Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[hawks11] 29/9/2005 16:42

Back from my hols to find the price plunging and for no good reason that I can find, but I am feeling the effects of jetlag so might have missed the obvious. I am inclined to buy some when the price ceases its freefall. I keep missing the boat(sorry)on this one despite the fact I have been following it for ages.
I do like the last sentence of Mr Georgakis as posted by Andrbea on 533.

[andrbea] 29/9/2005 15:24

Excel Maritime:

We believe that the fundamentals in the dry bulk sector remain strong," explains Christopher Georgakis. "The rapid industrialization that is taking place in China, results in increased steel production and imports of raw materials which act as the principal drivers for strong freight rates. The first half of '05 GDP growth in China was 9.5% and industrial production growth was 16.5%. China's rapid growth rate, together with growth in the emerging economies of South East Asia, is behind the increase of seaborne trade of approximately 4% on an annual basis for the next three years. This increase in seaborne trade is expected to result in firm freight levels."

"What is very important to understand," continues Georgakis, "is that this demand is not consumer driven. It is demand related to core commodities necessary for infrastructure development and industrial activity. These imports go into electricity generation and steel making. Even if there is softening in Chinese GDP growth this does not necessarily translate into less electricity or less steel making, especially given China's preparation for the Olympics of 2008 and the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai. There are also other projects which will require large quantities of steel for the next several years such as a national electricity grid, a national highway system, and the Yangtse-Huangpu canal.

"Notwithstanding the above, in the summer of 2005 we did experience the effects of seasonality and the effects of inventory correction in China, but these do not alter the long-term fundamentals of the sector, which we believe to be sound."

[andrbea] 29/9/2005 15:21

As for freight rates, tanker ships are likely to see the impact of new supply coming on stream in two or three years.

The reason is that shipbuilders prefer to build tankers because they command higher profit margins compared to less sophisticated dry bulk containers.

But not all shipowners agree with the forecast of a correction.

"There will be fluctuations just like the past year but I do not expect a major drop in the shipping market. Many of the major mining houses in the world, such as BHP, Rio Tinto and Anglo American, their opinion is that we are not in the midst of a regular cycle but a super cycle. And as indicated by their reports, it will be measured in terms of decades, not years. And it's very much driven by China and increasingly India," said Hsu Chih-chien, chairman of Courage Marine Group.

[andrbea] 29/9/2005 12:54

The cost of building a standard 147,000cu m LNG tanker is $205mn, making them the most expensive type of commercial ship, according to London-based broker Clarkson Plc.
"It's a very important contract,'' said Mitra, the director of oil tankers and bulk shipping at Shipping Corp of India.
"India is looking more and more into using LNG for power. As the leading shipping company, we definitely want to be part of this.'' – Bloomberg

[grigor] 25/9/2005 02:07

World shipping heads for doldrums
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Filed: 22/09/2005)


The global shipping boom will fizzle out next year as demand fades and extra tonnage expands the merchant fleet, according to a gloomy report by the Swiss bank UBS.

The bank's global shipping analyser said freight fees would tumble 15pc in 2006 and a further 5pc in 2007, ending the profits bonzana for shipping companies. It said oil tanker rates would remain strong.

"Not only is demand softening, but the supply order-book is shortening," said the bank, predicting that container capacity would rise by 14.5pc next year.

It said the "staggering growth" led by Chinese exports since December 2001 was now clearly over.

"Total sea export growth to the US and northern Europe is now slowing across all industry, with the exception of clothing," it said. Exports of Chinese furniture, toys and shoes have reached "saturation level", while there are signs that China is "moving up the value chain" to more sophisticated products that required less ship space.

Freight rates for shipping manufactured goods have shot up 46pc since 2002 on the main Atlantic and Pacific routes but may now have peaked.

The Baltic Exchange Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping coal, grain, iron ore and other goods worldwide, soared over 500pc from the beginning of the decade to late 2004, but has since given up half the gains.

UBS downgraded the shares of AP Moller-Maersk, the world biggest freight company, which have tumbled in recent days after a 55pc rise during 2005. "We think that the market is assuming too much upside at the current price from the high oil price," it said.

China's Cosco Holdings have dropped 8.3pc over the past week on freight worries.

Rotterdam, the world's biggest port, said yesterday that the freight bonanza of the past 18 months was over, though it hoped for recovery next year.

"Things are slowing down. There's a lot of slack in Europe where people are not consuming enough, but the biggest change has been the slowdown in trade with the UK," said port spokesman Minco van Heezen.

