Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[philjeans] 21/10/2009 12:29

Yes; much brighter prospects here now and the share price is beginning to catch up with reality.

Bought more today - a long way to go for this one.

[the analyst] 21/10/2009 12:21

Hi Topgun,

I think that your £500k profit estimate and 4p target could prove to be way too low

In the six months up to June 2008, they made a net cash inflow from continuing operating activities of £342,238. During that period they only had one freeview channel and nothing on Freesat.

The period just reported showed worse figures because they had lost that channel for a few months. This shows us the huge importance of terrestrial channels to Cellcast

Now things have improved dramatically. They not only got the freeview channel back, but they gained an additional three. They also have the freesat channels too. Furthermore, we have had the enforced freeview re-tune which means loads more people are now aware of the channels. It all adds up to what might become a boom time for the company

So, it wouldn't surprise me to see that £342k six month figure double or even treble overnight with these events. We could even be looking at a rate of £1.5m pa cash generation, heading into 2010

On a PE of 6x, that sort of figure would see the company trade in the 12p range

[the analyst] 21/10/2009 11:23

My guess is that news is leaking that ofcom are not going to regulate the industry

Well, I hope that's the case, anyway :)

[the analyst] 21/10/2009 11:20

Hi trixter,

I think at the time they reduced the price of the nominals, they may have been unsure whether they would gain the rights to all those freeview and freesat channels, so the mid-term picture was not as rosy as it is now. Added to that, there was ofcom risk

So perhaps they just felt they needed a back-up plan were confident that they could raise more cash quickly at 1p if needed, (if everything had gone to pot), but not at 3p

It might be hard for them to issue more options to themselves, as they are already a 'concert party' with 29% of the shares between them

[topgunns] 21/10/2009 10:05

I'll be honest. Stock at MM's is something i know very little about. Fundamentals is my game. And this company could earn 500k over the next 12 months.

PE of 6 = 3 million market cap. Which is actually 4p mid price.

If somebody wanted to give us a PE of 12, that'd be 8p. But with the risks and generally poor record of the company, even a PE of 6 sounds a lot to me.

[trixter] 21/10/2009 10:02

bullish looking chart?

[trixter] 21/10/2009 10:02

looking at this....why did they bother going to the trouble of reducing the nominal share value from 3 p to 1 p when it looks like 3 p is now realisable? I assume they were hoping to issue options at a low value? That hasn't happened (yet)...

[lyonst5] 21/10/2009 09:50

Topgun, looking at the stock available over the past weeks it surprises me its still so low. This morning was only 1k (£20) online to buy or 500k to sell, i was on the phone to my broker to add a few more then it ticked up twice before he called the MM so i killed the order.The MM's for sure would of wanted 3p for any reasonable quantity.

[topgunns] 21/10/2009 09:39

Excellent, somebody is listening to my profit projections ;)

Going to 3p.

[the analyst] 20/10/2009 22:26

Beats me, RV

Good find, though

[recto verso] 20/10/2009 20:21

Why do we never hear anything about our minority interest in this business ?

[recto verso] 20/10/2009 19:15

Analyst,

In response to your question, I have no idea, nevertheless I don't think cable has a very large customer base ; certainly nowhere near as big as sky or freesat.

Freesat is the way forward.

RV

[topgunns] 20/10/2009 15:51

2p within days

[recto verso] 19/10/2009 19:37

I believe (off the top of my head, and beng to alzy to chaekc), that the UK business used to make £2 million gross profit pre-2006 ?

I would say that the tv chat business is now far stronger than back then (with freeview creating a huge audience, not just SKY, an array of websites, new mobile apps etc,).

Shame sumo.tv never worked but at least the company is benefiting from the technology developed to create the sumo concept.

The new strategy to concentrate on soft and hard porn is alaso a winner IMO.

High risk, high reward.

[the analyst] 19/10/2009 18:22

Yes, could be something brewing, with that sort of stock imbalance

If ofcom make a decision, I'm sure there are certain people out there that will get wind of it before any announcement is made. If we start to see the price jump, then that could be a good indicator....

[lyonst5] 19/10/2009 16:22

Something brewing here, as no stock to buy atm. ?? and can sell 500k ??

[zangdook] 19/10/2009 14:54

analyst - thanks

[topgunns] 19/10/2009 14:43

It's going to 3p as we predicted.

[the analyst] 19/10/2009 14:37

Overall, I'd say 90p is not on the agenda

But, if things went well over the next few years, then 40p could be a "long-shot" possibility

To put it into perspective, all it would take would be to make £2m in profits and for the company to be valued at 15x earnings - that would give a market cap of £30m, which equates to 40p

Or, £1.5m profit and a rating of 20x earnings, etc.

I think most investors are of the opinion that the UK business could (should?) be making £1m+ pa with the freeview and freesat channels in place. Whether they will do that is a different matter altogether, but I for one think they should be able to make that kind of money right now...

[the analyst] 19/10/2009 14:32

I'd say it is semi-reversible, zangdook.

UK businnes:
The UK business is still there (it was affected by all sorts of issues in the past and became loss-making), but is getting back on track and 'could' be earning £1m+ if they get it right

Brazil business:
Looks to be dead and buried, although according to the CEO, there is still a chance it could be resurrected if things out there change one day

Exconomic conditions
Self-explanatory, really - the better the economy, the more punters will spend on the UK offering and also, the higher the rating given to publicly-listed companies