Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[earwacks] 12/4/2023 07:18

Ah. Not quite the rns I was expecting! £2.1 million contract for rare diseases. Very welcome news

[earwacks] 05/4/2023 22:41

Will find out soon enough next week. Update was ‘trading ahead of expectations.’ Am happy buying as far down as they want to take it.

[40 fathoms] 04/4/2023 22:42

My suspision is the move of the last few days is all about April 5th being the last day of the tax year. Possibly also linked to the exercise of options we saw from a few days a go. Trades made after the 5th April fall in to the new tax year and under the much reduced CGT allowance.

I would also note that @90k of the options that were issued last week were done so using the net cashless feature. Essentially this is a margin loan, anyone using that feature was not able or not planning to hold these shares for any length of time.

[mdchand] 04/4/2023 17:28

Or someone has short sold (or forward sold) the 3m plus shares used to purchase Winterlight even though they had a 6 month lock in. Guess an RNS will answer that theory in due course.

[mdchand] 04/4/2023 17:23

I think its simply drifting in the absence of substantive news coupled with the lack of support now that it has fallen through 110. Alas, in these situations, the share price can decouple on both the upside and downside and while good news might rectify the gap its impossible to say when the next RNS will be. However, if you believe in the story, and the high barriers to entry, wait for the price to stabilise and double up!

[cerrito] 04/4/2023 17:14

This drift could be company specific, but remember today was not a good day for jam tomorrow companies, even those like COG who have no near term need to raise equity.

[zimbtrader] 04/4/2023 14:01

This is starting to look ominous. Like the market knows something we don't.

[40 fathoms] 03/4/2023 14:40

I guess while I am at it, the other really important thing to keep in mind, is when they talk about their pipeline this is not some random assessment of possible business on any given day, these will relate to very specific projects which, subject to the vagaries of client timing and clinical development risk (moving through the phases of clinical trials)Cambridge Cognition will have already been involved with.

Certainly in CNS conditions, one of the very first decisions a drug development team will make, is which cognitive tests they are going to use to validate their intervention. This is both in terms of the specific battery of tests that will be used, whether to go for digital testing or pencil and paper, weather to make the testing remote or at the trial site, weather to use self administered tests or tests taken in the presence of a rater. Currently most trials are pencil and paper based, conducted at the various clinical sites under the supervision of a neuropsychologist (rater). Clearly in the future almost all tests will be digitally administered, predominatly self administered (i.e with out a rater) and predominantly conducted away from the clinical site. In essence there are only two companies that are able to provide across a broad spectrum of indications, end to end, VALIDATED tests and services for the future set up for clinical trials.

Given this pharma development teams will be engaged with Cambridge Cognition at a very early stage in their development sometimes years before they are in a position to launch trials and provide significant revenue opportunities. Also once that decision is made it is highly unlikely that if a drug is successful in its clinical development that they will change their test provider.

So I think how management characterises their pipeline is also an important leading indicator. While they will not have much control over the timing of contract awards, they will have very good visibility in to awards they are likely to get once a client is ready to move forward.

[tratante] 03/4/2023 10:29

Thanks 40 and Ear. Very helpful analysis.

[earwacks] 03/4/2023 09:49

Bagged another 3k this morning and some Others. As Paul Scott says there are some ridiculous bargains now but not sure he would like any of my stock! Gl

[cerrito] 02/4/2023 11:52

40 Fathoms
Updates appreciated.
Thanks

[40 fathoms] 02/4/2023 10:23

I think the next update will show very clearly the path to a fast growing and profitable business. This will be clear from the leading indicators but it will take time for that to show up in the reported numbers. There are three reasons for this (1) our cash receipts run significantly ahead of our ability to recognise revenue from an accounting perspective. Growth in contracted order book and net cash received are leading indicators by @18 to 24 months of future booked revenue. (2) to date we have expensed all R&D. This runs at @ GBP 1.5 million a year and from this point I would not expect it to grow very much. There is a case for some of these development costs to be capitalised especially where there is clear commercial traction such as with Neurovocalix. Regardless, this will now drop significantly as a percentage of booked revenue.(3) Both of the recent acquisitions are going to be loss making (from a revenue recognition perspective) in the near term. It is unclear what the cashflow effect is at this point and probably depends on the number and size of near term new contracts signed in those units.

