Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[frazboy] 30/6/2021 14:10

Copper, zinc and lead all holding up fine. share price still weak. Perhaps JP Morgan are still offloading

[pughman] 30/6/2021 08:47

Q2 production numbers next week. Some rough back of the envelope guesstimate for H1 prices, including hedges. Copper $8800+ zinc $2800+ lead $2000+. Only negatives I can see are, treatment charges still hitting margins at SASA, but will improve H2 and the dollar/denar rate.

[simplemilltownboy] 30/6/2021 07:55

Thanks, stock is looking low in the charts aswell, so should maybe see stronger pricing in H2

[3noddy] 30/6/2021 07:19

Good to see Lead moving in the right direction.

[3noddy] 29/6/2021 10:55

Chinese still swimming against the tide!

[garycook] 26/6/2021 02:38

Melton John,Your correct.

[melton john] 25/6/2021 18:02

Pretty sure it isn't a market maker share. Algos are driving it according to trade data.

[garycook] 25/6/2021 10:17

coxmn,Ask the Market makers,that question !

[coxsmn] 25/6/2021 09:23

Why are we not above £3 here

[clarea] 22/6/2021 13:23

You are indeed correct Zangdook my bad

[zangdook] 22/6/2021 07:44

gone below 3%, isn't it? That's the minimum threshold for AIM.

[clarea] 21/6/2021 19:57

JPM gone below 5% so hopefully any overhang is now gone, re China by all counts their total reserves are equivalent to one months global needs and many shrewd operators think they would rather accumulate more stock than sell reserves.

Recent strength in the dollar hasn't helped metals.

[pol123] 20/6/2021 10:27

Think is more about the message from China. They are also putting in more local pricing controls. The pullback is just a correction imho triggered by China rhetoric and strong dollar etc. Look beyond these points and we have a baseline story of strong CU demand and dwindling supply. These are the true price drivers that will re assert themselves soon enough

[meanreverter] 19/6/2021 12:51

zho: I agree with your 12m tonne number, and 0.5 mt would last little more than 2 weeks. With shipping time about 35 days from (say) Valparaiso to Shanghai, mine-to-mill times would be be at least 6 weeks. They wouldn't be much different from Peru or the central African producers. Given this kind of timescale, the buffer doesn't look generous.

[3noddy] 19/6/2021 10:21

“Not sure Chinese attempts to depress copper & other commodity prices will really work”
King Canute springs to mind!

[zho] 19/6/2021 10:12

>>Not sure Chinese attempts to depress copper & other commodity prices will really work>>

Me neither. (Search on 'China pledges to release metal reserves to tackle price and shortage fears' to access article) quotes analysts saying that "Beijing could have stockpiled 500,000 tonnes of copper".

That doesn't seem an enormous amount given that "China consumes about 15m tonnes of copper a year" (although I thought China's consumption was more like 12m tonnes p.a.).

[qs99] 19/6/2021 10:02

Not sure Chinese attempts to depress copper & other commodity prices will really work, demand will continue to outstrip supply IMO given the supply side constraints still & massive increase in greener "building back" across the globe DYOR

[pol123] 17/6/2021 21:13

Yep, no rush to buy something. The supercycle was short lived based on todays commodity action....lol

May pick up more tomorrow if caml remains weak

[frazboy] 17/6/2021 16:10

"I have a conservative 7p interim and 9p final, yielding 7%. With net debt for H1 21 circa $15m"

Could be. If they're aiming at 30% to 50% of FCF, then I've got the dividend at around that level, maybe a bit lower (5-6p) as Capex on Sasa will be around $11m this half. Agree on the net debt calcs. Hope you're right on not buying anything right now, no need for corporate activity at this time.

[pughman] 17/6/2021 16:04

I have a conservative 7p interim and 9p final, yielding 7%. With net debt for H1 21 circa $15m there is not a lot wrong here. The last I heard on acquisitions was CAML being quoted copper supercycle prices, which was tampering any purchase chances.

[frazboy] 17/6/2021 15:43

Yep, copper, lead, zinc still comfortably above the price at the start of the year but the share price is roughly the same despite the benefit of higher prices for 6 months.

Looking a little oversold, I don't think long term demand for copper has changed much in the last few days, even if some speculative froth is being blown off.