - its just a consensus forecast, doesnt specify which broker and is usually accurate, but clearly not on this occasion! So enlighten me where you find the load factors for each airline....

[wagnerlove] 23/5/2019 12:41

@CB7 - all UK airlines release their monthly pax and load factors, you just need to know where to look ;)

Who is the broker you refer to that cut EPS from 100 to 95p? There are only two brokers and I have not seen either with those forecasts. Forecast for this current year are shade above 80p EPS.

Fall in the £ against $ and € is not good news for cost base, but there is a lot of flexibility in this business that can react to changes in the market quickly.

Thomas Cook problems are very good news for Jet2. That is 2m holidays that could leave the UK market and a lot of customers that can be soaked up by Jet2...

[wagnerlove] 23/5/2019 12:31

Checking on Jet2 website holiday prices for 6 nights to Spain from Manchester, Birmingham and Stanstead. Most holidays in July seem above £600 and in August a fair bit more expensive. That is with discounts applied. Average holiday price for Jet2 in 2018 was £633, according to that year's annual report. So doesn't seem to me that holiday prices are collapsing, maybe down 5/10%. Please let me know if I am missing something here...