Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[charles clore] 27/9/2018 16:18

Shoulder nicely formed...

[phillis] 27/9/2018 15:52

mattboxy
someone who turned out to be an employee mentioned "one or two continuing problems"
make of it what you will

[manics] 27/9/2018 07:16

..and for those with preference to surety:

09 OCT 2018
Q3 2018 Preliminary Production Results

01 NOV 2018
Results for the quarter ended 30 September 2018

[mattboxy] 26/9/2018 22:10

Phillis, care to expand or are you short and hoping for panic and a rush for the door

[casual47] 26/9/2018 21:30

Phillis, q3 will probably be disappointing AISC-wise, but that is as expected following the production issues. Output-wise the weekly gold dore shipments as reported in the Egyptian press support production of around 135-140k which is good news because it gets us to the guidance of 505k, which is the absolute minimum that the BOD must deliver to make sure trust is not further eroded.

I cannot see any reason why the market would react negatively to the q3 production or financials.

I think everything will be within expectation.

The only thing that can give cause for a good positive boost would be any news on higher grades as these will be indicative for the next four years.

[phillis] 26/9/2018 21:25

I believe Q3 will be a disappointment
A little bird gave an inadvertent whisper

[casual47] 26/9/2018 21:24

It wouldn't be out of the realms of possibility to assume that q4 will perform as expected under the original 580k guidance. If we make that assumption and take into account that H2 is often better than H1 with q3 and q4 about similar, and if we take the same ratio as in 2017: H2 = 1.33 x H1 then you arrive at a potential gold production in q4 of:

(580,000 : 2.33) x 1.33 : 2 = 165,536 oz

Together with my earlier calculation for q3 and the production for h1 we arrive at annual production of:

522,536

That would give us a 10+ cent total divi for sure.....

[casual47] 26/9/2018 20:56

Yes, my calculation used a purity of 88%. (I recall Siko or someone else over on LSE saying that Centamin's dore is quite pure and closer to 90%)

[jfishy55] 26/9/2018 20:54

When using the shipment amounts bear in mind that the gold shipped is dore - not 100% au.

[mattboxy] 26/9/2018 17:20

Last year..........Q3 2017 Preliminary Production Results Centamin is pleased to announce preliminary production results for the quarter ended 30 September 2017 from its Sukari Gold Mine ("Sukari") in Egypt. Record total gold production for the quarter of 156,533 ounces, a 26% increase on the previous quarter and 5% higher than Q3 2016, the previous record quarter for Sukari.

[casual47] 26/9/2018 16:24

Based on the above, and assuming 88% of each kg shipped is turned into gold, then q3 should deliver around/just shy of 140k ounces. (I assumed 13 weekly shipments in q3 of 382kg average each and then deducted 100kg to make up for the 282kg shipment of 17th July)

That would mean to get to the minimum guidance of 505k oz q4 needs to deliver about 150k oz, which seems doable (last year they did 154,298 oz in q4 2017)

[casual47] 26/9/2018 15:52

This is what I have managed to find of shipment news from July onward, bearing in mind I don't speak arabic (but am reasonably good at googling). The dates are the date from the article I found it in, so may be a day or so after the actual shipment. This list is for sure not complete - we can assume that a shipment has gone out every week, and probably of the order of 380-odd kg.

25 September - 384 kg
24 August - 385 kg
13 August - 385 kg
24 July - 382 kg
17 July - 282 kg
9 July - 385 kg
3 July - 382 kg

[casual47] 26/9/2018 15:14

Shipment yesterday of 384kg gold

An emergency at Cairo airport to secure the travel of a shipment of gold coming from the mine diabetes
Tuesday 25 September / 2018 - 12:35 p
Cairo Airport Cairo Airport Mahrous Hindawi
Cairo International Airport authorities, in cooperation with the authorities of the village of goods, announced Monday evening the state of emergency to secure the arrival and travel of a shipment of gold coming from the sugar mine on its way to Canada to be purified and sold on the international stock exchanges.

Security sources at Cairo airport said that the shipment of gold arrived at Cairo airport on a private plane coming from Marsa Matrouh Airport with a total of 384 kilograms of raw gold in 23 parcels. The shipment was unloaded in the presence of a representative of the stamp authority and the scales to be purified and sold on international stock exchanges.

[spacedust] 26/9/2018 11:29

Think it's going to finish blue. Shook few weak holders.

[charles clore] 26/9/2018 09:48

Where's juju? He will tell us where its going.

[fangorn2] 26/9/2018 09:46

Gold Is Cheap. Inflation Is Coming. You Do the Math



Compared with stocks and other financial assets, gold looks inexpensive. More important, inflation is starting to pick up in the U.S. and in much of the world as central banks shrink their enormous balance sheets. And gold has represented a good defense against inflation eroding the value of a stock or bond portfolio. Over time, it has held its value against the dollar. Gold was $20.67 an ounce 100 years ago and that bought a good men’s suit. At $1,200 an ounce, the same is true today.

“Gold is rare, and it’s hard to rapidly increase the supply of it,” says Keith Trauner, co-portfolio manager of the GoodHaven (ticker: GOODX) mutual fund, which holds Barrick Gold(ABX), a leading mining company. “People have historically viewed it as a hedge against government depreciation of local currency.”

There are an estimated six billion ounces of gold in the world, worth more than $7 trillion, about 30% of the value of the S&P 500. Annual new mined supply adds less than 2% to the global total.

“Virtually every government in the world is trying to promote inflation partly because there is so much sovereign debt,” Trauner says. When there is so much debt, he contends, governments have three choices: default, restructure, or inflate the currency. “Politicians, when given the chance, will choose the latter.”

Naysayers point to higher interest rates as a negative for gold because it increases the allure of holding cash. But gold had one of its best decades during the inflationary 1970s, when rates soared.


Eoin Treacy's view
Whereto for precious metals? A big decline has taken gold back to the $1200 level from it’s January peak of $1366 and sentiment is torn between those hungry for bargains and those worried about the trajectory of interest rates and the strength of the Dollar.

[terry barnett] 26/9/2018 09:29

Looking to maybe form an inverted head and shoulders!

[manics] 26/9/2018 09:24

1corrado wants to rebuy at "below 104p". If the market gives him that, his management of the position was correct. If CEY arrives at +109p before so -then the trade is discredited.

[jimbowen30] 26/9/2018 08:34

1corrado - yes on a one day view you were right. Some of us have been invested here for other ten years, so not really bothered whether CEY is 100p or 110p next week. My long term target is 500p.

[1corrado] 26/9/2018 08:05

I was right to sell my position.

[1corrado] 26/9/2018 07:27

ken tennis may be will be buying back below 104 again but good like to all.

[ken tennis] 26/9/2018 06:44

Corrado i really think CEY are just starting their move on the way up and in my opinion will be back to around 140 to 150 by February next year and collect the divi in March.
I will then reassess my position.
ATB Ken