Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[king_baller] 17/6/2021 15:37

Very oversold. Great buying opp. I hope no PI’s are selling down here. Buy low, sell high remember.

[cthompso] 17/6/2021 11:55

Had a little bite this morning - seems irresistible at these levels.

[qs99] 17/6/2021 09:08

Agree with the yield, economic rebound will help keep copper reasonably high IMO, and if CAML is then yielding anywhere near over 5% income instis may start to take a look as well DYOR

[geckotheglorious] 16/6/2021 11:30

Shield

Disagree.
The commodity prices we are seeing today is because of MMT - way to much printing and debt leading to surging inflation.

The prices of hard assets - Property, Land, Gold/silver, other metals all rising.

Ditto Fine Art. Wines.

And these dodgy NFT thingies.

[shieldbug] 16/6/2021 11:22

Trump's trade war smashed commodity prices. In time though every time you hold back commodities you just store up a bigger problem down the road. Arguably the spike in commodity prices we are seeing today is in part a result to his trade war.

[shieldbug] 16/6/2021 11:19

In the short terms it depends what reserves the Chinese have to sell down. Catch 22 situation if they want to continue growing they'll need the commodities.

[zho] 16/6/2021 10:10

China’s Campaign to Control Commodities Goes Into Overdrive

China has stepped up its campaign to rein in commodity prices and reduce speculation in a bid to ease the threat to its pandemic rebound from soaring raw material costs.

[zho] 16/6/2021 09:10

A bit more than that - from an intraday high of $4.89 on 10/5 to $4.32 now - so 13% or 14%.

[dicktrade] 16/6/2021 09:06

copper price has fallen over 5% recently

[spawny100] 16/6/2021 08:42

What is it with this share? Everything else I hold with resources or metals in the name is going up!

[nickwild] 16/6/2021 08:23

ed $ 0.20 0.23 0.28 0.31 0.29 0.24 +4.0%
EPS Normalised $ 0.20 0.23 0.36 0.31 0.29 0.24 0.44 0.42

[johnrxx99] 16/6/2021 08:19

I'm out. If you look at '21, '22 and '23, very little growth.

My Sharescope consensus shows:-

EPS:-

21 - 45.24
22 - 42.58
23 - 46.22

Yield - decreasing.

Better fish to fry.

[simplemilltownboy] 15/6/2021 16:16

I was a little confused over the yield aswell, However if you look at the wording it shows 2021e which is an estimate of the 2021 FCF. So it's not based on 2020 actual. That's my interpretation, FWIW

[return_of_the_apeman] 15/6/2021 15:53

Think Berenberg have been overly conservative on their forcasting, for example quoting fcf divi payout at 30% is just plain silly following the last payout at 57%

2020 full year dividend of 14 pence per share (2019: 6.5 pence per share)

o Represents 57% of 2020 free cash flow(1) ('FCF')

I have added twice in the last week and another 3000 today, this is imo going to be yielding 10+% this year

3 weeks to H1 reporting, still scratching my head as to why this us not £3.50 yet

[zho] 14/6/2021 17:54

Berenberg comment courtesy of ericeric on the LSE board:

Central Asia Metals (CAML) remains one of our favoured base metals names, with fairly low operational risk, stable operational performance, strong margins (EBITDA: 68%) and FCF (13.5% yield for 2021E). CAML has established a strong track record as a low cost base metals miner delivering consistent FCF generation and dividend payments. CAML is, in our view, one of the cleanest ways to play stronger base metals (in particular Copper). Its revenue mix is 49% copper, 28% lead, 23% Zinc.

Income angle and valuation: The company trades on an attractive 4% dividend yield this year (based on 30% of FCF being paid out). At spot prices the company trades on a 16% FCF yield and c.5% dividend yield. The company is clearly generating a lot of free cash flow and with base metals prices spiking it is arguably the wrong point in the cycle to make acquisitions. Therefore we believe there is a good chance of management ramping up the payout ratio instead of deploying the capital towards M&A. If management were to payout 50% then the dividend yield would increase to 7% and 8% at spot.

[geckotheglorious] 11/6/2021 09:18

Ah vote fraud to the fore again no doubt.

Worrying development for Peru as it's likely to head the way of Venezuela.

[lord gnome] 11/6/2021 07:31

That wouldn't surprise me pughman. They do need another leg to the business and by now they will have fully digested SASA. There are lots of opportunities to replicate the Kounrad operation as well. Look at the deals that JLP have been sewing up. If any fundraising is involved, the share price will take a short term hit.

[pol123] 10/6/2021 20:12

Same, Im well underwater, but not worried as its a long term hold for me. Noticed that volume has been swelling lately, interesting

[jimmywilson612] 10/6/2021 12:09

My Buy at 280 isn't looking the best timing

[pughman] 10/6/2021 10:30

Not much love out there for CAML at the moment. News does tend to leak here, I wonder if a deal is imminent, repeating the SASA model, in size and structure.

[spawny100] 10/6/2021 08:39

Not liking the direction this one is heading at the moment. Will drop out of uptrend and go sub 250 unless it bounces soon.

[podgyted] 09/6/2021 00:22

Bit hyped but interesting.

[zho] 08/6/2021 15:27

John Authers takes a rather more nuanced view:



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Copper boom: how clean energy is driving a commodities supercycle



(Search on headline to access article)