Dart Share Discussion Threads

[woozle1] 05/3/2018 17:22

If the list price of the new Boeing 737-800NG is $96m and the company claim to have negotiated a substantial discount, anyone any ideas what DTG are paying per plane?

[castleford tiger] 05/3/2018 16:02

Cheers Tiger,
I was just surprised that Tui and TCG were even selling a competitor's products but when you have fixed costs of £147k per week, needs must.


Those costs are per shop per year. Including other bits it will be at least 4-6 k a week per store.
Taking a 800.00 holiday with 10% margin.........which is above what they get they need to sell 60/100 a week to cover shop costs.

Think you will find EZY do lose money in half the year

Headline loss before tax of GBP212 million includes the estimated impact of the move of Easter into the second half of the year (circa GBP45 million) and a negative net currency impact of GBP82 million. Excluding these two items the headline loss before tax would have been circa GBP85 million. Total loss before tax after non-headline items was GBP236 million

We are a totally different model to either with Holidays filling the planes and spare seats sold off

Tiger

[woozle1] 05/3/2018 15:29

Cheers Tiger,
I was just surprised that Tui and TCG were even selling a competitor's products but when you have fixed costs of £147k per week, needs must.

I was looking EZJ and RYA's seasonality versus DTG and the former do not dip into loss. I'm thinking that operating out of Stanstead should really help margins. RYA's Op Margin is at 23% and if we can get to double digits due to reduced winter losses then we really are off to the races.
w1

[castleford tiger] 05/3/2018 13:00

Woozle

That's quite an old article and a few things have changed.

Jet 2 is NO 2 not 3
hxxp://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/289439/jet2holidays-now-second-biggest-uk-operator-ahead-of-thomas-cook
Looking at sales last year the withdrawal clearly did not have to big an effect!"

Jet 2 do not have the costs with running a store
25k rent
100k wages
12k rates
147k each before you turn a light on!

That's why we can make a profit and other bloated companies cannot.
Think On line v High street.

Now independent agents still sell Jet 2 holidays and they tell me they out sell the others.
I see a good few million more holidays moving from TUI and TC to jet 2 before we need to change plan.

I would also investigate the DART website as they are good at updating things.

Good luck and remember I think 2.3 to 2.5 m sold during the current year ending March 18.
Tiger

[woozle1] 04/3/2018 07:45

Interesting that TCG and Tui were even selling Jet2 Holidays via their network and allowing them into the market at all. But it probably does tell you that the shops are either uneconomic or not very profitable. Interesting also that TCG only has 5 shops within the M25 where many holidays are sold online and plays well into Jet2's position.

Jet2 has a call centre and no shops, Tui and TCG have 650 and 600 respectively and have call centres.

w1

[r ball] 04/3/2018 06:38

Contact Chris at Arden Partners or Gert at Canaccord. Thanks

[woozle1] 03/3/2018 20:22

CT,
I'm currently writing an investment report on DTG and looking at Jet2 Holidays. With the below in mind, do you have any idea what proportion of Jet2 Holidays's business came through the Tui or TCG network. Both have been selling Jet2 Holidays since 2010 and stopped last year.

Tui have 650 shops and TCG 600 shops.

This from 10th February 2017

"Thomas Cook has this week confirmed that it has announced it is to cease selling Jet2holidays in it’s shops, which means that Co-Operative Travel at Clifton Moor will also be unable to sell Jet2Holidays. The decision to stop selling Jet2Holidays by Thomas Cook and Co-op Travel comes soon after TUI (Thomson) announced they would no longer sell Jet2holidays in their shops. This means that Thomson and Thomas Cook’s Monks Cross shops and Co-operative Travel at Clifton Moor are no longer able to sell Jet2Holidays, leaving Conexo Travel in Haxby as the only high street travel agency in the area selling Jet2Holidays.

"Thomas Cook have claimed the move was about increasing its focus on its own holiday offering, which is a similar message given by Thomson. In reality, Jet2Holidays have grown massively over the last few years and after Thomson and Thomas Cook they are the third largest package holiday company in the UK. When you consider that they have only just recently begun to sell their holidays in the South of England this is a fantastic achievement – no wonder Thomson and Thomas Cook are looking over their shoulders with concern that their market share is being picked off by Jet2Holidays." (source: Conexo Travel)

[castleford tiger] 02/3/2018 08:54

Well lets see you might be right but I fancy Bristol /Bournemouth first./

Been a costly 2 days with almost all Leeds and Scotland flights cancelled.

Tiger

[woozle1] 28/2/2018 08:06

CT,
Yes at Gatwick because that is Tui and Thomas Cook's largest bases and it would complete the London footprint. At the moment Jet2 spending lots on outdoor advertising on buses etc here in London and that's for just one airport. It could spend the same and get two airports and a bigger addressable market. So, there are serious scale benefits and the opportunity to continue hurting Tui and TCG.

I don't think that Jet2 will have to overpay at Gatwick because the slots are only profitable to companies with lower cost advantage.

Post Monarch Jet2 (+650,000)have added more ATOL protected seats than Tui (+250,000) and TCG (+230,000) combined. Tui have a good presence at Luton and have let many of the Monarch slots go to Whizz. I think that tells us that Tui are stepping away and TCG have such a bloated cost base that they need higher margin business to be profitable.

And here's a quote from the TCG Q1 trading update on 8th Feb 2018:

“We continue to see significant margin pressure in holidays to Spain, our largest destination, due to higher hotel cost inflation and increased flight capacity.”

