Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[cambium] 02/1/2007 10:45

Its times like these that one wishes one had bought considerably more

[cockneyrebel] 02/1/2007 10:36

Big breakout confirmation - I think these will go on and test the 930p resistance pretty quick from here myself.

CR

[chester] 02/1/2007 10:25

Looking very nice now.

[rivaldo] 02/1/2007 10:07

Yep, shouldn't take much to get to 900p either I'd have thought.

[cockneyrebel] 02/1/2007 08:21

Big breakout confirmation coming here imo - 850p bid soon I expect.

CR

[rogerbridge] 29/12/2006 14:47

Nice rise today, now well into profit on CKN. More to come and a lovely divi.

[rivaldo] 29/12/2006 12:17

Indeed :o))

CR, as you posted just afterwards did you see my question in post 765?

[chester] 29/12/2006 12:10

Lovely jubbly...

[cockneyrebel] 29/12/2006 12:10

Big break out fellas! :-)

CR

[rivaldo] 29/12/2006 12:09

Oh yes!

CR, when did Fulford Smith last buy then (apart from the last one)- I couldn't find it. Do you have a record of it?

[cockneyrebel] 29/12/2006 11:12

Yep, when you see the spread this am then 81op buy yesterday looks nice.

I reckon if the offer drops to 820p buyers will be lucky. Moer likely to see the bid creep up I think. Anyway, it's a nice breakout on low volume - suspect it will be confirmed after the break.

Richard Fulford Smith has been a guy to follow with his share-buying. I'm prepared to trust his timing to be better than mine with his knowledge of CKN. Shipping cycles are very difficult for the average investor to call but my gut feeling is, looking at the strenth the US/India/China and now Europe and particularly Germany are showing, then shipping is on an up leg imo.

CR

[rivaldo] 29/12/2006 09:17

Moving nicely through the gears now - perhaps realisation of the rise in the BDI is filtering through.

[rivaldo] 28/12/2006 22:05

Good post as usual es. In some ways though the present situation at CKN is preferable - freight rates are still high (and a lot higher than they were, so in theory that will reflect in CKN's results, far outweighing any dollar effect), whilst the core business has been greatly strengthened and diversified to provide other, less volatile earnings streams - i.e actually reducing the risk profile.

In the past the City never rewarded CKN with a higher P/E than 7 or 8 because of its volatility. Perhaps these results and the performance of the new businesses will enable CKN to throw off its shackles and show a new face to the markets which could result in a re-rating to a higher P/E? In which case, as stated before, I can't see much downside but can see excellent upside.

[edmundshaw] 28/12/2006 16:19

720p?

Rats, this blinking business is causing me problems! Need an eye upgrade... :-(

Still waiting for more from SOLA to unlock more of my profits there. (Only a 3 bagger and I'm waiting for more, how greedy can a man get? :-))

CKN more complicated as an investment than it was when it was (i) high yield, (ii) price not reflecting a booming shipping market (iii) on the up cycle of shipping and (iv) in a generally cheqp market.

Now CKN relies a bit more on corporate growth, the shipping mini-cycle swinging up while the dip in major cycle doesn't kick in and the dollar does not collapse; more risk, less upside.

I'll wait for £7 I think unless parameters change; but I expect there will be some positive return here anyway. Good luck.

[tanners] 28/12/2006 15:03

Blimey, that's a bit better!

bought some of these a month ago for around #7.90, and promptly watched it fall to #7.20....butI took the view it was merely a sentiment issue, so didn't let it worry me!

As you say rivaldo, the BDI rate is well ahead and demand for their business strong, and given the dividend as well these look a solid punt at these levels.......my only slight concern is the weakness of the dollar, but you can't it all I guess.

Personally i'm looking for a return back to around the #10 level......but may need some news to propel it back there.