I think the upshot is, baring some significant event, that we are likely to be loss making to the tune of about GBP 850k in FY2023, small profitable in FY2024 and significantly profitable in 2025. However, as we roll through 2023 the necessary contracts will fall in to place and that will provide high visibility to that FY2025 profitability number. At this point it looks like we are trading on a FY2025 PE of between 14x and 18x . Which given that significant further growth will still lay ahead of us seems too cheap to me. It is worth noting that a couple of large Phase III trials won over the next 12 months and there could be good upside to those 2025 P/E numbers.

A bit of patience is going to be required with the reported numbers but as FY2023 unwinds and new contracts are signed that substantial FY2025 profitability just becomes a function of revenue recognition of the contracted order book.

[earwacks] 02/4/2023 08:54

Looks very interesting the shareholder register. I see the top holder is Nigel Wray 14 percent(sarecens rugby)dominos pizza amongst other things. Is he South African by any chance?
Then there is a guy called Brett Gordon)possibly the Boston investor. Then the usual , Axa, Octopus, Perpetual and a health care fund, Lichternstein bank. Surprisingly small amount held by staff. Out of the 35 million shares looks like 40 percent held by others and Pi’s. Looks quite a healthy balance. Take your point about royalty license. Was a sensible move to spin out Monument. That could have become quite a drain on Cog. I think she is a very smart lady and sounds very much in touch about planning the best route to commercialisation. Walk before running etc. at the moment this stock is still on a bit of a racy valuation but with good reason and that could look a lot cheaper on next update hopefully. Good luck and thanks again for your inputs 40F

[40 fathoms] 02/4/2023 02:02

I have been doing a bit of digging about on the shareholder register and have been able to note the following new shareholders as a result of the equity issued in relation to the Winterlight Accquistion. They issued a total of 3,445,595 shares

HIKMA Venture - 931,204 shares (2.67%)
GB Assets LLC - 832,388 shares (2.39%)
2312 North LLC - 698,403 shares (2.01%)
First Star Ventures Fund II LP - 462,796 shares (1.33%)
Novatio I LP - 143,507 shares (0.41%)
PHV Healthcare Fund I - 122,928 shares (0.35%)
Maria Yancheva (Winterlight Employee) - 64,378 shares (0.18%)
Liam Kaufman (Winterlight Employee) - 64,378 shares (0.18%)
Frank Rudzicz (Winterlight Employee) - 48,283 shares (0.14%)

So I have been able to identify 98% of the new holders of the shares issued. There are 77,330 shares issued that I have not been able to identify, given the small size I suspect this is accounted for by additional Winterlight labs staff members.

[40 fathoms] 01/4/2023 22:56

@earwacks, Cambridge Cognition have said they will not put any additional cash into Monument Tx, so their equity stake will get diluted in the next capital raise. Nevertheless their equity position will still be substantial, however the real value lies in the double digit top line royalty.

[earwacks] 01/4/2023 18:00

40 F. Thanks for posting that. I see COG retained near 40 percent in monument. Should have bought more than I did on friday maybe, although sounds like this could be a long and expensive path to market. Hope she succeeds and fulfils her dreams in finding cures for some of theses dreadful illnesses.
Seems odd to see the price drifting when they already stated trading would be ahead of expectations and maybe the last acquisition beginning to contribute to revenue. Will be happy to go again on Monday if it continues to drift down on such small sells.

[40 fathoms] 01/4/2023 05:15

Here is a recent and excellent talk with the CEO of Monument Therapeutics gives a good idea of what they are up to. Once again Cambridge Cognition has a double digit gross top line royalty over commercialisation plus a pretty decent equity stake. This is currently on the books from @65k. A significant source of hidden optionality with in the valuation of Cambridge Cognition.

[40 fathoms] 01/4/2023 05:12

More progress at Monument Tx ..... where we have a double digit top line gross royalty and a handy equity stake. Both programs continue to make progress, the treatment for neuroinflammation has the potential to be truly huge as currently there are no approved drugs to treat neuroinflammation and it is prevalent in almost all CNS conditions from AD, through to Stroke and TBI and Chemobrain


Monument Therapeutics to present positive data for first clinical study of MT1980, a novel treatment for neuroinflammation

