Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[the analyst] 05/11/2009 22:03

It's going to be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks, as the news starts to filter out. We may see a lot of interest, or we may just see people hang on waiting for official confirmation from the company with regards to the financial impact going forward

We know the company is now basically 'in the clear' and can trade at break-even quite easily with just the Sky channels. This is the most important thing, because now the 'risk' is minimal.

All this time, they have traded at break-even whilst still being able to invest in new initiatives that are only just coming through now and should add to the bottom line in the future

But, there is something else that people have missed...

That is, that over the last year and a half, the company will have been paying huge lawyer fees and lobbying costs that we should not have to pay any more as 2010 begins. Now, I wonder how much those cost will have been? A friend of mine thinks they could be well over £500k per six month period! If that is the case, then once those costs have gone, even if we just had the Sky channels, we should be well in profit in the future. Remember that is without Freeview, which could be worth £1m pre-tax alone. And then we have Freesat on top of that, going into 2010.

What else?

We also know that the company is striving to improve their efficiency and at the same time they have carried on investing in technology throughout 2009. They are planning to introduce numerous revenue-enhancing features over the next few months, including phone applications, new websites and advertising initiatives. This week we have already seen the introduction of advertising for the websites to entice people to subscribe. The new offer is a lot more 'naughty' than anything they have dared to come up with previously. They are now offering new subscribers a 'free' 15 minutes per month of phone chat, which I think may prove to be popular

[21simthy] 05/11/2009 18:56

Bidding 3.15p for size before the close TA, certainly want the stock
despite that sale, must have been delayed 3 hours+ as i never saw it
originally, plenty of buying to go with the sales though.

[the analyst] 05/11/2009 16:57

Pretty strong trading today, despite the fact that the company are refraining from announcing the news, for now

Over 1.25m shares were traded and the price still rose strongly despite someone taking profit and selling 600k half way through the day

[philjeans] 05/11/2009 15:37

Just nabbed another 50k whilst nobody was watching.

[lyonst5] 05/11/2009 10:18

I just had a look over at the 3i discussion board not a post for over 5 months, its certainly slipped of most peoples radars.

[lyonst5] 05/11/2009 09:42

I think if your not reading this board you would'nt know about the ofcom proposals, the deals going though are probably all from the posters or lurkers on this board.
I got 100k @ 3p at the open today

[21simthy] 05/11/2009 09:37

ps...can sell 500k at 3p mid price online, that must be good
for this stock ?

[21simthy] 05/11/2009 09:28

Naah things have always been on the up in the porn industry :-))

[lyonst5] 05/11/2009 09:27

Thanks analyst, I'am feeling a lot better about the situation now, i think they have learnt a lot over the past years, though at the share holders expense,but now not the time to dwell on it.
They should now be able to cherry pick the winning products and platforms and start cull any losing ones, with the ofcom rules at least they know where they stand and can build the business without the risk out of the blue that the axe may fall on them one day.
Just to add, the move into the porn side of things was a good move, as you never hear of a crisis in that industry.

[21simthy] 05/11/2009 09:24

Thanks.

Buying on plus, not sure if you all have the link for those without
L2 and plus trades.

[the analyst] 05/11/2009 09:22

Well, yes, they should announce, but these documents are long and complex and will take a bit of time to digest

They need to address the issue about the regulation on Freeview channels and how the adult can be separated from the non-adult using that system

So, I guess they need the lawyers to be 100% sure of the all the consequences before making any announcement of their own to the LSE

[the analyst] 05/11/2009 09:04

So, I heard back from Andrew Wilson, (the CEO at Cellcast)

Sounds like they are indeed very pleased with the Ofcom announcement - they see it as good for the company and also good for the industry as a whole (TV/converging media)

He said that they are in the process of clarifying the document with their lawyers and once that is done, they will consult their NOMAD on whether they should issue an RNS

He acknowledged the fact they have all the new Freeview channels and went on to say that they will also be on Freesat by the end of this year. Good news...

Finally, I asked about other progress in the company that I had spotted and whether they could release news about it - he said that right now he is reluctant to publish too many details on what they are progressing on new platforms for competitive reasons

So, I guess we won't get a statement for a while, if we get one at all. That said, if the share price were to continue to recover, they may be forced into a 'recent price movement' style of RNS.

Just a case of sitting back and waiting to see results coming in from these new channels and how the market reacts to the news as they cotton on to it...

[21simthy] 05/11/2009 08:52

Naah, i known your name for as long as i can remember and one
of the rare breed of honest posters so if you are bullish then
you must be onto something here.

Small punt.

[the analyst] 05/11/2009 08:50

Thanks simthy

Don't buy because you like my posts, though - you need to do your own research into the company, valuation and prospects!

[lyonst5] 05/11/2009 08:47

Anyone want a job.

[21simthy] 05/11/2009 08:41

TA.

Like your posts so bought 50k this morning at 3.25p

[the analyst] 04/11/2009 22:22

Cheers fiestaford,

Lets hope the Directors can start to give us a bit more info in the form of rns releases. As shareholders, we should be kept up to date by them and we should not be having to find ALL this stuff out for ourselves via google etc.

Quite clearly, these events (ofcom and the winning of the new channels on freeview) are significant in terms of the business and profits going forward

[the analyst] 04/11/2009 22:13

So, just thinking about what we should expect now.

We know that with just the Sky channels, even during the darkest days of the recession, that Cellcast can make profit.

But now, we also have the freeview channels (which dwarfs Sky in terms of viewers) and we have Freesat too.

We know that the more channels they have over and above the Sky ones, a lot of cash basically drops straight through to the bottom line. So, with Sky AND Freeview/Freesat, we should be looking at some very profitable and cash-generative days ahead

Are there any risks?

Some people have argued that these new rulings might mean that the freeview channels will have to go when the rules are introduced. This is because right now they say that the channels can't be segregated properly on freeview. But, I don't think that will be the case. There are several ways for them to still feature on Freeview and satisfy these ofcom rules.

Firstly, there are various technical ways around it that can be applied right now, as illustrated in forums mentioned earlier

More than that, if the last consultation was anything to go by, it will be 18 months before any rules are introduced and applied in full. In 18 months the technology will be in place for people at home to press a button and control channels more easily on Freeview. We are now in the digital age and segregation of channels will be nothing special in six months, never mind 18 months time.

Basically, I think the ofcom comments relating to freeview are just telling them that they need to get their act together and make sure the technology is there, when the time comes, so that they can segregate adult/psychic from the other channels. Nothing more than that

[the analyst] 04/11/2009 22:05

In terms of share price over the next few days/weeks. it's hard to predict what will happen. But I do feel that the share price needs to rise, so it reflects the fact that we now have a low risk 'cash cow' business

We know now that Cellcast have a viable, profitable business going forward

A £1m profit on a PE of 6x would see a share price of 8p. But, as someone mentioned, it is possible that we may (at some stage) be looking at a £2m profit and possibly, being rated on a much higher PE. Many stocks are trading on PEs of 10x and higher, but I suspect that CLTV really need to bank the profits before that can happen.

[fiestaford] 04/11/2009 20:43

the analyst and others thx for ur hard work for keeping everyone informed.

ff

[the analyst] 04/11/2009 20:37

Yes, RV it is great news...

There must be some celebrating going on over at Cellcast right now!

[recto verso] 04/11/2009 19:29

Great news on Ofcom Analyst !! our patience will pay after all.

I'm impressed with progress on the websites of late.

Looking very good.

[lyonst5] 04/11/2009 16:24

A rns with the companies view on its implications for the future would be good reading tomorrow morning.