Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[frazboy] 29/9/2021 08:32

ex-div tomorrow.

Out of interest, any other folk found that the BB search function is no longer working on there desktop? (I can't find this CAML thread when I do a search)

[zho] 28/9/2021 15:47

I've just been wading through one of GoRozen's quarterly reports, the first 10 pages of which discuss the dynamics of the copper market. Much of it will be familiar – slowly rising consumption, steadily falling head grades, the lack of investment in new capacity over recent years – but they also point out that “Between 2001 and 2014 the companies in our index replaced nearly 300% of their production with new gross reserves”.

How come? GoRozen explain that because the price of copper has risen so much (it was under $1/lb 20 years ago) that companies can now add low quality reserves which wouldn't previously have been profitable.

[return_of_the_apeman] 28/9/2021 15:15

Thursday this week before 4:30pm is the last chance to buy to get the divi. Anyone not holdibg shrs directly before the market opens on Friday morning won't get it

[zho] 28/9/2021 14:51

Nigel Robinson is presenting on Thursday 7th October:

[zho] 24/9/2021 11:41

VSA Capital: "We reiterate our Buy recommendation and target price of 325p which implies 41% upside and 47% total return"

[mount teide] 23/9/2021 15:25

We've never had natural resource company valuations relative to the S&P 500 lower than they are today since 1970.

The only other times the stock market has got close to this relative valuation level before was in 1929 and 1999. Stock market history shows these three time periods were exceptional - once in a generation opportunities - to be natural resource investors.

As sentiment changes, relative outperformance is all but assured over many years if the sector fundamentals and past performance in these long term highly cyclical markets is a reliable guide.

What will be the trigger? Probably, it will come from the increasing realisation that current (and 2-3 year) oil and industrial metal market dynamics are very much tighter than most market participants want to believe.

History has repeatedly shown that post recession recovery stages in these highly cyclical long term markets rarely respect wider global economic recessions/softening growth - often posting spectacular gains during global downturns as in 2000-2006, which saw many of the participants of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index up circa 400%-800%, while the S&P 500 was still in correction territory some 20% down in 2006, after hitting 50% down in 2003.

Currently, oil and industrial metal equity market dynamics are signalling a set up today similar to 2001/2 - which heralded a long period of very strong relative outperformance to the wider equity markets during the half decade ahead.

Ignore the pricing power of long term, highly cyclical, covid recession ravaged oil and industrial metal markets at your investment return peril!


AIMHO/DYOR

[pol123] 20/9/2021 16:51

BubblingUp - old news there mate. The current impact is strengthening dollar and growth concerns. As is normal, the eb and flow of commodities

[bubblingup] 20/9/2021 15:10

"Expect the miners to be hit early after Chinese premier Li Keqiang said he would use “market tools” to stabilise commodity prices.

“I am assuming that means releasing more commodities onto domestic markets from China’s strategic reserves,” said Jeffrey Halley, analyst at OANDA."

[pol123] 17/9/2021 17:51

Fundamentally different metals for different applications. Maybe some light headwinds but I dont expect anything like the sell off for iron ore. Not forgetting we produce (if memory serves me)~50 cent per 1lb copper and ~70 cents for lead/zinc. Even if prices drop by 50% we would still produce profitably. In fact when we have no dept, you could say very profitably.

Not forgetting at some point we should welcome softer prices as this opens up attractive purchase/ JV opportunities. Thats the standard ebb and flow of the commodities market

[celeritas] 17/9/2021 14:24

Zinc is flying $3125
Copper is $9450

[shieldbug] 17/9/2021 14:15

Price action may be in response to iron ore price crash. Maybe they think copper, zinc, lead will follow.

[pol123] 17/9/2021 13:45

CAML should also be able to maintain a big divi with metal prices being substantially lower than they are todays

If you did the feedback questionnaire after the presentation, one of the questions was do you think CAML is undervalued. Read into that what you will, no deal in sight a limited buyback could work out. Enhance EPS and give higher share price for future deal etc etc

[qs99] 17/9/2021 10:11

Agreed, CAML need to start hoovering up their shares at this price IMO. Crazy price action, do MMs think Copper price is due a crash or something? DYOR

[shieldbug] 17/9/2021 08:58

At some point next year the debt will be paid off. At that point the £38m annual debt repayment will mount up on the balance sheet. Buy backs might well be considered.

[ntv] 17/9/2021 07:10

It works on smaller companies depending % bought back
It certainly pushed the share price up in PHSC from its lows

[encoma16] 16/9/2021 21:50

Buying in shares for the major companies does nothing for shareholders. RDSB, of which I’ve been a shareholder for many a day, were buying in their shares at £28 not too long ago. Complete madness and did nothing for shareholders. But buying back in at £14.60 makes total sense. Am quite sure their trading company are keeping the share price down at the moment as the price of oil and especially the rising price of gas should indicate a rising share price. But for a smaller company like cash rich CAML it makes perfect sense.

[encoma16] 16/9/2021 21:31

Couldn’t agree more.

[ntv] 16/9/2021 19:06

I think they ought to start buying in the shares for cancellation or to hold in treasury
It is better for all shareholders and saves some money on dividends

[mw16] 16/9/2021 17:11

Remind why British investors are so thick?Oh yes, the price action of caml!If this was a US firm we would be many multiples of of this SP

[qs99] 16/9/2021 16:15

Odd sell off IMO

[coxsmn] 16/9/2021 15:52

Silly season

[ntv] 16/9/2021 15:02

added today @241, that looks like a mistake again

[qs99] 16/9/2021 11:48

Thanks MJ, need my eyes tested, and for kenmitch thanks I understand how it works, just couldn't find the dates as was reading too fast!!

Thanks again and good days all
Cheers
QS99

[return_of_the_apeman] 16/9/2021 10:43

In 4 years this will approx. double your investment on a total returns basis if metal prices stay around these levels

Bring on my divi, 2 weeks to go

[luffness] 15/9/2021 20:19

Yes it is confusing - the dividend is paid to those on the share register on the record date which may or may not be the day after the ex-div..