Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[philo124] 20/5/2005 15:16

Evo Broker price target 1450p issued in March
Philo

[doubleorquits] 20/5/2005 15:08

The BMS statement interested me because of its references to the whole picture as well (obviously) as a company update.

"'The shipping market has continued strongly during our first fiscal quarter."

Add that to Clarkson's own reference to freight rates in their own results in March:

'2005 has started well. Freight rates remain significantly above long-term
averages with Chinese growth continuing to be a major driver.

It would appear to me that in spite of the falling BDI (although the dollar is beginning to strengthen ) the outlook from BMS and CKN covers the first five months of the year - and more importantly the first five months of CKN's financial year. Whether the AGM chooses to embellish any details about current performance or not (it did last year), I feel confident that CKN has to be in line with expectations at the very least. And there is always the chance that they come out and say they are "significantly ahead". Now that would be nice!

[philo124] 20/5/2005 13:59

I have bought this & BMS today; both undervalued,
Philo

[justjules] 20/5/2005 10:35

also 16p divi june1

[doubleorquits] 20/5/2005 10:33

LOL - it seems some are getting back on board. Must be an AGM coming up ;0) and BMS update has no doubt given a bit of confidence. At least I managed to grab a few more than 300 this morning!

[andrbea] 20/5/2005 10:29

this is a piece calling for higher freight rates (it's only a small company, but its arguments hold water IMO):

"The shipping industry world-wide is facing cost pressure due to the significant growth in world trade with the cost of ships up dramatically. BCL said that a replacement ship for the 2004 dry-docking cost nearly three times the one for the 2002 dry-docking. The cost of repairing and maintaining the 15-year-old Oleander is surging as is the cost to eventually replace her with a new ship. At the same time, new container and other cargo handling equipment costs have increased upwards of 20 percent in the last 18 months on high demand and significant increases in the price of raw materials such as steel.
BCL said that the growth in world-wide trade is also having a negative impact on shore side operations. Volume growth at all major container ports in North America last year exceeded 10 percent and is expected to see significant growth again this year. BCL noted that port congestion around the world is also driving up costs significantly. Given trends elsewhere, it expects stevedoring and cargo handling costs to increase at a greater rate than the rate of inflation.
"The inescapable conclusion is that freight rates will have to increase at a much higher rate over the next few years than they have over the past 19."

[cockneyrebel] 20/5/2005 08:31

Can't even get 300 online, mm's moving up on buys of just 500 - stock must be tight.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 20/5/2005 08:31

Can't even get 300 online, mm's moving up on buys of just 500 - stock must be tight.

CR

[yogi] 20/5/2005 08:27

I have fired of a note to TD Waterhouse to confirm the date of the note. I've double checked and it is certainly the 16th of May. Up to that point the 16th March note had been included from Evolution and I do keep a close eye on this one.

Rivaldo,
The BMS comment that "The shipping market has continued strongly during our first fiscal quarter" which I took to be March to May 05 was the bit I latched onto. As stated above CKN's AGM statement on 25th will tell the story one way or the other.

[andrbea] 20/5/2005 08:11

growth in inbound container traffic at west coast ports (Seattle and LA):

"The 6100ha Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex has 150 giant cranes and 61 cargo terminals spread along 92km of waterfront.

It receives about 45 per cent of all containers shipped to the US and one-third by value.

Shipping volume will rise 13 per cent to 14.9 million containers this year. That growth of 1.7 million containers is more than the entire 2004 capacity of all but six other US ports. "

[james111] 20/5/2005 08:09

Me to.I have come back in got out in march at just under 9.5, will give it another run, just sh*t scarred of it having another breakout while I am not holding, That has happened to me to often.
regards James.

[rivaldo] 20/5/2005 08:07

Not on the EVO site yet Yogi. Seems like the BMS results woke some people up, I'm not buying yet though - the results are historic, and the fact is that rates are declining fast, with the BDI down another 78 to 3,559 yesterday.

So £10 today then?!