[mac] 23/9/2005 11:28

Thanks Andrbea.

Lauders. Despite past volatility of earnings, on which as a newcomer I am no expert. I have to say the lt trend is very good & growth in NAV is brilliant, which is one of the obvious measures of value.

[andrbea] 20/9/2005 11:43

China COSCO's first-half results were also lifted by contributions from 52%-owned ports unit COSCO Pacific Ltd. (1199.HK),which earlier said its first-half net profit doubled to US$214.8 million on higher port capacity and a one-off disposal gain.

Xu said China COSCO still sees some room for increases in shipping rates in the second half of this year, with shipping capacity likely to be in equilibrium with demand.

That trend is expected to continue into 2006, Xu said. "Freight rates should remain mostly steady next year, and could even rise a bit towards the second half."

He said the company's growth in the next few years will be bolstered by new capacity. China COSCO's shipping capacity will rise 24% from the current level to 380,000 TEUs by the end of 2006.

The company's optimism over the shipping market is in contrast to concerns by industry experts that the global shipping demand will decline beginning 2006.

CSFB said earlier in a report that it is "still concerned...there will be a downward move in freight rates next year."

The investment bank expects freight rates to soften in the fourth quarter this year, as container shipping demand eases.

[andrbea] 20/9/2005 07:49

dry bulk
18.9.05; Barry (Paris)

"As expected last week, the Capesize market continued its way up, especially in the Atlantic where the market increased by another roughly US$10,000 from low 40's to low 50's. The other routes increased as well and as very often in a bullish and climbing market, period activity continued with several vessels fixed for short period and also longer term period. The one year period rates are now well established in the low 40's."

crude (16.9.05)

While bunker prices keep handicapping owners' daily returns, demand for VLCC tonnage in the Middle East Gulf has again been well sustained and rates have continued their upward move. Voyages to the East ended the week at or slightly above WS80, providing returns around US$35,000 per day. In comparison, with rates fetching WS80 to the West, tce are getting closer to US$50,000 per day. With about 70 ships available over next 4 weeks and hardly 23 fixtures concluded for loading in October so far, one can expect more improvement on rates next week. Lack of such large modern units in West Africa has resulted in rates as high as WS95 for voyages to the US Gulf, but the present poor Suezmax market from this zone should not allow any further improvement...

[friendzarin] 17/9/2005 07:40

BDI now stands at 2949 (16/09) on an upward curve since last reported here at 2424 (05/09).

2977(19/09)

[liverpoolunity] 13/9/2005 21:49

Shipping enthusiasts should take a look at HMY which designs and manufactures pumping sets for LNG carriers and also shoreside installations. The market for the forseeable future is immense also the thread is a bit quiet. Worth a peek.

[lauders] 13/9/2005 10:37

Just incase anyone missed it from the above!

Should be good for the future and help achieve the stable earnings CKN are aiming for and not the so seasonal side of earnings they used to have.

[andrbea] 12/9/2005 12:09

the ws values were ca 60 (low point) on 12 August
so some improvement since : click the link for a graph of the current WS values)



tanker newsletter vlcc 9.9.05

"Demand for VLCC tonnage in the Middle East Gulf continued at a very stable pace and rates, as anticipated, gained about 10 points (at least for double hull ships). Voyages to the West ended the week in the mid WS70's equivalent to close to US$45,000 per day tce despite the high bunker costs. With the strong influence of single hulls, voyages to the East are slower to progress and ended the week in the mid/high WS70's (still less than US$35,000 per day). With about 100 vessels available over the next four weeks and nominations still to come, one can wonder if this trend will be maintained next week. Double hull VLCCs have also been influenced for West Africa/US Gulf voyages with rates as high as WS85 (close to US$40,000 per day)."

[andrbea] 09/9/2005 10:00

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--UBS analysts initiated coverage of Frontline Ltd. (FRO.NYS) with a buy rating Tuesday, saying a "perfect storm" appears to be forming for the oil tanker industry as short-haul sea and piped production is in decline while long-haul production from the Arabian Gulf, Africa and the Caspian Sea is increasing.

A spike upward in tanker rates in the fourth quarter looks "increasingly possible," leading to a dividend yield of 20% if tanker rates reach fourth quarter 2004 levels, the analysts said. "

[friendzarin] 09/9/2005 09:50

Bought a few of these pre interims and so am new to the share.Will hold on for the time being and see how things develop.I can't seem to get a hold as yet on how the share price bobbles about on hardly any (and today so far no published) trades.Is this share price movement normal ?

