Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[evilwebby] 25/7/2005 13:25

Gone a bit quiet. Not holding at present, but I think this is a great buying opportunity.

BDI is surely due an upturn soon, on which CKN should fly.

[andrbea] 22/7/2005 13:44

WHERE THE MOMENTUM IS. On the other side of the globe, the transatlantic Conference Agreement, or TACA, a coalition that consists of seven major container lines, is planning further rate hikes, according to the American Shipper. For shipments from Europe to the U.S., Drewry projects double-digit growth in freight rates for 2005, with westbound shipments from Europe rising 1.5% and eastbound volume growing 3.3%. An affiliate of JoC, the Port Import Export Reporting Service (PIERS) forecasts that imports from Europe will rise 4.6% in 2005, while exports to Europe will grow 4.2%. "

[andrbea] 18/7/2005 10:50

interesting article on 'congestion'

"Operationally, a mega ship will cause congestion. A new 8000-TEU vessel will probably disgorge about 6,000 TEUs on the quay-line of a hub port as compared to 2,000 TEUs by a 5,000-TEU capacity vessel. Which means, a mega ship has to stay at the berth for a longer period.

Also, the key trade lanes will see big ships calling at hub ports within hours of one another. Which means, as a mega ship stays in the berth there will be several others lining up for berths.

The cumulative effect of all this is that there will be congestion.

The problem of congestion hit some of US west coast ports badly last year and is likely to cause concern in several European ports this year.

Even Jawaharlal Nehru port had been a victim of the same. The situation is likely to worsen in the coming years. Remember, the 12,000-TEU vessels are not far away.

There are other issues. The hinterland too has to be developed to be able to cater to the requirements of the new capacity vessels.

Otherwise, the supply chain will not work effectively and customer requirements will not be met. This will push up the cost. In fact, the maritime logistics chain is likely to be overstretched.

The new generation mega ships will need ports with deeper draughts. This will limit the number of ports they can call at. Transhipment will increase and, with it, the repositioning of the empties.

As it is, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants, transshipped containers account for 100 million TEU movement, representing 28 per cent of the total handled and the repositioning cost of the empties last year amounted to a staggering 16.5 per cent of the combined carrier income. "

[andrbea] 15/7/2005 09:23

"July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Supertanker bookings for oil exports from the Middle East reached their highest monthly level this year in July, doubling shipping costs, as OPEC increased output.

Shipping rates to Asia have doubled in the past three weeks after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps about 40 percent of the world's oil, last month agreed to raise daily production quotas by 500,000 barrels to 28 million barrels. OPEC raised quotas July 1 in a bid to lower record oil prices that threatened global economic growth. "

[hawks11] 14/7/2005 12:42

Well I was looking at August for a move upward but perhaps August has come early this tear. This sudden upward blip may mean our upward trend is about to begin.

[andrbea] 14/7/2005 10:48

finally, on the subject of "freight derivatives"

"Both freight derivatives commissions and physical freight commissions are a function of the freight price, so both will drop if freight prices drop, as they are likely to do next year as more ships come into service, he says. However, physical freight commissions may be less prone to volatile price moves than FFA commissions, says the source, due to the relationships physical shipping brokers have in the market. So in effect, FFA commissions are more likely to fall more steeply than physical freight commissions.

All this may mean inter-dealer brokers have to acquire a shipping broker or set up their own physical freight brokerage, as they perhaps should have done in the first place, says our source.

London-based Spectron and ship broker Braemar Seascope formed a partnership called Braemar Spectron to broker FFAs in October. London-based Icap and shipping broker JE Hyde formed a similar partnership in January. GFI in May partnered with McQuilling Brokerage Partners to create a wet freight derivatives broking desk at McQuilling's offices in New York. "

July 7

[andrbea] 14/7/2005 10:44

July 13, 2005
Posted to the web July 13, 2005


"The amalgamation of some of the world's largest shipping lines will give the AP-Moeller group complete control over the SA-European Conference , which consists of Safmarine and Maersk (both subsidiaries of the group), and P&O Nedlloyd.

The grouping was the only conference plying the SA-European route and fruit exporters feared that monopoly control would push up shipping rates and give one entity total power over vessel capacity, availability and programming, Capespan logistics CEO Dawie Ferreira said yesterday."

[andrbea] 14/7/2005 10:34

Monday July 11, 4:00 PM

"The Baltic Dry Index, a key measure of ocean freight rates, fell to 4,024 points in early May, compared with a high of 6,208 on Dec. 6, 2004, when the index was boosted by high demand from China for iron ore.

The industry usually sees improvement in freight rates in the third and fourth quarters of the year, when industrial sectors build up inventories.

"That time will likely come in the early part of next month," Hashim said.

He doesn't expect the BDI to slide below 3,000 this year, which will represent an improvement on the low of last year's slow season at 2,622 in late June. "

[johnrxx99] 14/7/2005 09:00

Opened with buys, could this be the turn?

Edit: Perhaps wishful thinking!