[taylor20] 20/5/2005 08:06

Must be a typo, last Evo note was on the 16th March - as shown on the CKN website.

Chart looks interesting.

[yogi] 20/5/2005 07:58

Evolution have a new buy note issued on the 16th May. I have seen it referenced on TD Waterhouse's website but have yet to see the note itself. Assumably this was also as a result of the BMS results.

[nirvs] 19/5/2005 12:47

Yogi - agreed. Just bought back in on the tick up on the bid.

[yogi] 19/5/2005 12:44

Well I feel as if i'm messing a bit with this one but I bought back in yesterday first thing after seeing the BMS results and outlook statement. Furthermore, the Clarkson AGM is on the 25th so if there is a positive statement at that poing then I think it may break out of the down trend. A bit of a risk but when I sold several weeks ago I thought it would go lower but there has been good support at the 8.50 mark. As such I don't think I'm going to get them much cheaper and do believe that this and next year should remain stable in shipping terms so back in I jumped.

Yogi.

[andrbea] 19/5/2005 12:26

CIF and Clearnet

Philippe van den Abeele, Managing Director at Clarkson Securities Ltd, said : "I am delighted that LCH.Clearnet is providing a competitive freight derivatives clearing service. The FFA market will now be taken seriously by a much wider audience, as counterparty risk will be managed by one of the world's strongest clearing institutions."

The clearing service will cover 5 wet (crude and refined products) routes and 7 dry (dry bulk commodities) routes in this thriving market, which allows charterers and shippers to hedge their shipping exposure and provides substantial arbitrage opportunities to its financial institution and trading company participants. It will be open to the entire FFA market, by allowing OTC brokered or bilaterally executed trades to be registered directly with LCH.Clearnet for clearing.

The launch of the OTC clearing service will also complement the prospective launch of an FFA online trading platform, to be called C.I.F., jointly owned by Clarksons Securities Ltd, Ifchor SA, and Freight Investor Services Ltd. These will together provide the market with an unique opportunity both to improve transparency and increase liquidity, as existing counterparty credit issues are removed and participation in the market is facilitated."

[rivaldo] 19/5/2005 09:31

Which way will it go? Intriguing stuff. The BDI was down a decent amount again yesterday, 58 points to 3,637. Too soon for me to get back in.

[andrbea] 18/5/2005 09:07

For the bulls:
You could argue that coal and iron ore rates are at 6-months low and should bounce some time..
and, more importantly, the container shipping sector is doing well (China) and LNG


"
containers:

Dubai Ports Authority (DPA), one of the world's fastest growing ports, announced a 26 per cent growth in containers handled during the first quarter of 2005, compared to the corresponding period in 2004. This growth in throughput is in line with DPA's 25 per cent year-on-year growth in volumes, which has been substantiated by the completion of the first phase expansion at Jebel Ali Port. "

[rivaldo] 18/5/2005 08:44

Yep, BMS had excellent results - as expected since of course they're based on historic shipping rates. The outlook was positive, but if you read the narrative you could see signs of less certainty over the future.

The BDI is down again to 3,695, VLCC rates continue to decline and Galbraiths' reports are mixed and uncertain. I'd love to get back in to CKN, but imo the risk of another decline remains too high at present for me.

[deadly] 17/5/2005 23:26

Excellent results from BMS today, and strong rise in the share price Bodes well for CKN but surprisingly little reaction here so far.

[andrbea] 17/5/2005 08:03

The Baltic Dry Index has slumped about 40 percent from a record high of 6208 on Dec. 6. The index fell 17 percent in April, the biggest monthly drop in four months. "

[andrbea] 17/5/2005 08:01

"P&O Nedlloyd, the world's fourth-largest provider of container shipping services by fleet capacity, operates a 156 container ships and 428,000 containers.

"The container industry is booming at the moment. We see gigantic growth in Asia, specifically in China," P&O Nedlloyd's executive board member Rutger van Slobbe told Dutch television."

May 17