Dart Share Discussion Threads

[woozle1] 21/2/2018 08:51

CT,
I think your 2018 numbers look a bit high. Canaccord just upgraded to 64p on the back of the recent trading statement and we are already near the y/e of 31st March. The scope for any material upgrades look limited.

Re 2019 numbers. The last number before for the big expansion was 60p EPS and we know that since then pricing has improved and they now operate from Stanstead and B'ham, which has doubled capacity. 70p seems low, therefore. That said, the brand in the SE is still in the build phase but awareness is accelerating thanks to heavy advertising and more people using them. It may take a bit longer. Moreover, I don't think Jet2 are going to stop at Stanstead and Bham and will likely expand in other bases and I think that this may depress earnings again;especially if Gatwick slots became available.

I know it's anecdotal but the wife's friend works for a large firm in Bham that used Jet2 to fly senior management to Spain for an offsite and some retired friends here in London rave about the winter sun packages mentioning the price and resort check in.



w1

[castleford tiger] 21/2/2018 07:50

LAST year we had

half time eps 90p full year 51p

current eps 117 full year 78p ( assuming same loss as previous year)

against this we have....

No set up costs this time round ( stan and Bx)
Higher prices and the MONARCH effect ( a one off)
less on-going competition ( short term)

Headwinds this year

New fleet costs and finance
More staff to pay during off season

Cons in the market seems to be low 60`s but July may well bring a surprise.

I doubt we will get an April update now as they have brought it forward.

So whilst I think price may drift a little if we produce in the 70`s I can see us well in the 80`s in the year starting April.
Big expansion in numbers this year and a better fleet mix.

Tiger

anyone see any press?

[shaker44] 21/2/2018 05:18

'What I don't understand is the condescending way he puts his views across..'

Seriously? Personality disorder. Is all

[woozle1] 20/2/2018 19:46

In all the stock market research about TCG I've never seen mention of Jet2, which is strange as Jet2 is eating them alive.
w1

[gersemi] 20/2/2018 18:51

You've done well here CT. More importantly, you understood and saw the potential. I like that vision. Others can learn from this

Well done

-


Castleford Tiger - 30 Nov '11 - 18:05 - 1 of 3719
0 0 0
Any reason for the new thread?

DTG is the new Thomas Cook.

lean and mean it will pick up business as others lose it'

-

[castleford tiger] 20/2/2018 18:38

DART GROUP WORTH A BILLION POUNDS.

First time we have been there and its just half way on my predicted 2 billion valuation.

Strong day again today.

We need it to build a base now.

Tiger

[castleford tiger] 20/2/2018 07:57

They are low and subject to upgrades.

Tiger

[snorkelparker] 20/2/2018 00:41

Seem low to me .. wonder what they are establishing their estimates on ? Are they getting a steer from DTG CFO ?

[woozle1] 19/2/2018 22:14

Cannacord are 64p for 2018
w1

[trewsa] 19/2/2018 20:59

No wonder considering I have paid twice as much to come home from Las Palmas tomorrow as I needed to.

[hatfullofsky] 19/2/2018 20:25

Arden Partners released a note this morning (Research Tree) FY18 ePBT £112m eEPS 61.2p / FY19 ePBT £110m eEPS 60p

[doogle99] 19/2/2018 18:02

Good call topping up at 635.

More upside to follow.

Kicking myself that I reduced my holding.

Hopefully it’ll be the last we hear of Dart expert Tongo.

[woozle1] 19/2/2018 17:23

He's probably at the bank arranging a new mortgage to cover his trading losses. Bless him!

[woozle1] 19/2/2018 16:10

Nothing yet from the stock market genius.
w1

[castleford tiger] 19/2/2018 16:02

Did anyone expect an Apology from Tong?

If he gives one please repost as I still have him blocked.

If he was still short .........ouch

Tiger

[woozle1] 19/2/2018 12:51

Not sure that we'll get an OTB multiple. The market seems to love websites more than physical assets. Ironically, DTG would probably get more for IPOing jet2's reservation system than the whole valuation.

The market has always struggled to value jet2 as there's no other comp; although Tui will eventually end looking more like DTG owning more of the travel infrastructure.

That said, investors love growth and there will be more coverage.

w1

[castleford tiger] 19/2/2018 12:23

What's been said in this statement is what we have been posting many times on here.

Great uplift from Monarch both in term of prices and numbers.

Market forecasts were well shy of reality.

Dart by nature are cautious and this statement has been forced as they are so far ahead.

Growth last year will be built upon and fleet will rise to 90

Numbers may hit 12m in the year starting 01.04.18.

We had certain posters telling us we were wrong and the share price did not reflect what we were saying.
Well being in was and remains the only way of gaining on the 17% jump today.

Its too late reading it and then buying. The real money was made buying those weak days a couple of weeks back.

Do I think its over ? Are we fully valued?

Certainly not. There is much more in the tank and at the moment market says 70p EPS x 10 times.
I stick by my £10.00 target as previously given but feel we may get there sooner.

This is a 2 billion pound company with what we know today.

Look at on your beach and their numbers and valuations. We are still very cheap.

Well done those who retained the faith.

Tiger

[shaker44] 19/2/2018 12:09

Well, congratulations Tiger. Your investment approach of pursuing and interpreting current business key performance indicators has paid off brilliantly. Of course.
An object lesson for those who believe you can steer a ship by looking at its wake....

[woozle1] 19/2/2018 11:11

Upgrade is to 64p this year (from 53p) and 61p on 2019 (though my guess now is that will be nearer 75p and not 90-100 that I suggested earlier on).

Still there's plenty of scope for growth as the brand becomes more accepted in the SE and it opens new bases and new routes elsewhere.
w1

[gersemi] 19/2/2018 10:54

What a stock. Superb

[woozle1] 19/2/2018 10:03

Anyone any idea of the new numbers? My guess is that 2019 will eventually be 90-100p of earnings making a £10 share price very likely. The big prize will be slots at Gatwick to improve coverage of the SE. There would be marketing cost benefits too because at the moment the London advertising is for Stansted only and Gatwick could be added without any major increase in ad spend

Slots at Bristol would give them the SW and S Wales and full nationwide coverage. Again, the bigger scale does increase the efficacy of the marketing spend.

It's all looking very exciting as the numbers confirm that the jet2 package offer has nationwide appeal. A friend who works in the travel industry told me that sometimes what works up North, does not work down South and that was a risk for DTG. Glad to see that's not the case

w1

[snorkelparker] 19/2/2018 09:56

CT, owe you a beer or two for the purchase at 635.. Cheers ears

[valhamos] 19/2/2018 09:44

FY19 "broadly in line" DTG not wanting to say too much at this stage but it has to say something because "Broadly in line with the current financial year" which is itself materially ahead means that FY19 is expected to smash existing FY19 forecasts (but I guess most on this board knew FY19 forecasts were too conservative / not up with events anyway).