Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[ldmachin] 05/3/2009 10:13

21st Century,

It's all about watching for the right signs... which stopped me buying into rubbish like WLW. And it's all about the timing pal... good timing allowed me to buy LNG at 4p... while you were buying at 6p+.

Look and learn son.

[21st century media company] 05/3/2009 09:44

LDM

But not enough to make you buy is it?

Seems like you don't believe your own bull.

[the analyst] 05/3/2009 00:43

That link with the Daily sport is interesting. More evidence that a lot of work is still going into the company behind the scenes, which is good to see.

[ldmachin] 04/3/2009 23:26

21st Century,

Being a WLW shareholder, i'm sure you know the administration process well by now... ;-) Your track record isn't too rosy is it.

Months go by and Cellcast are still here, still getting new deals, new output formats, hiring new girls, etc, etc...

[the analyst] 03/3/2009 23:47

Cheers

If management bought Neil's shares off him, I think they would have to make an offer for the entire company - their concert party is very near to that crucial 30% level

[the analyst] 03/3/2009 23:05

My guess is that the clientele that use the 3G services also come directly from marketing on the TV shows.

What they really need to do is get customers coming in from sources other than TV. That is not easy and might take millions. Which they do not have.

If ofcom are kind to Cellcast, then I think they stand a chance.

If the ofcom ruling is bad, then they could salvage quite a lot of value for investors through selling off the EPG slots, sumo.tv and the Asian business. In that scenario, though, many Directors would choose to go into administration and buy those assets from the administrators. Would it surprise you if that happened? I know Neil Craven has 100% confidence in the integrity of the Directors. Do you?

[ldmachin] 03/3/2009 22:19

the analyst,

Well, it can be seen that the webshows are busy daily... but whether they can sustain the business on their own is yet to be seen... there is the 3G phone side of the business too, which is neither web or TV output, but one-on-one.

What management should be doing, as i've said before, is get the TV output on to channels in other countries, USA, Canada, Netherlands, etc... via a partnership if required. They are a proven money spinner that have been going many years here... no reason they wouldn't do just as well in other countries.

The next trading update will be the defining one for this company... the signs are there that they aren't doing too bad...

[the analyst] 03/3/2009 22:06

Well, on the one hand, margins might be well be much higher for the internet businesses, but where would they get the traffic from without the TV show?

At the moment, I suspect that most of their web traffic comes from the marketing on the shows. If they lost the TV shows, then I guess traffic would drop to basically zero and they will go bust very quickly

Maybe they are actually doing OK on google and a lot of traffic comes through that route? Do you have any evidence to suggest they get significant traffic from the search engines?

[ldmachin] 03/3/2009 21:55

the analyst,

As far as i know, the PartyGirls 'presenters' were told that the show was due to end at the end of Feb... but Cellcast recently extended it...

"I'd prefer to see a 2 year extension, but with a clause that they can exit if ofcom decision goes against them."

- I don't know if such a contract would be allowed. I think it would be too much on Cellcasts terms and i'm not sure how much cash would have to deposit up front for that length of contract.

Anyway, part of me wants the Ofcom decision to slam down hard... so Cellcast are forced to leave the expensive TV based output and go for the liberal, relatively un-regulated internet route. Margins should be much higher.

The next update from the company should be interesting...

[21st century media company] 03/3/2009 21:50

why bother taking out a long contract if you suspect you may be going bust soon

one month means more for the administrators and the directors are acting responsibly

[the analyst] 03/3/2009 21:41

OK, so what your saying is that it was Cellcast's decision to extend just one month, rather than Freeview only offering them one month.

I'd prefer to see a 2 year extension, but with a clause that they can exit if ofcom decision goes against them.

[ldmachin] 03/3/2009 21:37

the analyst,

Like i said, they originally took out a 9 month license, which was due to end at the end of Feb 09. There is no point them extending it for a long period (a year or two) of time now until the ofcom decision is known... that would be shooting themselves in the foot. A one month extension seems sensible to me...

[the analyst] 03/3/2009 21:32

A one month extension doesn't sound very promising to me, LDM.

I'd say that extending another year or two would a good sign, but not a one month extension. I guess it's better than nothing, but it's pretty insignificant, imo.

Why do you think it is good?

[recto verso] 03/3/2009 21:25

Shame.

Some good ideas, hopefully Cellcast will take note.

[ldmachin] 03/3/2009 21:23

Recto Verso,

That site is nothing to do with Cellcast pal.

[lord santafe] 03/3/2009 20:55

The odds of trebling ones money on Cellcast in bookies terms, must be better than 50/50. Before it may of been more like 3/1, but now I am becoming much more sure that the update will be very good news indeed.

[lord santafe] 02/3/2009 14:23

Rising on the fact that these shares are now very tightly held, since compared with all the buys, very litle shares have been sold on the way down to 0.5p. When the proper buying starts, speculators will be a struggle to obtain a decent amount for less than 1.5p.

[the analyst] 26/2/2009 19:10

Cheers LDM, great post.

I'm 100% agreed on your comment about the management. It won't be long and we will find out whether they've been doing a good job, or if we get more of what we had last time - mysteriously lower margins on increased revenues