Monument Tx CSO to present positive data from first-in-human clinical study for MT1980, a novel treatment for neuroinflammation, at AD/PD conference March 28th-April 1st 2023
Manchester, UK, March 27th, 2023: Monument Therapeutics, a stratified neuroscience company, today announced they will be presenting positive results from their lead clinical program at the AD/PD conference, March 28th–April 1st 2023.
In this presentation, Monument Tx will report data from their first-in-human Phase I study of MT1980, an anti-inflammatory compound using novel brain-targeting technology. Healthy volunteers received either placebo or a single oral dose of MT1980 at 70mg, 140mg or 250mg to evaluate safety and tolerability, systemic bioavailability, and presence of the drug in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). MT1980 was very well tolerated without any significant side effects or other safety signal identified. Drug was found in the CSF for all of the volunteers, indicating presence of the drug in the brain for each dose level of MT1980.
MT1980 has been designed as an innovative therapy for poorly-treated conditions associated with neuroinflammation, such as Alzheimer’s disease, post-operative cognitive decline and long Covid. The unique absorption profile of MT1980, achieved using technology developed by TRx Biosciences and exclusively licensed to Monument Tx, resolves blood-brain-barrier penetration limitations that exist with standard on-market formulations of the compound. In preclinical studies reported in 2022, MT1980 showed significantly enhanced brain uptake and strong anti-neuroinflammatory activity across a panel of key biomarkers.
Monument Therapeutics now plans a further Phase I clinical study to rapidly provide additional safety and pharmacokinetic data following multiple dosing of MT1980, in addition to evidence of an anti-inflammatory effect in the brain.
Kiri Granger, Chief Scientific Officer of Monument Therapeutics, said: “Our first clinical study demonstrates we have a unique opportunity to exert multiple attractive anti-inflammatory pharmacologies within the brain using MT1980 without significant side effects. This brings Monument one step closer to treating many patients experiencing symptoms such as memory loss and cognitive problems as a result of inflammation in the brain who are currently under-served. We are very excited to continue this work by showing how the presence of our compound in the brain delivers efficacy in a human model of neuroinflammation.”
John Brew, Chief Scientific Officer of TRx Biosciences added: “TRx is delighted to be collaborating with Monument on MT1980. Our oral delivery technology uniquely enables drug delivery to the CNS, creating the potential for centrally penetrant anti-inflammatory effects.”
Jenny Barnett, Chief Executive Officer of Monument Therapeutics added: “We are delighted to present detailed data from Monument Therapeutics’ first clinical study and are now focusing on progressing our clinical development program.”

[arieljcohen] 16/3/2023 15:24

Looks like a 300k share sale just went through..

[sspurt] 16/3/2023 14:38

Ok thanks 40F

[40 fathoms] 16/3/2023 09:38

No, Kooth and Cambridge Cognition do very different things. Cambridge Cognition only provide tools to measure certain aspects of brain function, well that is not quite true, they now also provide additional services that support, enhance and enable the clinical trial where those test are used. It does not provide mental health/ well being coaching or CBT of any description.

[sspurt] 16/3/2023 09:29

Anyone know if the Kooth contract win in California announced today is something that COG would have competed for?

[sev22] 06/3/2023 18:53

Cambridge Cognition advancing digital solutions to aid brain health:

[40 fathoms] 25/2/2023 10:05

Situation is interesting at Cogstate, it is clear that Martin Myer is prepared to sell. With that Cogstate will not last more than 18 months as a listed company and that will see interest quickly turn to Cambridge Cognition. It is also certain that he will not let the business go cheaply, he certainly does not need the money as he is part of the Myer Department Stores family dynasty. I assume this might be why the talks broke down, it is also clear that last week the possibility of a takeover leaked given the huge sure in volumes. Anyway, if and when they sell at a great price it will be fantastically supportive for Cambridge Cognitions share price, as its business is much higher margin, its technology is much more sensitive and it has a much wider therapeutic area focus.

The read across for Cambridge Cognition on the profit warning was limited. The warning relates mainly to a slower than expected enrolment at a very large Phase III AD trial being conducted by Eli Lilly. When I say large trial the contracted amount is something like a $ 28 million over 3 years and they are right in the meat of it at the moement. Their test is being used as an endpoint. Overtime what constitutes a large contract for Cambridge Cognition will rise considerably. Currently $ 2-3 million is the upper range of what we sign. As we start to see more large neurodegenerative Phase III trials and offer a full range of service we will see contracts in excess of $10 million.

All of the forward looking metrics Cogstate gave were positive, both book to bill and cash inflow. They will report full details next Tuesday.

[somerset lad] 24/2/2023 13:37

Large PW from Cogstate on delays on pt enrolment and execution of contracts: hxxps://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02635783-3A613519?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4.