Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[mcmather] 01/4/2016 20:07

Re-assuring; top of the hygiene ratings (Mansfield).

[davidosh] 29/3/2016 12:28

New Store @Cannock opens tomorrow Wednesday 30th March at 8.00am.

[davidosh] 29/3/2016 09:56

This is a nice touch for the openings and encourages folk who think Crawshaws are just a butcher to try the food to go offering...

....In celebration of both openings, all customers who spend £20 on fresh meat in either store in the first two weeks will receive lunch, completely free.

Crawshaws prides itself on offering shoppers great value meat, freshly prepared on the premises by qualified butchers, as well as a newly prepared ‘food to go’ menu which has recently been launched under the ‘Butcher’;s Kitchen’ brand.

[mcmather] 28/3/2016 13:41

Fresh meat and food to go retailer,Crawshaws, is opening its doors for the first time in Warrington and Widnesmid-April, creating 40 jobs. This will be the 43rd and 44th store to open for the fast growing butchery chain and is the third and fourth opening in the last two months in the North West...

The new 1,200 square foot unit in Warrington will occupy the old Boots Opticians site, adjacent to the Golden Square shopping Centre in the pedestrianised area. The new 1,300 square foot unit in Widnes will occupy the old Barratt Shoes store on the entrance of Green Oaks Shopping Centre.


Warrington -

The Widnes store cannot be viewed via google maps (ie as above) but is also positioned in a prime central location; I understand that it is the shop in the distance on the left in this image and at the entrance to a 'mall':

[tadders2] 24/3/2016 21:00

Well said Davidosh....couldn't have put it better myself .

[battlebus2] 24/3/2016 20:28

They would never hide them there playful, far too obvious :))

[playful] 24/3/2016 20:09

They should run a shareholder Easter Egg hunt and the winner gets a special Easter Hamper! I can just imagine Battlebus looking under all the meat trays.

I reckon the new Broadway shopping centre in Bradford would make a good location for a new store and then we must really move into North Yorkshire.

[davidosh] 24/3/2016 19:54

Happy Easter to all the staff, customers, shareholders/investors and indeed all stakeholders in the great company that is Crawshaws...

[playful] 23/3/2016 10:12

Expanding butchery chain Crawshaws to create 40 jobs in Warrington and Widnes

[shanklin] 21/3/2016 11:29

No problem, I need to do this analysis myself!!

[bozzy_s] 21/3/2016 11:10

Thanks Buffy and Martin - appreciate the effort.

[buffythebuffoon] 21/3/2016 10:21

Many thanks for your reply Martin; it's much appreciated.

Buffy

[celeritas] 21/3/2016 08:20

Its a decent enough business with plenty of room for growth but fundamentals need to pay catch up with the mkt cap.

[shanklin] 21/3/2016 08:10

Bit busy at the moment but my suggestion would be that you use the Sep-15 presentation, to build a model of the business over the next few years

p20 outlines the planned roll-out of new shops
p19 details the "New Store Model"

I would hope that combining these with other figures based on recent results would enable to build a model of CRAW's finances over the next five to six years.

Based on CRAW's previous statements, and provided it is not contradicted by your model, I would make the assumption that no more equity would be raised in the market, with new store openings being funded by cash generated by the business.

Hopefully you will get to figures for PBT and EPS in a steady state situation, i.e. with CRAW as a cash cow undertaking no more store openings.

HTH. Cheers, Martin

[buffythebuffoon] 20/3/2016 10:55

Morning Hydrus.

I wasn't asking David to 'do my homework' for me. I have done my homework, shown my workings in the margin and just can't get the figures to add up to a good investment. The current profit levels of the shops are not showing the trajectory that would give me the comfort to invest. I understand the basic mathematics of a rollout, and the exponential growth in earnings once a rollout slows down/stops. I just don't see CRAW as a good investment at the moment.

I know of no better investor in smallcaps than David, and have 'known' him since we both made good money from Ben Bailey (mainly due to, and many thanks to, David for his astonishing efforts at gleaning sales figures from a variety of BB sites). If David sees the investment case, and clearly he does, I really would love to see the figures he's basing his view on.

Personally, clearly like yourself, I get irritated when posters come to a board, with very little history of contributing, asking for others to spoonfeed them. With respect, as implied above, I do have a history. Admittedly it was on TMF more than on here for years, as in it's heyday it had the most informative, and civil boards. I do get a bit confrontational at times, but I like to feel that my contribution has been a clear net positive.

There are circumstances where PE is not too relevant. Oil exploration companies are the most extreme case, but other fast growth situations also qualify to some extent.

However, at some stage PE will matter. I don't know if you have ever run a business, as I have; but you'll find the ultimate yardstick is indeed PE. Let me give the famous example of a business that has a number of (appropriately named!) one arm bandits sited in retail outlets. Let's say there are ten, and they average takings of £50pw. What would you pay for that business? The first thing you'd need to know is what interest rate you could obtain by investing the money; the risk free rate. You'd want a better return than that for the risk of buying the business (machines break down, they get damaged, people stop donating money to the machine etc). You basically buy on the basis of so many years earnings. All businesses are the same. Whether it's a buyout by Tesco or Sainsbury, the considerations are no different, although a trade buyer is taking out a competitor of course.

As I say, I feel that my contributions are a net positive, as long as you sort the wheat from the chaff:-}

With David, it's nearly all wheat. I was just politely asking for a little of that wheat.

Regards,

Buffy

[tadders2] 19/3/2016 18:04

IMHO I do not think that the P/E ratio is the metric you should be looking at if you are thinking about investing in this company.

[buffythebuffoon] 19/3/2016 09:50

It's not just me then bozzy_s........

It would be good to see Carmensfella/Davidosh's opinion as to why this is a good investment. I get there are good men with a track record at the helm, and I get that there will be a massive roll out, but I'm wondering how they can become a Dominio's Pizza.

When they stop opening shops at such a rate I can see how earnings will improve, but I just don't see how this is a good investment at today's price.

David, if you have mentioned this somewhere, e.g. with some speculative figures, I would be greatly interested to read it, so if you would kindly let me know where I can find it. Or alternatively if there is some detailed analyst projections anywhere that would help.

I'd really like to get closer to having David's dosh...

Many thanks.

Buffy

[bozzy_s] 18/3/2016 23:14

Sorry to be a pain Shanklin & Davidosh, another quick request! I'm looking for broker forecasts for CRAW. Is the info in the link below correct / up to date / oomplete (i.e are there any other forecasts from different brokers?)

Forecast EPS of 0.18p for Y/E Jan-16, small loss for Jan-17, EPS of 0.7p for Jan-18, giving a current P/E of ~400 and a forward P/E of ~100.






Ta again in advance.

[mcmather] 18/3/2016 12:35

A Lidl theme in the featured managers:

Area Manager - "Prior to that I spent 5.5 years working for Lidl, four as an Area Manager"

Area Manager (in training) - "I worked for Lidl UK for 5 years gaining invaluable experience within store management".

[playful] 18/3/2016 11:19

I like the featured employees page as it gives people a better insight into the business from an employee’s perspective..

[mcmather] 17/3/2016 11:11

Cheers davidosh (11.28 in to the recording btw); reasonable buying this week as well it seems so far.

[davidosh] 17/3/2016 10:53

Another mention for our favourite butcher on the radio...

[shanklin] 17/3/2016 07:46

Blimey, more than a little fortunate to have CRAW's only premium butcher's shop nearby.