[evilwebby] 12/7/2005 20:27

Chart says we're heading back to 700p in the short term. I'm out for now, but think CKN could quite easily manage 100p eps this year? That would put us on a p/e of 7, not including the big cashpile!

[andrbea] 11/7/2005 12:35

and also:

"2005-07-11 13:13
Analysts are expecting freight rates in the dry segment to rise in the near future and shipping companies are expected to benefiting from it.

Director of Mercator Lines, Shalabh Mittal says that very large crude carrier, VLCC, rates, bulk rates and freight futures look positive, at the moment. He believes that freight rates always follow a standard pattern. Therefore, they moved down in the current season. However, in the post-monsoon season, they look positive again."

[rivaldo] 11/7/2005 12:32

Yep, not overjoyed at the share price fall. But generally it seems to have been on low volumes, as per today. I think the interims will be good enough to wake people up to the transformation that CKN have been undertaking - the upside in the graph from mid-2003 and mid-2004 are hopefully testament to how the market works with regard to CKN.

[andrbea] 11/7/2005 12:14

good point jeremy
there is joy elsewhere though:

July 8; freight rates (crude)

"VLCC activity from the Middle East Gulf in July, with close to 120 fixtures concluded is the highest level registered since January and has again helped the owners to pursue their recovery. Rates end the week above WS90 for eastern destinations (more than 20 points increase in a week) providing daily returns close to US$45,000 (double of what they were two weeks ago). "

[jeremyness] 11/7/2005 12:09

Unfortunately the BDI currently stands at 2,365 so that's one expectation that has not been met. There's no sign of the BDI bouncing either which I guess is one reason for the current weakness in CKN's share price.

[andrbea] 11/7/2005 10:22

The Baltic Dry Index, a key measure of ocean freight rates, fell to 4,024 points in early May, compared with a high of 6,208 on Dec. 6, 2004, when the index was boosted by high demand from China for iron ore.

The industry usually sees improvement in freight rates in the third and fourth quarters of the year, when industrial sectors build up inventories.

"That time will likely come in the early part of next month," Hashim said.

He doesn't expect the BDI to slide below 3,000 this year, which will represent an improvement on the low of last year's slow season at 2,622 in late June. "

[andrbea] 07/7/2005 08:27

euronav finished 3% higher yesterday

....continuing earlier rises
this dated July 1st:
"Outside the Bel 20, shipping stocks Euronav and CMB ended positively, up 6.23 and 2.48 pct respectively"

[andrbea] 06/7/2005 12:41

crude: July 1st

"Activity for VLCC tankers was again sufficiently sustained to allow owners of double hull tankers to continue slowly improving their returns. From the Middle East Gulf to the East, rates are today fetching WS70 (US$30,000/day) which corresponds to a 10 points improvement compared to last week. Same increase has been noted for voyages to the West with about WS60 to the US Gulf (about US$35,000/day). Although tonnage availability for next 4 weeks has been sharply diminished to about 45 units, one must note that more than 100 fixtures have already been concluded for loading in July, leaving poor expectation of much further demand for balance of the month. Lack of suitable tonnage has also affected the market in the West and voyages from West Africa to the US Gulf are now treated at WS80 (close to US$40,000/day)."

[hawks11] 05/7/2005 20:31

I second that remark to Andrbea Stromboli. It will soon be time to buy these shares for a 20% rise and if there is anyone to spot the indicators it is Andrbea.
H

[edmundshaw] 04/7/2005 15:53

BDI down recently. Tankers iffish, only containerships holding up.

While demand is still strong longer term (after the current summer dip), there are more vessels coming on stream. Not sure we haven't hit the buffers here, so I think I'll stick to my oil plays and hold fire on shipping till the summer lull is over and the future direction of this market is clearer.

Will watch and wait, I like this company, but TBH I have no idea of what the right entry point will be for me.

[stromboli1] 01/7/2005 17:45

andrbea: good to see you here.

[andrbea] 01/7/2005 16:27

ok folks; will post here instead; tks for 'coming to get me'

:-)

here's another comment out today:

"Freight rates for very large crude carriers, which transport 2 million barrels of oil, jumped to a six-week high after a surge in bookings for July, Paris-based shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles said yesterday.

``All the evidence is that there's a lot of Saudi oil on its way to the U.S. at the moment,'' said David Thurtell, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. "

[iroll] 01/7/2005 15:52

Seconded. Many thanks.

[rivaldo] 01/7/2005 15:50

Andrbea, can I ask that you come back to the other (main?) CKN thread? I think those who objected to your posts (Diogenes) are gone now, and most, including myself, find your posts really useful.

Thanks.

EDIT - peculiar goings on today - is someone intent on accumulating CKN in very very small parcels of shares?!

[andrbea] 01/7/2005 15:23

Oil Supertanker Rates Set to Rise on U.S. Imports (Update2)
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Oil-tanker operators led by Frontline Ltd. and Titan Petrochemicals Group may increase the amount they charge for space on supertankers this quarter as U.S. purchases of Middle East crude oil rise, a survey showed. "