Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[support999] 26/8/2005 15:19

lets hope so!

[rivaldo] 26/8/2005 14:53

Lloyds have increased their holding in CKN by 166,022 shares to 5.3255%, i.e spending around another £1.4m - confident just prior to results next Wednesday:

[andrbea] 25/8/2005 15:05

earnings from AP Moeller

/...

The company, controlled by Danish billionaire Maersk Mc- Kinney Moeller, 92, this month bought rival Royal P&O Nedlloyd NV for $2.8 billion to become the world's biggest ship operator. It also bought North Sea oil assets for $2.95 billion from Kerr McGee Corp. Crude oil prices rose 34 percent in the first half, averaging $51.66 a barrel. P&O Nedlloyd NV said container freight rates rose an average 13 percent.

``On the container side they will see a double win,'' said Peter Kerr-Dineen, the co-chairman at London-based shipbroker Howe Robinson, in an interview before the earnings release. ``We'll see a rise in shipping volumes and a rise in shipping rates.''

[spob] 25/8/2005 14:29

Frontline Sails On
The tanker operator offers prodigious dividends despite tough shipping rates.
THE MOTLEY FOOL
Updated: 12:28 p.m. ET Aug. 24, 2005

As generally expected, the second quarter of this year was a bit tougher for operators of oceangoing tankers and cargo ships. Nevertheless, Frontline(NYSE: FRO) posted a quarter that surpassed analyst expectations.

Compared to last year, daily income for Frontline's VLCC (very large crude carrier) and smaller Suezmax-class ships fell about 14% and 7% respectively, while daily income per ship for Suezmax OBO (ore/bulk/oil) vessels rose 35%. (Only about 10% of Frontline's fleet falls in this class.) Nevertheless, revenue for the period dropped only 6%.

While operating income plunged significantly from the first quarter (down about 40%), it rose 3% year over year. In addition, net income still managed to surpass mean analyst estimates by a healthy margin.

With the second quarter's results in tow, management declared a $2-per-share dividend -- below last quarter's $3.10, but well above the year-ago $1.60. That seems incredibly generous, given Frontline's current $44 share price. Dividend volatility is one of this stock's risk factors as a high-yield play. Management has a laudable commitment to returning capital to shareholders, but the amount will vary from quarter to quarter with the state of the business. Keep in mind that Frontline's 12-month historical dividend history isn't necessarily a reliable predictor of future results.

Management believes that shipping rates will improve in the second half of the year, and the current shipping futures market supports that idea. I don't think rates will reach the exceptionally high levels of last year's second half, but double-digit sequential improvements for both the third and fourth quarter are certainly reasonable.

As one of the largest operators of VLCC-class ships, Frontline's success is closely tied to the global demand for oil. While the exact figures of supply and demand will change from quarter to quarter, I believe that worldwide oil shipments will probably continue to rise. Though new pipelines are being built, ocean-going vessels should still play a major role.

However, Fools should realize that this is not a risk-free income play. Frontline's fleet isn't that old, but only about two-thirds of its ships are double-hulled. That's something to keep in mind for the future, when mandatory phaseouts of single-hulled ships take effect.

Nevertheless, Frontline continues to generate cash flow and share that wealth with stockholders. Shipping rates will probably always be volatile, but operators don't seem to be adding capacity at an irresponsible rate. Accordingly, this might still be a front-line option for investors looking to capitalize on rising global energy demand.

[andrbea] 25/8/2005 08:18

another view on freight rates (see last paragraph)

/...


"However, the company said the high freight rates experienced in the first quarter came down sharply during the second quarter, as it did last year.

The combined effect of commodity destocking in China and seasonality slowdown amplified by temporary easing of supply chain logistics, and the freight market sentiment caused the freight market to haul back, it said.

The Baltic Dry Index dropped from 4,637 to around 3,000 in early June and closed at 2,521 during the quarter.

Jinhui Shipping said the total capacity of the group's fleet is around deadweight 1.6 million metric tons comprising twelve owned vessels and twelve chartered-in vessels, and around 82% of the group's revenue days in 2005 have been covered.

The current demand-supply condition remains tightly balanced in the dry bulk market, it said, where congestion will exaggerate the upward freight trend, and a slack market will amplify the fall.

