Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[andrbea] 30/6/2005 13:29

"Projections by Clarkson and Drewery are widely tracked by shipping industry members and analysts.

In a note sent to its clients last week, UBS cited the projections by those two services and said it expects container volumes would continue to absorb capacity growth this year and most of the added capacity next year.

The Swiss firm said "this is the time to be accumulating," exposure in the shipping sector, adding that the shares are likely to rally over the next three to six months. "

[andrbea] 30/6/2005 13:27

clarkson gets richer as the BDI goes up (like last year)
but this year..

well, read this article (below) and you can see that clarkson wins too from freight rates that fluctuate wildly per month or per year. Reason: FFA

"Contracts, known as Forward Freight Agreements, or FFAs, are tied to the cost of hauling commodities including coal and grains. The market almost tripled in value to $30 billion last year and may grow by a fifth in 2005, the London-based Forward Freight Agreement Brokers' Association estimated. "



"June 8 (Bloomberg) -- ABN Amro Holding NV, the biggest Dutch lender, and JPMorgan Chase & Co., the No. 3 U.S. bank, plan to enter the $36 billion shipping futures market to benefit from widening price swings.

Freight rates on the benchmark Middle East-to-Asia route for 2 million-barrel oil tankers have fluctuated from their average price almost three times as much as oil prices in New York in the six months through May, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The changes spurred companies from utilities to refiners to lock in transport costs or bet on future swings.

Shipping rates have ``volatility undreamed of in the equity or bond markets,'' Basil Mavroleon, managing director of Charles R. Weber Inc., a Greenwich, Connecticut-based shipbroker, said at a conference in Oslo yesterday."

[philo124] 30/6/2005 10:55

Hi, i am holing both & agree with you. But heard on Bloomberg Asia of
excess capacity expected next year-A stock was floated today & was down 10%
on its issue price. However CKN/BMS rating very modest.
Philo

[rivaldo] 30/6/2005 10:49

Excellent trading update from BMS yesterday - maybe the reason for the climb yesterday and today? Apart from CKN being cheap that is...

Most important is this excerpt:

"In recent weeks there has been a significant drop in freight rates across both
the wet and the dry markets. It is too early to make an assessment of whether
this is indicative of a fundamental correction, or merely a low point in
shipping markets, which have seen significant volatility over the last few
years. Notwithstanding this change, we believe that the long-term outlook for
shipping remains positive."

Only two months till the interims, which I expect to be good. As one of the few quoted shipbrokers in the world I also expect CKN to be subject to corporate action at some stage.

[ok,yah] 23/6/2005 18:00

Thanks edmundshaw, bought a few as rating still looks undemanding and scope for 50% upside to £12 in next six months...

[edmundshaw] 23/6/2005 11:58

oky,

This has been the biggest shipping boom in living memory, and shipping is cyclical. When rates start to drop, people worry the up part of the big cycle may be over; and some of us have had very large gains to protect and unbalanced portflios to manage.

I have reduced my holding in CKN by 90% between 860 and 950p. I personally shall look to get back in if the price drops significantly from here and/or when the BDI and tanker metrics look more healthy.

In the end, it's up to individual research and opinion...

good luck.

[andrbea] 23/6/2005 11:37

Rates from China to Dubai currently stand at $950-$1,000 per TEU and $1,900 to $2,000 per FEU, while last year the rates in this sector were quoted at $1,100 for 20 feet container and $2,200 for 40 feet box. The sources said the rates are expected to partly recover this year, while a full recovery is expected by the middle of next year or even later.

Cargo volumes moving into the Gulf are strong and the trade seems to be very positive for the months to come. Overall, there is a GDP growth in the Gulf region and the buying capacity of the AGCC countries has grown thanks to high oil prices, they said.
"

[ok,yah] 23/6/2005 11:20

looks tempting at these prices - I believe broker has a £14 price target on these. I cant understand with the low rating and massive growth in profits why these are being sold. Balance sheet decent. Single figure price to earnings ratio and. Profits are expected to grow in both 2005 and 2006. Am I missing something

[yogi] 23/6/2005 09:55

Nice to see the BDI up 1.5% also for a change - has been a fairly steady decrease over recent weeks. Interestingly, the chart is quite similar to that of 2004 which also went to a low of about 2500. May be a good topping up point?

[andrbea] 23/6/2005 08:45

freight rates (dry bulk)

[andrbea] 23/6/2005 08:11

is the worm turning, maybe?

cmb (euronext) ended up yesterday (5.92%)
chart at:



reason:
freight rates have been starting to climb the last few days (eg tankker, suez / Mediterranean) + hopes of a cyclical rebound in the second half.

[rivaldo] 22/6/2005 18:27

Typical. I said CKN could go down to £8 if the BDI fell. It didn't and the AGM was very positive, so I bought back a few. And now look where we are :o((

The comfort today is that volumes are very low, so perhaps the descent isn't very meaningful.

