Dart Share Discussion Threads

[fokker45] 27/6/2018 16:37

Just done some seasonality analysis on the H1 results, and will pleased with FY revenue of 2369M and PBT of 130M. This is very close to Mornington Star figures of Revenue 2399M and PBT of 128M.

If the Mornington Star figures come in that will mean a record revenue growth of 38.7%, and PBT growing 42.1%, so margins improving despite record revenue growth.

[snorkelparker] 27/6/2018 16:31

Got the fill at 7.80 another 20k shares in the bin..

[fokker45] 27/6/2018 15:10

Sorry, meant to say my last 4 sales were, and after the gradual fall bought back at 799p:

27/6 BUY 799p
31/5 SELL 823p
05/4 SELL 850p
20/2 SELL 760p
19/2 SELL 751p

Mornington Star used to list which analysts were following and show their predictions, no longer though. Acording to DTG IR site only Arden and Canaccord cover.

[castleford tiger] 27/6/2018 13:18

Will be above that?
Tiger

[meijiman] 27/6/2018 11:53

Don't follow your post..your 'last four transactions have been sell' and yet you say that I have just bought back in at 799p.
One issue with Dart is the difficulty in doing forecasts ---clearly you can model projections based on the number of planes/ticket prices/load factor and all that but important factors such as economic conditions/propensity to book hols/fuel prices/fuel hedges are tough to get right.
Think the company steers the broker to go lower on following year forecasts with a good chance to beat the numbers.
Morningstar probably as good as you can get at this stage.
I'm sure CT has his own view though..........

[fokker45] 27/6/2018 11:37

My last four transactions have been sell at:

849p 822p 766p 751p

Main reason is the share price does often for no good reason drift down due to lack of news, and also to make use of my 2018-2019 tax allowance early in the tax year. Nothing to do with quality of the company, I still have holdings and are my second biggest share holding, first bought at 137p and 142p.

I have just bought back in at 799p (inc charges), and will buy again at 770p 715p 700p.

Final results are due out on Thursday 12 July, which may of course change my strategy.

Mornington star has forecasts for FY to 31.03.2018 as follows:

Rev 2399M
PBT 128M
EPS 62.63p
DPS 5.9p

and FY to 31.03.2019:

Rev 2855M
PBT 110M
EPS 60.99p
DPS 6.6p

Be interested to hear which analysts are coming up with these figures, note the forecast profit margin fall from 5.3% to 3.9%.

Of course, be interested to hear what others think 2018 figures will come in at.

[snorkelparker] 27/6/2018 10:32

Picked up a other 10k shares as it went through 8 quid.. Next purchase at 7.80

[castleford tiger] 27/6/2018 08:55

Not worried but rather see it as a chance to buy more.

The sector has looked weak for 2 months.

I am not selling till we hit at least 15.00 so its just a matter of time.

Tiger

[shaker44] 27/6/2018 08:44

be careful what you wish for Tiger!!

[bulltradept] 27/6/2018 08:23

Under £8.00 ...

[woozle1] 25/6/2018 20:21

Anyone know why the travel sector took such a shallakcing today? Excuse ignorance in advance.
w1

[hatfullofsky] 25/6/2018 19:34

DTG held up well today, carnage in the travel sector.

[castleford tiger] 21/6/2018 16:19

I KNOW I did say it might get there
tiger

[hatfullofsky] 21/6/2018 14:13

Tiger - It's hanging on to 8 ...... for now !

[castleford tiger] 01/6/2018 22:12

Wishful thinking!

[hatfullofsky] 01/6/2018 22:00

Tiger, 7? really!? This has just had its dip to 810ish. Now a steady rise back to 880 and then a push on from the results early July. Totally undervalued.

[castleford tiger] 31/5/2018 18:01

market suggests 112 m and 62p eps
I think 125m and 70p eps.( BUT POSSIBLY MORE RE MONARCH EFFECT)

Market forecasts going forward are meaningless.

I think 150m in current year on our way to 200m by 2020.

Love to buy at any number starting with a 7 before July
Tiger

[tresham] 31/5/2018 11:29

I think marketing and winter losses were planned to increase over winter. So I would say winter losses of –50p, last year was –40p.

Since Monarch went bust 10% increase in air flight prices should equate to +13p . (1/3 of turnover in second half with 1/3 of turnover flights because a large element is holidays. Gives 1/3*1/3*£1800m /150shares).

First half profits were 117p. So I get 117-50+13=80p. Currency adjustment may give +10p.

80p

[eoghanocb] 31/5/2018 10:48

Dart really only moves twice a year (three this year because of management update).
Bounces around now and again, but next time this will move materially is most likely the annual results which are usually released in July.
Any estimates of that earnings are going to look like in £m?

[castleford tiger] 21/5/2018 22:24

I bought at 16p and wish I held them all now. I think we may dip below 800p which will be a further chance to top up.
Results are still some way off and news flow limited. Of greater concern is the oil price which may damper earnings in 2 years unless they can hike prices.
Still my 10 pounds looks very light by 2020 and 20.00 is very possible not far out from that.
I expect a great year in the bag and current year has continued the trend will flights over 90% full before we hit peak season.
Tiger
Ps LBA is just a hop away from me.

[woozle1] 21/5/2018 16:50

the former.
w1

[11023154] 21/5/2018 16:14

v interesting. Their HQ is five min drive from my house bizarre. I shall look into them although my view on HMRC is one of concern as they tend to act irrationally from my limited experience and always surprise me how much power they have although I'm not well experienced. I assume this is the primary reason for the low sp?

Guess you are full-time investing? Do you hold in a dealing account or SIPP/ISA or spread out of interest?

Ben

[woozle1] 21/5/2018 13:21

If you are interested in cheap, bummed out stocks, I've recently loaded up with Augean.P/e of 5, v little debt (that is falling) but is in dispute with HMRC about landfill tax treatment. Management and majority shareholder have been loading up with shares. They have a North Sea decontamination business that is set to grow as the North Sea oil platforms are decommissioned.

As ever, this may take time but I think the potential upside and the odds of making decent money are good.

As ever, DYOR and GLA

w1

[woozle1] 21/5/2018 12:54

I started buying at 80p in 2007 and bought all the way down to 16p and have been a regular buyer on big dips.
w1