Jet2 are becoming the price setter in Spain and TCG and Tui can't live with it.

w1

[snorkelparker] 28/2/2018 07:39

Fair comment, my core holding is staying put, I only adopted cfd's as didn't have the cash to buy the stock, was close to a mil gbp on margin so it was a trading position, one that had carry charges and wanted to lock in the profits and sleep a bit better.

Things can go wrong that we cant see or factor in so have to say i'm currently happy with taking some downside risk of the table, In from early 2008 and yep your correct about timing, but happy to have another punt with cfd's if offered the entry point.

Lets see what the next 4 months brings if it marches up without a pull back to 10/12 quid i wont be crying in my beer ..still well vested.

Cheers

[castleford tiger] 28/2/2018 07:26

Grow at new bases in Gatwick and Bristol

Woozle ??????

What do you know?

Bristol I fancy and the south coast possibly even Stobarts airfield but don't fancy Gatwick as slots are expensive

Tiger

[woozle1] 28/2/2018 07:13

SP,
You are in danger of adopting the Great Thongo trading approach, except you are trading the long side. Who knows what the share price will do between now and July. To quote a politician, you don't know what you don't know.

I've been long since 2006/7 and bought on dips.

There's so much earnings upside in this stock but timing it is a fool's errand. Just ask the Great Thongo.

Continue taking market share from Tui and TCG
Growth in Jet2.com and Jet2 Holidays at Stanstead
Improved margins as the scale and speed of expansion slows
Reduced seasonality with exposure to SE market
Grow at new bases in Gatwick and Bristol
Northern Europe has similar holiday tastes to the Brits
Aging population to winter sun opportunities
Scale efficiencies, in marketing and negotiating with hotels and suppliers
New, more efficient planes will reduce maintenance costs

Tuck your shares away and forget about them.

w1

[snorkelparker] 28/2/2018 02:49

Unloaded all my leveraged cfd's at an average out of 7.9, so now back to my core stock holding and hoping for that 750 pull back if it happens then try the short/medium term trade from 7.5 up. was just way over my comfort levels with 120k shares in cfd's but banked a nice profit on the way from 5 to 8. Will DTG drift downwards again once news becomes quiet and wonder when the next update will be ? Guess it will be when the numbers for the year are released in July.

Treshams comparisons makes TC look a bit of a dog with all that debt on the B/S and only goodwill making the bottom line of the B/S respectable, still holding my shorts open on that one.

[castleford tiger] 27/2/2018 17:47

Thanks

Backs up most views on here.
Billy big Bollokcs could have at least offered an apology.

TBF I was rather hoping we might pull back to give me another go for 25% (750/10.00 )

Unless market tanks its not going to happen

Tiger

[tresham] 27/2/2018 17:38

Just in case you are thinking of selling
I have compared and contrasted the following four companies and Dart is still much better value.

For Dart I have used the net assets at September and recalculated the earnings to make a seasonally fair comparison.
04/2016 to 09/2016 Earning = 90.7, 04/2016 to 03/2017 Earnings = 51.8 Implies 09/2016 to 03/2017 Earnings = -38.9, Add latest results 117p Implies year = 78.6p

GDW/NA NA/MKT Grwth Erngs PE

EZJ, 1679p 19% 42% 8% 77.5 21.6

DTG, 820p 1.2% 47% 34% 78.6 10.4

TCG, 124p 1100% 15% 15% 0.8 155

OTB, 580p 75% 13% 18% 13.8 42.1

GDW/NA is intangible divided by net assets
NA / MKT is net assets divided by market cap
Tresham

[woozle1] 26/2/2018 13:52

Anyone remember Thongo's price at which DTG was screaming short?
w1

[gersemi] 26/2/2018 13:31

just brilliant

[castleford tiger] 26/2/2018 13:30

Rockin Rolling Riding...........

Tiger

[cashandcard] 22/2/2018 15:51

Any thoughts on Flybe situation with Stobart Group ?


Cash

[castleford tiger] 22/2/2018 12:57

Happy with my target being met early!

Tiger

[woozle1] 22/2/2018 12:38

If the larger market cap begets a higher rating then 15 times 80p (next year's likely numbers) is an share price of £12 and £9.60 this year (64p times 15). I think that £10 px target may come sooner than expected.

w1

[woozle1] 21/2/2018 13:42

Hopefully the larger market cap will lead to a better rating.
w1
PS
CT, I laughed out loud reading Tongo's Greatest Hits (or rather Misses)

[nocton] 21/2/2018 10:05

"anyone see any press?"

The Times had a good article yesterday headed "Airline cashes in after rivals go down" and saying that the collapse of Monarch helped put "Jet2 into orbit".
This is the first time that I have seen anything about Dart in The Times, despite frequent coverage of RyanAir, EasyJet, Monarch, etc. One of the side effects of having bases in Stansted and Gatwick is that suddenly the mostly southern-based business reporters and investment managers have noticed Dart. A few months ago I spoke to someone who lives in Birmingham and had just taken a Jet holiday. Prior to that she said she had never heard of Jet. All extra for the share price.

[castleford tiger] 21/2/2018 09:42

I think you are right at 78p I was just comparing LFL.

However there was a huge boost post Monarch.

The brokers at 64p is certainly on the light side.
So probably 70p.

However we have rarely made more than 10x EPS so why the sudden push over 800p ?

Its grabbing attention in the CITY I had two calls yesterday.

Not sure GATWICK slots will or are good value, HOWEVER there are some great spaces at Bristol/Bournemouth etc.
I agree also with the increase in costs for promotion etc.
The future certainly looks bright and this years ( post April ) massive expansion looks fabulous
Tiger