Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[soulsauce] 23/10/2023 09:24

Yes something seems off but will keep an eye on this.
GL all holders.

[johnrxx99] 23/10/2023 09:16

Out last week. Too relentliss for me.

[pughman] 23/10/2023 08:18

Q3 was decent. They are 60% of the way through H2, I'd expect a similar final dividend to the interim, using about 70-75% of FCF. As to the dividend for 24, that decision is 11 months away, who knows what metal prices will be then.

[1knocker] 20/10/2023 18:43

I agree with most of your overview Kael, but would add that (1) if the world falls into recession, that will hit construction and this copper prices and (2) Chinese demand has absorbed a very large proportion of copper production for decades. With the Chinese construction sector deep in the mire that demand is, and will remain for some time, muted. In time, especially if electrification ramps up worldwide I too expect copper to do well, not least because the miners seem to be in no hurry to develop new capacity, but I don't see copper recovering much next year.

I have no crystal ball, but I think CAML probably has a good bit more to fall yet, so I am not topping up at present. Neither am A seller though, as it seems to me to be a good company in a sector which should in time do well.

[kael] 20/10/2023 16:49

Most metals are weak, due to the dollar. Lower demand (more supply and inventory) is due to the strength of the dollar which is a deliberate move to bring inflation under control by killing the demand side of the equation. Short term inventories high, long term there isn't enough to go round.Everything else is really a secondary affect and the main thing worth focusing on for most commodities and especially miners is what's the dollar is doing, and that's the dxy. The fomc is turning dovish in the commentary and a good chance for a floor being put in for metals and a subsequent ceiling for rates as we go into 2024, with inflation and interest rates beginning to come down as economies slow and recession risk elevates. I also expect CAML to do one of two things (or both) reduce dividend and raise the fcf % to allow for a 10-14p full year div for 2024.

[zangdook] 20/10/2023 16:22

If they bought back shares and then used them to pay for part of the cost of acquisition that might work out cheaper than issuing new shares, depending on market movements.

[1knocker] 20/10/2023 16:19

copper price is eak, and copper projected to continue in oversupply next year, while inflation in mining costs continues. I expect a big dividend cut here. i think sometime next year we will be able to but CAML a lot closer to £1 than £1.50.
All IMO.

[mondex] 20/10/2023 14:27

Spookies,

The "cash pile" is reserved for their next acquisition. The share price volatility is temporary. Personally, I would feel happier if they made the acquisition, but they are a well-managed company & I trust them to make the appropriate decision. The commodities market is not in a good place & buy-backs will not change that. Making buy-backs now seems like complete folly to me.

[spookies] 20/10/2023 08:26

Got my divi today, topped up with some more at 154. Looks like a lot of dividend reinvestment going on this morning.

[lauders] 20/10/2023 02:34

At least we get some money in the form of a dividend today, or depending on your broker, next week! The share price performance here has been awful for a while. Let's hope once October is out the way, often been a poor month for share prices, we see a drastic improvement.

[spookies] 19/10/2023 18:19

In todays environment cash is king.

[spoole5] 19/10/2023 15:35

Maybe buyback the shares with the cashpile. No point sitting on it for no reason

[cthompso] 19/10/2023 15:35

There's an argument at least that copper is ready to go back up. This from IG (the copper piece is towards the end):https://youtu.be/LO9Xj6MJcnI?si=GbJ3POJWIlbcwzhb

[2603] 19/10/2023 14:51

Every day it’s down, this is now getting stupid. I hope the company is not hiding anything.

[melton john] 19/10/2023 12:13

@gotabsirius. I was being sarcastic "When copper prices recover again, so will Central Asia Metals" Who knew?

[petenorrislos] 19/10/2023 11:52

information overload Pob, cheers mate

[gotabsirius] 19/10/2023 11:00

What did he say?

[melton john] 19/10/2023 08:35

7 quid a month for gold nuggets of information like that. Amazing.

[pob69] 19/10/2023 07:52

Fair comments from Garry Newman

[erocnelg] 16/10/2023 15:27

I BOUGHT TODAY TOO. DIVIDEND AROUND 12PC !

[pughman] 16/10/2023 12:01

Had a nibble at £1.60. Sentiment is lousy, but I remain a copper bull in the medium/long term.

[kael] 13/10/2023 20:02

All the metals are subject to the dollar, and ultimately caml share price performance. It's unlikely the dollar can remain this strong long term. Key driver is interest rates, which will likely be stuck for a while with sticky inflation. Gobal conflicts are threatening, much like...01/02, the dollar put in a double top and then declined for 2 years. Could well be a similar pattern forming here. A direction of travel resolving conflicts and decreasing interest rates and inflation is the environment all markets want to see right now, but as with most things patience is needed.

[2603] 13/10/2023 19:56

Mmmmmm very pessimistic, I really can’t see this going near £1. If it drops anymore I really can see £1.50 as a bottom. Which will be a fantastic long term buying opportunity.
As for the Div. they always paid a great div even when it had debt. With no debt and make a good profit, albeit not as good as metals are under pressure they will still be around 8-10% yield which is still better than anywhere else. This has to be a good opportunity for caml to grow and buy someone, for me this has already fallen too far and have priced in a big crash, the more people talk about copper down and the share down is when I look to buy.

[1knocker] 13/10/2023 19:01

Be careful. the dividend is going to drop like stone unless mining cost inflation eases and commodity prices rise.

Despite all the green rhetoric, copper is projected to remain in surplus through 2024.The green revolution, which makes huge demands on electrical metals, just ain't happening. There is far more investment going into oil wells than copper mines!The 'renewables' are barely providing for the increase in energy usage, let alone making inroads into the traditional energy sources which provide for current supply.

As I posted a week or two ago, we should have taken advantage of a £2+ share price to sell. Next year is going to be bleak IMO. When the dividend is cut heavily, this will fall like a stone. I am taking advantage of any spike to sell. I confidently expect to be buying back not much above £1.