Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[zangdook] 06/10/2018 12:29

If he's giving a presentation he can only repeat the guidance that is in the public domain at that point. Either that or put out an RNS before they're ready, just because they're going to do a presentation somewhere. It's a difficult position to be in but I think it's perfectly understandable that they decided to present the company on the basis of public information.

[bookwormrobert] 06/10/2018 12:25

Hi Casual47!
I really don't think you can claim Centamin's CEO Andrew Pardey didn't intentionally mislead the markets - just look at the Denver presentation only two weeks ago. His credibility is now shot to pieces!
I'm afraid management here are now very much part of the problem. Hopefully, the institutional investors will force through some very necessary board changes. You can't blame the rocks for equipment breakdowns (without spares) and failure to grade control drill adequately!

[casual47] 06/10/2018 12:13

The conservative approach is all about avoiding unexpected higher dilution from the stopes and this bears out into the much higher grades achieved in September for the underground operation: at start of q3 grades were at 4.2 g/t while at end of September grades are at 7.4 g/t.

[casual47] 06/10/2018 11:59

Interesting from the conf call: there are no remaining technical issues with hardware etc. The second revised guidance and any snags that still need sorting are 100% to do with geology re. higher than expected dilution from the cascading stopes in the underground mine and a decision by management to take the most conservative approach to work through these.

The soon to be released updated resource statement and revised reserve model will be part of the solution and will further refine the best approach going forward.

Perhaps PIs should ease a little on all the non-expert assumptions and conspiratorial accusations flying around regarding e.g. the BOD intentionally misleading shareholders or withholding guidance until last minute. Personally I don't blame the BOD for restricting calls to institutions rather than open up to everyone and their tinfoil hat.

The conf call audio:

[spacedust] 05/10/2018 23:21

Apologies for typo

[casual47] 05/10/2018 23:17

If all goes as planned and Centamin produce 580,000oz next year then gold can drop down to $1050/oz and Centamin will still make a profit and will still pay a divi of at least 3.5% based on current shareprice AND will still have more than $250m cash in the bank.

[spacedust] 05/10/2018 23:11

Credit you are spot on 28133

This is exactly what happened in 2009. Rates nose d8ved dollar sank gold screamed up. Same will happen in 2019 a decade on.

[spangle93] 05/10/2018 22:26

Over the last 80 posts or so today, which I've just caught up on, a number of people have mentioned the attractiveness of the high dividend. Do you think part of the reason the share price got hammered is due to the potential risk, with lower production and gold price uncertainty, that this distribution may be reduced?

Otherwise, if you have a long investment window, this is the opportunity to buy an undervalued company producing something that will always be in demand, with high yield.

[edjge2] 05/10/2018 22:18

Adder out twice today here. Just keep addig if the stinking sinking repeats.

[creditcrunchies] 05/10/2018 21:57

You can't be sure of that there will be some volatility here until Gold puts in a bottom and you've got an ex-div date of middle March 2019. So we've got dangerous October and the December rise then the January big dipper to come. When there is fear there is the US Dollar or the Swiss Franc, when the US Dollar slides you've got Gold. I personally reckon gold is close but don't be surprised to see an exhaustion low and a huge bounce. This is my opinion just accumulate the dips where you get value during these testing times is my honest opinion. If gold gets going it rallies for years but there are many false dawns.

[beeezzz] 05/10/2018 21:28

Slightly concerning regarding drop today, are we now past the worst, is all the bad news out now..

[creditcrunchies] 05/10/2018 20:38

that's quite interesting what you said Kenny. It kind of fits in with how commodity businesses work get the low grade out stuff out of the way whilst prices are low, stock pile the quality then feed into the market when the commodity is in demand. It's pretty similar to restricting supply into the market or stock piling they all do it in some form.

Just checking the charts when they had lows in revenue way back into 2014-2016 stock price was around 60p so bear that in mind, it's worth nibbling the dips

[creditcrunchies] 05/10/2018 20:26

The risk in all of this is the gold price and whether the life of the mine is actually 20 years. If the Fed are increasing rates due to inflation then gold prices will stabilise in fact the Fed will keep on going until the consumer feels pain then will have to reverse (because they over shoot every time) that's when you get a debt crisis and a USD crisis that is when gold grows wings. Not many want to hold gold when you can get yield from other safe havens so when safety is more important than yield that's the decider on gold and the money flow changes. That's the way I see it. I don't see much growth in the equity markets I see yield on defensive stocks and gold / silver at major lows

[casual47] 05/10/2018 20:08

The resource update and corresponding new reserve model will be released end of the year (will also include Cleopatra). It will be accompanied by the guidance for 2019.

September's output of 48,511oz should be more representative of what is "normal" going forward.

[kennyp52] 05/10/2018 18:33

So the share prices drops like a stone based on lower production figures . Having listened to the “phone in” which is available of the company website under media ... the excuse is they concentrated effort on clearing up lower grade ore so as not to leave anything “behind” . Reasonable . September was 45k with forecast 145k in final quarter. So my thoughts are now we are into better grade does that mean we can see consistent production ? If so , and at a sceptical $1200 gold price then my calculator seems to come up with some very tasty future profit figures for the next 3/4 years ?? Most of the share drop is down to mistrust of management and their poor forecasts this year . So these guys need to start “producingR21; the goods !?

[ilostthelot] 05/10/2018 17:16

AAZ another miner paying a very reasonable dividend.

[manics] 05/10/2018 16:45

91.34 your end of day UT. What a difference a day makes.

I'm still shocked they held the door open this morning for 5 minutes or so rather than uncrossing it -10% at the open. A valued exit having had hoped for 20% here, but taken the small profit instead.

The inverted H&S potential has apparently matured to a double bottom play. May look in again then (if).

GLA.

[ken tennis] 05/10/2018 15:43

Credit crunchies I like your strategy I make enough off my investments to keep me going forever I’m not quite in your league of 7.5% but I’m getting close at 6.8% so with a little tweaking and shuffling a few things
Round I will soon be up with you
ATB Ken

[cinquepercento] 05/10/2018 15:39

Bought a few at 92.19 just for fun.Now I can sit back and watch it continue down. :-]

[creditcrunchies] 05/10/2018 15:28

you got a lot dividend hunters (I'm one of them to be honest) you get the divi wait for the price to move back up and move on to the next. The FTSE is packed full of stocks paying 5% to 10%+ yield with dividend growth expecting to increase next year. My portfolio has an average yield of 7.5% if you don't believe me just scan stocks close to their 52 week lows, strong balance sheet, paying over 5% yield with divi growth into 2019 you'll get close to 100 stocks out of those there might be ones with more growth prospects than others

For this stock it has an added bonus which makes it worth holding - the gold price and a gold rally once it gets going goes on for years

[garycook] 05/10/2018 15:27

Topped up at 88.96p also.

[lodgeview] 05/10/2018 15:11

Surge into close.

[fangorn2] 05/10/2018 15:11

Nibbled a few more myself as well sub 90p, be rude not too.

[creditcrunchies] 05/10/2018 15:08

I'd suspect a fund is dumping a large block in the background if you think about it they bought the high dividend, they've paid up the dividend the next one is spring next year most probably wait and see time, after two disappointing news releases.

[scoble2] 05/10/2018 15:00

someone just bought 250,000 and 188,437 shares still price going south. why?