[mac] 08/9/2005 00:29

Evo have made them a buy, without Katrina.
Evo:-
""Should the company decide to charter the vessel, we anticipate net cash will
reach £48m by Dec-05 and £58m by Dec-06.

Recommendation
Stripping out the cash (262p per share), Clarkson's is merely trading on 5.8 times
FY06 post tax earnings. The market is clearly assuming freight rates take a further
lurch downward and earnings will consequently fall away. In addition, we believe
the market is overlooking the emerging contribution from non-ship broking
markets. Therefore, if freight rates continue to hold firm (as we expect) investors
are likely to re-evaluate the Clarkson's story and once again push the shares
higher. ""



They appear to be trending in the right direction too. So looks good for CKN.

There longterm picture of growing NAV is pretty impressive too.

[andrbea] 06/9/2005 10:45

"Tanker rates for carrying petrol from Europe to the US rose 60 per cent last week as oil trading companies booked tankers to transport supplies across the Atlantic to alleviate tight petrol supplies in the US. "

[rivaldo] 06/9/2005 08:34

I can't reconcile the above at the moment - the BDI was down again yesterday, 55 to 2,424. And VLCC rates appear only stable.

[ddav] 05/9/2005 09:36

Business:

Britain to release 2.2m barrels of oil to avert fuel crisis
By Peter Klinger and Daniel Murdoch

BRITAIN was last night preparing to release 2.2 million barrels of oil after President Bush's urgent plea for help for hurricane-stricken southern America to avert a global fuel crisis.

The intervention is the first time since the 1991 Gulf War that Britain and the other 25 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) have made available emergency fuel supplies. The plea came after gasoline (petrol) shipping rates surged 50 per cent over the past two days and brokers said that rates were being revised every hour.

The IEA said that its members would release two million barrels of oil a day, for 30 days, to ease the shortfall in the United States. The barrels will be a mix of crude and refined oil. Britain's contribution of 73,000 barrels a day compares with the 92,000 barrels offered by France, while Spain will release 70,000 barrels.

The IEA members' offer of support does not include transportation of the oil, but is designed to add extra supply to the already stretched global gasoline levels.

The UK's emergency oil supplies - 63 million barrels of crude and 45 million barrels of refined, or enough to meet 80 days of domestic demand - are held by industry operators such as BP.

Hurricane Katrina has caused widespread damage to the American oil industry, reducing its refining capacity by 1.8 million barrels a day. The US has ample crude oil reserves but insufficient refining capacity, and is fast running out of petrol. Analysts have already given warning that any fuel crisis to beset the US would quickly spread around the world.

Petrol tankers are receiving fuel from unaffected refineries in the Gulf, the Caribbean, and out of Europe, including Milford Haven in Pembrokeshire.

Malcolm Wicks, the Energy Minister, said that Britain's contribution would not affect domestic supply. He said: "This is a global oil market and so a multilateral response is the right way forward. The UK is a net exporter of petrol and there is no disruption of supplies to, or within, the UK."

The market had anticipated the IEA action. Gasoline futures in the US fell by up to 10 per cent while October crude futures were down $1.82 at $67.65 a barrel. In London, Brent crude was down $1.62 at $66.10. Sterling gained 0.3 per cent against the dollar to $1.8411.

However, gasoline shipping rates continued to rise, with prices up 50 per cent over the past 48 hours to reflect soaring demand for carriers. Brokers said that 30 cargoes of gasoline had already been privately booked in Europe and were headed for US shores. However, it would take at least ten days for European gasoline to reach the US.

A spokesman for Braemar Seascope, the shipping company, said that oil companies and traders with contracts to meet were in competition with each other and driving up prices. Rates were now $30,000 a day for a ship capable of transporting 45,000 tonnes of petrol. Before the hurricane the rate was $20,000, already significantly higher than the usual rate. Pump prices have gone up 50 cents to more than $3 a gallon in some parts of the US.

[support999] 05/9/2005 09:34

a 10,000 buy order at 890.5 just placed but someone sold 7,200 fairly quickly. Will be interesting to see how the price moves today and if an sellers appear.

[support999] 05/9/2005 09:30

andreaba,

Thats spot the reason for the rise in CKN shares. Also, there have been and again today larger than normal buy orders on the SETS MM order book and no sell orders apart from the market makers.

Am hoping for £10 a share on this one.

[support999] 05/9/2005 09:12

but the share price is up again. Am still looking for £10 a share.

[rivaldo] 05/9/2005 08:08

BDI down 69 to 2,479 on Friday and VLCC rates stable.