Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[edjge2] 09/10/2018 13:48

Been pretty reliable until now. At 89p it can only go one way substantively IMO

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/10/2018 13:42

Hugely oversold IMO from 160p down from 120p and then 85p on revised production and grades.., so I started accumulating, and again this morning at 89p..

We know Q3 production numbers are down but this should be now built into the share price at this level, we also know that we are through the low grade ore and into the normal Sulphide ore for Q4, I can see the share price back at c125p by Xmas/Jan as the improved Q4 numbers are released and filter through, then back to 150P for Q1/2-2019..

It was poor form for the management to not know or advise of the poor grades coming when the FY2018 guidance was released in the FY2017 report, but it is what it is and hopefully we are into 3 or 4 years of sustainable numbers and recovery..

[cinquepercento] 09/10/2018 13:06

Charles Clore: Re: 5% Ha,ha,ha :-)
Yes,I will have to change my user name to Cinquantatreipercento (33%)

[charles clore] 09/10/2018 13:03

That's much better than 5%!

[cinquepercento] 09/10/2018 12:58

Edjge2 :Thanks for your thoughts re:we have tested support now at around 89 pence and it has held so far.
I see what you mean re:the W forming. We seem to be in agreement on that and that things should pick up at the end of this month, but I will not be waiting for 150 to 180, unless it sneaks up on me. :-)

Casual47: I tend to agree with you re:120 being reached fairly easily and that would make the short term resistance parallel with the short term support so I may well take my profits at this point which would give me 33% roughly as my break even is around 90 pence only.

That will be enough for me.

[casual47] 09/10/2018 12:44

When Goldman Sachs downgraded Centamin in May they gave as main reasons that they expected this would delay the bringing into production of Cleopatra (which they had expected for 2019) but also they expected the problems to also continue to impact into 2019.

I personally didn't believe it but the q3 update means that confidence on this will require demonstrable results and for that we need to wait for the q4 results and probably even q1 2019.

[charles clore] 09/10/2018 12:28

Judging by the precious metals spot prices compared to the share price action I am seeing mining investors don't appear to believe what their masters in the CME are telling them! Could we be witnessing a deep divide or a new paradigm of valuation for the metals?

[casual47] 09/10/2018 12:15

Why would it double by Christmas? That makes no sense whatsoever. Ridiculous ramping is not going to help anyone.

The setback in output will now likely reduce the final dividend to around 2.5 cents, maybe they can add more if they are willing to reduce their cash position (about 2 cents could be added on top). This means the yield will be about half what was expected.

What's reasonable is a recovery to the 120s though some confidence needs to return. Hopefully the resource and reserve update will help with this.

The gold price going above $1300/oz will help it move back to 150p. A guidance of 580k oz for 2019 with results delivered in q1 that demonstrate this should also support an share price of 150p upwards even at gold prices of 1200$/oz.

[edjge2] 09/10/2018 11:55

Maybe now Blackrock took a few CEY may perk up. An utterly stupid valuation here had a few higher but bought a good few at these levels to dilute. As other posters pointed out they will now mine their gold after it has turned north. Expect this to double by Christmas unless middle east conflict scares it.
Second visit to 89p odd draws a nice recovery W on the chart.

[edjge2] 09/10/2018 11:43

yes fully agree Cinquepercento likely their updates happen late october and you never know may be gold has turned by then. Blackrock did buy a few from RNS.

[cinquepercento] 09/10/2018 08:38

I bought just bought a few more at around 90 pence,as despite the scary chart,it has recovered twice now from around 88 pence so it may have bottomed out.
Gold normally picks up at the end of October if I remember correctly.

Worth a gamble. :-)

[wallywoo] 09/10/2018 08:24

kenny: IMO the trouble with mining stocks is that they can hit all sorts of problems when it comes to production. This is especially true of stocks that only have 1 large mine. The stock market reactions to mining production problems is often brutal, and those stocks nearly always come back strongly. Less production this year means less revenue, profit and cashflow, but it also means the ore is still in the ground waiting to be mined the next. Remember:

1) all infrastructure is there
2) Lots of reserves are ther
3) they just need to mine them

Also looking forward to the Burkina Faso / Côte d’Ivoire mine getting approval, and starting construction. That news can't be long coming, along with a full business plan

[cinquepercento] 09/10/2018 08:21

If I am interpreting the latest RNS,correctly, Black Rock just bought more Centamin.

[kennyp52] 08/10/2018 21:47

PE ratio hugely distorted by last year’s results . Probably going to be 40% off this year when full year results come in so dividend will probably be pegged . So it is all about future results and whether shareholders trust this was just a “blip” in production and not a regular feature . If so , and this is just my opinion , then the company can make strong future returns which makes this price attractive .

[lodgeview] 08/10/2018 18:48

PE of 8 and PEG of 0.6. These opportunities don't come round too often!

[kennyp52] 08/10/2018 18:27

Spacedust ... name and shame the “shameful̶1; ?

[creditcrunchies] 08/10/2018 18:26

I reckon the best indicator for gold is the HUI index that needs to rally first then spot gold usually follows

[juju44] 08/10/2018 17:47

The prognosis for the metals is crucial but if the banksters want to take them up then we have seen the bottom here . For anyone with patience this price has to be a bargain

[spacedust] 08/10/2018 17:46

Spike day tomorrow as black rock taking advantage of Cey early Xmas sale

[spacedust] 08/10/2018 17:45

Just like I said on Friday

spacedust - 05 Oct 2018 - 09:33:11 - 28078 of 28200Agree 105p.

Black rock increase from 14% to 15.5%
Then back to 15%

Maybe
they knew something hence reduced fairly quickly having increased days before. The same blackrock will now be adding.

[spacedust] 08/10/2018 17:44

Black rock adding

[casual47] 08/10/2018 16:54

Unbelievable hot and cold blown over on the LSE CEY board. The same posters, sometimes within hours, contradicting their earlier posts, all depending on whether they have bought back in or not. Shameful.

[kennyp52] 08/10/2018 16:28

increases holding by 50% to drag my weighted average price down . Hold now and see what happens . Looks very cheap at 90p

[wallywoo] 08/10/2018 15:44

just picked up a fair few more and just under 90p. IMO this is one of those scenarios where you look back in 6 -12 mths and go "I wish I had bgt them at that price"!!

[stevedaytrader] 08/10/2018 15:38

Agree Casual47 a complete bargain