Oh well. I still think CKN is cheap for all the reasons already outlined. It seems that the market is always surprised by CKN's results having forgotten about it, and given that H1 has to have been good due to the £2.5m ship sale profit I think they'll be surprised again.

[shirishg] 22/6/2005 14:37

Post removed by ADVFN

[hawks11] 22/6/2005 14:35

It looks as if August will bring the news for the, hopefully, stready rise upwards again. So I will remein downwind for a month or two yet.

[andrbea] 20/6/2005 13:24

China COSCO Holdings sees its freight rates rising in the next few months
06.19.2005, 09:29 AM

HONG KONG (AFX) - China COSCO Holdings Co Ltd expects its freight rates to rise in the next few months due to strong demand for its shipping services, the company's chairman and chief executive officer Wei Jiafu said."

[rivaldo] 18/6/2005 10:56

Don't watch too long John!

Interesting - CKN has a new substantial (over 3%) shareholder as of yesterday:


"The Company has been notified that Lloyds TSB Group PLC has a notifiable
interest in 742,203 shares, representing 4.352% of the ordinary issued share
capital of the Company.

The shares are held by two Lloyds TSB's group companies:

Lloyds TSB Private Banking 6,343
Scottish Widows Investment Partnership 735,860"

[andrbea] 17/6/2005 15:29

freight rates: a better 2nd half, they say:

"Dry-bulk shipping rates also slumped last year, dropping 54 percent from a peak in January to a six-month low of 2622 points on June 22, as measured by the Baltic Dry Index. Freight rates are set to rebound in the second half, Hammer said.

`Probably Pick up'

``The market will probably pick up sharply,'' Hammer said. ``It's not like China is being turned off. They are taking a breather before hurrying along again,''

About 124 dry-bulk vessels were sent to owners so far this year, Barry Rogliano said. Another 219 vessels are scheduled for delivery during the rest of the year."

[johnrxx99] 15/6/2005 09:18

Thanks for that Rivaldo. For the last few years early August has been the lift off point and from what you say that could be the case this.

Well managed company with a premier postion in its industry with barriers to entry and a forward PER of 8 and PEG of 0.75. In down trend for the mo so I'll watch very closely.

[rivaldo] 14/6/2005 13:52

Personally I think CKN's a bargain at these levels. I'm in in a much smaller way these days, but hopefully for the long term, as CKN's operations are diverse enough to stand a fall in rates and still achieve forecasts, or at the worst decent enough results to make this price seem reasonable value. And remember they still have a big cash pile to use too. Besides, rates will probably recover in the autumn as they usually do.

Plus there's constant takeover rumours to keep the pot boiling. It's ISA-ble too, which is an increasing rarity.

[andrbea] 14/6/2005 13:07

ckn's move to Dubai looks good strategically (the new hub for container traffic)

"Jebel Ali Port has expanded its berthing facilities, with a maximum berth depth of 17 meters. This scale of expansion at the port ensures the efficient handling of a variety of container vessels, arriving from around the world.

MSC Rachele is owned by the Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) that was founded in 1970. MSC is the second largest carrier in the world, operating 261 container vessels with an intake capacity of 695,287 TEUs. The company is expecting to further this growth to 272 vessels and 780,000 TEUs by end of 2005.

Dubai Ports, which includes Port Rashid and Jebel Ali Port was recently ranked among the top 10 container ports of the world, in terms of container traffic, which touched 6.42 million TEUs in 2004. Further, the port also achieved a remarkable growth rate of 25 per cent last year.

'The strategic geographic location of Dubai Ports has enabled it to act as an important maritime link between the Far East and the western countries."

[andrbea] 14/6/2005 11:40

The downturn may have further to go: With such low rates many shippers are pulling their vessels off the market to await an upturn, a move that -- in the short run -- exacerbates the declining day rates."

[andrbea] 14/6/2005 11:39

Ocean-freight rates fall as global demand slows for some commodities - report
06.12.2005, 11:44 PM

/.....

Industry analysts expect shipping rates to recover later this year, but not to the lofty levels seen in 2004, the Journal added

[johnrxx99] 14/6/2005 11:30

Seems to be very quiet here. Any thoughts to be shared about getting back in at about 800p?

[hawks11] 09/6/2005 19:35

Nice one Rivaldo. I should have made something like 30% and more but was messing about with other shares. I am waiting for a nice slow build again and expect to retain a real interest for some time yet.

[rivaldo] 08/6/2005 21:17

Seems to have bounced off the bottom again chart-wise.

From Fundwatch on the Daily Mail web pages:


"FUND managers Stephen Bailey and Jan Luthman have earned a return of more than 30% for investors during the past year.

The pair have shrewdly picked shares to back trends such as globalisation and ageing populations while hunting out stocks best placed to weather a downturn.

Bailey and Luthman are managers of the CF Walker Crips UK Equity Income and CF Walker Crips UK Growth funds."

"Transport is another global issue for Luthman. 'Globalisation has meant that more and more of what we buy is made elsewhere and therefore has to be moved,' he said. The funds therefore back shipping companies Wincanton, Clarkson and Braemar Seascope."