Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 01/6/2005 11:51

Doh :0))

Thx tomrob, must try harder...well, that's brightened my day!

[tomrob] 01/6/2005 11:48

Gone ex-div 16p, fallen 15.5p.

t

[rivaldo] 01/6/2005 11:43

So what's happened today then? Maybe a carry-over from yesterday's trades, as nothing's happened today trade-wise.

Despite a good AGM statement and positive noises from Frontline and BMS the price has dipped again and is on a current year P/E of 8.7. I'm not sure peeps have appreciated how good the interims should look given they'll include that £2.5m profit on carrier sale...

[rivaldo] 31/5/2005 08:59

Frontline's results are out today:



Slightly down on Q4 last year due to the dip in rates which seems to happen at the start of each year. But the outlook is very positive. This extract is interesting, and reassuring for CKN:

"The tanker market looks relatively healthy for the remainder of the
year. The freight futures market seems to be reflecting this view,
and at the moment it is possible to sell freight futures for the rest
of the year 2005 at a level that equates to approximately $45,000 per
day on VLCCs, and $40,000 per day for 2006. For Suezmaxes we can
now hedge the rest of the year 2005 at $33,000 per day and $31,000
per day for 2006."

[andrbea] 27/5/2005 14:57

"In a note published last week, Merrill Lynch had estimated that container shipping lines on trans-Pacific routes have managed to negotiate a further 3-5 pct increase in freight rates this year.

This is on top of the 400 usd per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) surcharge the liners want to charge during the peak season from June 15 to November 30, it said.

Shipping lines are negotiating higher rates to offset rising costs arising from infrastructure bottlenecks in the ports and prevailing high oil prices, it said."

[andrbea] 27/5/2005 14:27

I agree, Rivaldo, sounds like a good appointment.

General comment:
IMO the forward freight side of the business looks an exciting area going forward; take a look at this New York company, they have 900 people on their payroll; it's big business!


"ACM/GFI Joins Forces With McQuilling in New York
Thursday May 19, 1:52 pm ET
ACM/GFI Links With Specialist in Global Marine Transport of Crude and Petroleum Products to Provide Forward Freight Agreements in the US

..../


About GFI Group Inc. (www.GFIgroup.com)

GFI Group Inc., through its various subsidiaries, is a leading inter-dealer broker specializing in over-the-counter derivatives products and related securities. GFI Group Inc. provides brokerage services, market data and analytics software products to institutional clients in markets for a range of credit, financial, equity and commodity instruments.

Headquartered in New York, GFI was founded in 1987 and employs more than 900 people with additional offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Singapore and Sydney. GFI provides services and products to over 1,300 institutional clients, including leading investment and commercial banks, corporations, insurance companies and large hedge funds. Its brands include GFI, GFInet ® and FENICS "

[rivaldo] 27/5/2005 14:19

Interesting new appointment:

"The Board of Clarkson PLC, the holding company of the shipping services group,
announces that Mr. Robert Benton has been appointed a non-executive director of
the Company.

Bob Benton is the Group Chief Executive of Bridgewell Group Limited having
joined Bridgewell in January 2002 as Head of Bridgewell Securities.

Before joining Bridgewell, Bob was Chairman and Chief Executive of Charterhouse
Securities, which was purchased by ING in 2001. Before that, he was Global Head
of Sales at ABN AMRO for three years and was the Managing Director of HSBC JamesCapel between 1992 and 1994.

Tim Harris, Chairman, said he was delighted to welcome Bob to the Board and was
confident that his extensive business experience would provide great benefits to Clarksons."

Are CKN about to undertake some corporate activity maybe? Or are they conscious that they may need some investment banking expertise if those takeover rumours are true?

Just speculative and sunny afternoon musings :0))

[rivaldo] 26/5/2005 10:13

Lots of good buying already, and now a 6,500 buy at 920p. It seems that the big boys continue to be interested in taking positions in this stock.

[rivaldo] 25/5/2005 15:23

OK, let's see how this goes then - I managed to get some straight after the statement. I'm cautious about freight rates, but the statement is very strong. It's pretty obvious that H1 results are going to be good, especially with the flagged £2.5m ship sale profit.

If the continuing strength prompts a re-rating I suppose this could go to EVO's £14 target, particularly with bid interest. At worst there should be minimal downside. And we're entitled to a 16p divi in a few days time.

[yogi] 25/5/2005 14:11

AGM Statement just out - makes good reading.

TRADING STATEMENT

"Although the scaling back of growth in demand from China, Japan and the Far
East has resulted in freight rates declining from the record highs achieved late
last year, the first four months of this financial year have started well.
Freight rates, as measured by our ClarkSea Index have averaged just under
US$30,000 per day, well above the average for last year, despite falling from
US$33,500 at the end of 2004 to US$24,900 at present.

We remain committed to providing a global service for all our clients, focussing
on the underlying cargo base. We have a significant presence in all the major
tanker centres around the world and our influence in this sector is increasing.
The acquisition of Ferrobulk has been integrated successfully and earlier this
month we added a dedicated Liquid Petroleum Gas team to our London desk. We are
committed to the continued growth of our existing teams.