This, coupled with seasonality of seaborne dry bulk trade causes huge volatility in the dry bulk freight rates, it said.

However, Jinhui Shipping's board continues to believe the long term structural drivers, including the Chinese secular demand for commodities, the continued supply chain issues with long lead times, and shipyards worldwide already operating at full capacity with little incentive to build low margin dry bulk vessels, will lead to a healthy operating environment for its business going forward. "

[rivaldo] 25/8/2005 07:48

Agreed Support999. Only 5 working days to go :0))

BDI up once more, 22 to 2,634.

[support999] 24/8/2005 23:20

Hope to see £10 post results. Should be very good and good looking forward.

[james111] 24/8/2005 18:05

Confirmed results out next wednesday 31st aug. should be good!
james.

[andrbea] 24/8/2005 11:32

Big orders, tight supply boost Asian ship rates

August 24, 2005



Asian shipping rates this week hit their highest level in more than a month, recovering from a two-year low set three weeks ago on large orders and tight availability of vessels in the Pacific market, brokers said."

[andrbea] 24/8/2005 11:30

Barry newsletter (dry bulk, 22.8.05)

extract:

On the other hand, mining companies have posted some very good results, claiming further improvements during the remainder of 2005, which will brighten up their days. The momentum has switched from the transportation branch to the production branch. Expectations for the second half of 2005 are deemed much more favourable, according to various statements in both segments. This is underlined by the current rebound in freight rates.
On the Capesize market, the autumn rebound came earlier than expected and ....

[philo124] 24/8/2005 11:13

Thanks for the posts guys.
Philo

[rivaldo] 24/8/2005 08:00

CKN are on the expansion path and have a cash mountain, so acquisitions are highly likely - but I'd also expect CKN to be the subject of takeover talks itself at some point.

BDI up again, 45 to 2,612.

[andrbea] 23/8/2005 15:12

I heard an analyst say yesterday that freight rates should drop in 2006 but with a gradual rise in 2007 and 2008
and to anticipate that downturn in 2006, tui was acquiring cp ships now (even though the acquisition price is high, at the "top of the cycle") because the savings through a larger company outweigh the other considerations.
why lower freight rates?
well, because of more ships being built than ever before, more than the demand they think - fears of overcapacity in 2006?

maybe those same arguments of sector consolidation to cut costs, improve global reach and improve profits could be applied to the shipbrokers too?
eg clarkson could go after other brokers (Drewry, Braemar, Barry, Galbraith, etc?)

Anyone agree?

[rivaldo] 23/8/2005 08:04

BDI up once more, 89 to 2,567.

[andrbea] 22/8/2005 09:58

yes tks Riv

the graphs (click on the tanker newsletter) (Barry: 19.8.05) confirm the bounce:

[rivaldo] 22/8/2005 09:52

Ta andrbea. The sector is certainly hotting up.

So is the BDI - up 106 to 2,478 on Friday. I notice VLCC rates are up as well per Galbraiths.

[andrbea] 22/8/2005 09:26

more on "CP Ships"

(from money - telegraph)

[support999] 19/8/2005 14:25

James

Thanks for the info. Has gone quiet since earier trades. Yes it would be great.

[grgkecer] 19/8/2005 14:07

BMS is also up 4.8%.

[lauders] 19/8/2005 13:23

Cannot access it from where I am at the moment, but under the news section on the CKN website there is an old comment from one of the directors saying something along the lines of "any talk of a bid is nonsense". So although the rumours may pop-up from time to time, the chances of anything actually happening would appear to be remote IF that comment is anything to go by!

Still looking good now and I wonder whether we will ever breach that 10 pound barrier. Also wondered what the chances of a share split would be if we ever reach that sort of figure?

Cat, are you still following this one and what is your view please?

[james111] 19/8/2005 13:14

Support999. 1st Sept a week on thursday so not long to wait. wouldnt it be nice if we kept moving up at this pace till then!
Guess we can all dream.
Regards James.

[support999] 19/8/2005 12:32

when are the results due?

[james111] 19/8/2005 12:30

shares are held very tightly for bid, ie directors and workers, so if a bid was made it would have to be silly money!
cant see it personally but who cares as long as it pushes us northwards.
The share on its own (forget about bids)warrants over £10. Maybe after results we will get the re rating this share deserves.
regards james.