Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[ntv] 01/10/2021 18:54

but the share price is nowhere near the price it would have been if it had stuck to just copper and not bought Sasa
That is what the problem has been

[hpcg] 01/10/2021 18:47

frazboy - I'm generally much shorter copper itself, though not at this exact moment. Overlay CAML and ANTO on a 1 year basis and they are near enough identical. However at times of dislocation CAML significantly under-performs ANTO and ANTO recovers much faster. I don't think this is that unexpected behaviour for a small cap. So of the two CAML is a better choice. RIO is a closer match but even CAMLs dividend is blown away by the former. I was short RIO as the iron ore price declined and leading into the dividend.

Copper has rebounded today but IMO this just sets up another decent shorting opportunity.

[pughman] 01/10/2021 18:44

March 20 when Copper was $4600 and the possibility of mine closures due to Covid was a testing time. 18 months later CAML is in robust shape, costs are rising, but so they are for most companies. Who knows what Q4 will bring, the risk is part of the buzz, but even in March 2020 when Copper was $4600 a tonne, low cost producer CAML was still making money.

[frazboy] 01/10/2021 17:51

Interesting posts hpcg, agree about your point about finite resource too, missed my some posters here who forget its paying dividends thus rendering historic price comparisons less meaningful.I'm not sure this is the ideal vehicle for shorting - It's debt free and low cost (the copper leaching certainly is) although I take your point about rising input costs (and I did wonder if that was another facet of the RBC reduced PT). It's trading at only 5.5x FCF. For what it's worth I had been holding these and shorting high grade copper on IG.

[lord gnome] 01/10/2021 17:33

If you worry about details like that hpcg, you will make yourself a nervous wreck. Are you sure that this investing is right for you?

[hpcg] 01/10/2021 17:32

Execution is a positive here, as is lack of development risk. Operational gearing is a big mover on the dump recovery and oil prices are going up increasing costs. There could be inflation across all inputs but that is difficult to judge and I think of lower significance than fuel. I guess a shortage of leaching chemicals would be dramatically bad, but I have no idea if that is likely. I guess they come from within Kaz so at a guess a far tail risk. That would show up in the share price right away as soon as anyone got an inkling.

[lord gnome] 01/10/2021 17:29

Thanks for that insight hpcg. Did you bother to read the interim results statement on 15th September? Short away, please do.

"The outlook for the remainder of 2021 is positive for CAML, with strong demand for the metals that we produce, and we are on track to meet our output guidance from Sasa and Kounrad."

[jimmywilson612] 01/10/2021 16:57

Good comment hpcg.

I think its worth saying that I have a very good level of respect for management here at CAML.

I read once that the important thing in mining is the management - as mining is a series of problem solving - and poor management can turn good resources into bad investment, and good management can take average deposits and make money from them.

I also believe management in their acquisition - they've proved they are capable of buying good assets and returning capital to shareholders.

[hpcg] 01/10/2021 14:28

Copper and Zinc can trade much lower if Chinese home construction transitions to a lower plateau. No one really knows if that will happen or not, but it is a risk. Irrespective, a simple buyers strike from importers will achieve the same. Trying to value a company such as CAML is a fools errand and about all one can do is buy when conditions are getting better and sell when they are getting worse. I reckon they are getting worse, and so irrespective of valuation this is a sell. The valuation is pretty irrelevant. Long term holders may feel they can hold through any dip, but that dip could have a long duration. The assets themselves have a finite duration. It is ifs and but has to be in the thinking of potential share buyer.

I'm tentatively short here, but mostly tactically in copper (flat at this time around support). I think the pay off, especially in the metal, is asymmetric with so much money long that would have to be unwound.

[sumday] 01/10/2021 14:05

And sometimes when that irrationality drags on you start to question whether it’s you that is irrational and is there something you’re not seeing which is apparent to everyone else 😁.

[farnesbarnes] 01/10/2021 13:54

The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. - JMK

[coxsmn] 01/10/2021 12:12

The share price can't defy fundamentals forever

[garycook] 01/10/2021 10:39

Copper currently up 1.57%

[zho] 01/10/2021 10:08

HG Copper trades lower for a fourth day as widespread power shortages in China and the debt crisis within the property sector have reduced industrial activity, thereby potentially lowering the demand outlook for copper and other metals such as nickel, tin and zinc....

[robizm] 30/9/2021 12:05

Celiritas that is what I have said

[garycook] 30/9/2021 11:40

ROTA,Wrong XD today.You would have needed to buy CAML before 4.30pm yesterday to qualify for the 8p dividend.Central Asia Metals Price 229p Dividend 8p Divi Impact 3.49% XD Date 30-Sep Payment Date 22-Oct.The share price is down 8p today,because of going XD.

[return_of_the_apeman] 30/9/2021 11:40

Apologies just checked and it is marked x-div today - the way they worded the divi announcement was confusing

[celeritas] 30/9/2021 11:35

No you won't ex-divi is today, you had to be holding yesterday to receive the dividend.

[robizm] 30/9/2021 11:33

The shares trade ex dividend today

[robizm] 30/9/2021 11:33

You would need to hold yesterday not today

[return_of_the_apeman] 30/9/2021 11:20

Hmm, you would still get the divi if you bought today as you would be holding shrs tomorrow when they check the register

[melton john] 30/9/2021 08:22

Caml down 6p. Could it be because you don't get the Divi if you buy today NTV.

[mw16] 30/9/2021 06:41

You would still be better off since you are only taxed on a portion of the income and your capital position will have remained the same.

[melton john] 29/9/2021 23:10

Really, do tell us what you think.

[sumday] 29/9/2021 19:56

@MW16. Say I have capital losses so prefer to take a capital profit tax free rather than be taxed on income?