Our logistics business has sold one of its two Singapore based combination
carriers and our share of the profit is approximately #2.5 million. Clarkson
Ferries recently acquired the CFF Seine, thereby guaranteeing continuity of
service for Channel Freight Ferries on its daily sailings.

Early this month we successfully moved our London operations from Camomile
Street to larger and more modern office space at St Magnus House, adjacent to
London Bridge. I would like to thank all those who made this possible with
minimal interruption of the existing business.

In conclusion, the company continues to generate high volumes of business. The
major part of this will underpin the results for the remainder of this financial
year. There is also a significant element that will help build a sound base for
future periods. Furthermore, the company continues to benefit from the forward
business booked in previous periods.

With continued growth forecast in the world economy, the outlook remains
positive with trading and profitability in line with management's expectations.

As we indicated in the Annual Report and Accounts, the directors are seeking to
appoint a new non-executive director to improve the overall balance of the
board. We hope to make an announcement on this matter shortly.

I would like take this opportunity to thank all our employees who made such a
significant contribution in achieving the record result in 2004."

[james111] 25/5/2005 09:28

rivaldo thanks

[rivaldo] 25/5/2005 08:38

Normally any time around 11.30-1.00 James.

BDI down again yesterday, 66 points to 3,430.

[james111] 25/5/2005 08:23

what time are we expecting the statement?

regards james.

[doubleorquits] 24/5/2005 15:22

AGM should clarify anything that needs clarifying IMO. BDI may be falling but five months in the bag of strong conditions (if we believe BMS) and the prospect of the BDI actually turning up like last year. The dollar is getting slightly stronger too which may offset some of the fall off in freight prices but CKN do tend to mirror the BMS growth - and then go one better. And all at a cheaper price. Without adding in anything for the potential to beat forecasts these are on a PE of around 8.

As Yogi points out we are still some 30% higher on the BDI than we were last year - June proved the bottom then. Perhaps we have not hit the same heights but on average I would say we are still ahead. If that is so and BMS are OK I expect CKN to be further ahead.

[yogi] 24/5/2005 11:54

Rivaldo, dont forget that the BDI went down to about 2600 at this time last year also. As such this years average to date still looks as good as last year. The other information on shipping still seems to point to a reasonibly positive medium term. I guess an AGM statement tomorrow will make it all a lot clearer for us either way.

Yogi.

[rivaldo] 24/5/2005 09:00

BDI down again yesterday, 27 points to 3,496.

[andrbea] 24/5/2005 08:23

China's container handling capacity ranks top of the world

During the 2005 China International Logistics Week held in Shanghai from May 18 to 21, Feng Zhenglin, vice minister of Communication said that China has eight 100-million-tonnage ports, accounting for half of the world's ten largest ports. China now has become one of the most dynamic and potential global shipping markets. In 2004, the shipping capacity of containers in China's ports stood at 616 million standardizing boxes, ranking the world's top."

[andrbea] 24/5/2005 07:37

wave of consolidation in shipping?

"Miles' CP Ships, the world's No. 17, which is recovering after restating its results last year, is one of the few generally accepted possible targets. Miles declined to comment on rumors. Yet CP Ships may be mentioned partly because it is a rare publicly traded company in which chunks of shares can change hands."

[andrbea] 24/5/2005 07:33

"Maritime analysts have long warned of the far-reaching perils of such an attack: freight rates could surge 500 percent or more as ships carrying much of Asia's oil requirements make a detour of around 1,000km through the Indonesian archipelago.

Lee prefers not to discuss threats to waters that carry about 55,000 ships a year."

[cockneyrebel] 23/5/2005 10:28

Look cheap again don't they, especially as BMS said this recently:

BMS recently said this:

"The shipping market has continued strongly during our first fiscal quarter. It
is undoubtedly the case that the benefit to shipping over the last year or more
has been driven by industrial growth in Asia supported by a healthy trade with
many countries. The outlook for shipbroking remains positive while these
favourable market conditions persist."


What's the forward PE? 8 according to the forecasts - won't surprise me if it's a lot lower in reality.

AGM Weds should be interesting.

CR

[andrbea] 23/5/2005 08:40

re: container market

"Due to all these factors, Mr. Bourne concluded that shippers need to be prepared for further rate increases. Many trades have already seen steady rate restorations and freight rates will have to continue rising. Only then will shipping lines be able to support the continual growth in world trade and provide customers with the high level of service they demand in terms of capacity and transit times."

[tundertre] 23/5/2005 08:28

Good morning.
I wonder if any of you old salts can tell me anything about Global Oceanic Carriers. I beleife it is to be entered on AIM, but can't find much material on the issue at all.

Thanks in anticipation. T123

[rivaldo] 23/5/2005 08:22

BDI down another 36 to 3,523 and VLCC markets still tumbling per Galbraiths' charts.

I'm sure the AGM statement will be positive and CKN will be making good money -but nevertheless H1 could be well down on last year if rates continue to tumble this fast (aside from that one-off ship sale). I'll carry on watching.