[rivaldo] 28/12/2006 14:11

Hi CR, yep, would have liked some IAG but it's AIM again, and my AIM funds are locked up at the mo'. Can't win 'em all! Congrats though, another winner by the loks of it.

Have you looked at MMC? Director buying just before the year end, fully listed so ISAble, on the recovery path and very low P/E.

I agree about £9 by the way - when CKN goes it REALLY goes.

[cockneyrebel] 28/12/2006 12:49

£9 swift when these get away from here imo Rivaldo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 28/12/2006 12:48

cheers Rivaldo.

Chart's breaking out and that's a dead horny reverse head and shoulders formed too :-)

I hope you have looked at IAG - worth a peep, loads of cash and H" set to be a killer.

CR

[rivaldo] 28/12/2006 12:20

Me too CR! This is an interesting article quoting CKN themselves, indicating that any extra capacity is being eaten up by demand and freight rates are going higher - backing up the zooming BDI chart since Q2'06:



"Maersk, 15 Shipping Lines to Raise Europe-Asia Rates (Update1)

By Kyunghee Park

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- A.P. Moeller Maersk A/S, Mediterranean Shipping Co. and 14 other shipping lines plan to raise their rates for moving cargo to Europe from Asia as global demand expands.

The 16-member Far Eastern Freight Conference plans to raise three-month contract rates for shipping goods to Europe from Asia, excluding Japan, by $200 per 20-foot standard containers from Jan. 1, it said in a statement on its Web site. There were no guidelines for adjustments in the first quarter this year.

Maersk and other companies have said demand to move cargo by sea was stronger than expected, allowing them to stem a yearlong fall in rates caused by an increase in the number of ships. Higher charges will help improve shipping lines' profits, which have been eroded by fuel costs.

``The environment in the shipping industry appears to have improved much from last year with demand remaining strong,'' said Ryu Je Hyun, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities in Seoul. ``This should help the shipping lines as they negotiate with individual client on rate increases for next year.''

The group, which handles about 60 percent of trade between Asia and Europe, will also lift rates for one-year contracts for shipments to Europe from Japan by $300 per container from Jan. 1 and by $150 per box for contracts starting on July 1.

Increasing Trade

The container industry, which ships as much as 90 percent of the world's manufactured goods, has absorbed much of the extra capacity, stabilizing rates, London-based shipbroker Clarkson Plc said last month.

Trade to Europe from Asia increased 14 percent from year earlier and that to the U.S. rose 11 percent, stronger than the demand forecast of 10 percent, analyst Julie Lim at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a Nov. 15 note.

The 11-member Transpacific Stabilization Agreement, which includes Evergreen Marine Corp. and Cosco Container Lines Ltd., plans to raise the rate for moving cargo to the U.S. from Asia by $300 per 40-foot boxes next year.

Hapag-Lloyd AG said on Nov. 28 that it will raise rates for voyages to the North Atlantic coast of North America, the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. West Coast from Feb. 1. It will charge an extra $200 to ship a 20-foot container and $250 more for a 40- foot box.

The average rate for shipping goods to Europe from Asia dropped 22 percent from a year earlier to $1,408 per 20-foot container in the second quarter, according to Containerisation International, which tracks the industry."

[cockneyrebel] 28/12/2006 11:19

I agree - I think that if Richard Fulford Smith has been buying he has spotted the bottom of the shipping cycle and an up-trend in the making imo.


CKN has been a happy hunting ground for me over the past 5 years.

CR

[rivaldo] 28/12/2006 10:51

Picked up a few of these for the ISA a while ago at around 760p - good to see them moving up nicely.

The BDI is up to 4,397, far and away a year high and almost double the early 2006 levels:



Can't see much downside here and anything up to 50% upside. I may even have to top up.

[shanklin] 14/12/2006 06:57

A review of CKN on TMF



Cheers, Martin

[coco] 13/12/2006 15:01

The trend is starting to change here if we can clear 8.00 i have a feeling 9.00 will be with us in Jan