Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[40 fathoms] 09/7/2021 14:51

Just thought it was interesting to note that in the whole of 2020 there were GBP 5.9 million of contracts signed that required RNSs and already in 2021 we have surpassed that number with GBP 6.4 million announced. Given the overall highly supportive back drop I am very confident that we will see a significant number of additional large contracts signed before the year is out. My best guess is that we will see order in take of at very least GBP 17.5 million this year and with the strong possibility that may get well over GBP 20 million if we land a big AD contract. Things are looking very good indeed.

[ywdis] 09/7/2021 08:53

Coincidentally Open Orphan today announced a contract win for clinical trials , not the same arena as COG but makes one think

[40 fathoms] 09/7/2021 07:27

Another nice RNS today... and it is not even in AD. The cognitive effects of many drugs and treatments is becoming a focus for the FDA. Especially as we move more and more towards the use of immunotherapy in oncology. We know that CAR-T cell therapy is associated with frequent neurological toxicities. But we still understand very little about the possible side effects of immunotherapy agents on cognitive function and this is an important challenge in future clinical trials, as well as better understanding the underlying mechanisms through preclinical animal models.

[smithie6] 02/7/2021 11:38

I guess that the recent spin off deal has gone down well with the mkt since a chunk of costs has been removed from the COG accounts which instantly improves the profitability of COG

& it shows the quality & desirability for the COG skills/products which I believe increases their value

[40 fathoms] 02/7/2021 07:35

Smithie, Thank you, happy you are making some money here.

I think there is an awful lot more to come from Cambridge in the next 12 months. I see FinnCap took their estimate up to 190p yesterday. The company is a bit cautious around guidance (I actually don't mind that) but I am going to be interested to see what they do to there forecasts for second half. Just applying the normal margin and time based attribution to the new larger contracts announced I reckon we will see a PBT of @900k this FY. If we apply the same to next year and make some mild assumptions about a pick up in contract wins in the 2nd half I reckon we are between 3.5 million and 4 million for 2022. With lots of upside if a healthcare deal is signed. If i am right about PBT forecast for next year what would be a fair P/E forecast 20x, 25x, 30x ? Any of these P/Es would provide us with very decent upside from here and there is possibility of substantial positive surprises in the revenue and PBT numbers.

[smithie6] 01/7/2021 11:33

40Fathoms

thanks for your informed posts

especially the ones at around 140p giving your opinion that the FDA giving drug permission would lead to more turnover for COG

I liked the logic so I bought some more shares since it seemed like a 'lose nothing & phps make a gain' type deal

& it's nice that it turned out to be the latter case !

[yus777] 01/7/2021 11:14

delayed big buy popped up stillnt trade at 184p

[dave4545] 01/7/2021 11:01

Remember when this was 22p offer and nobody would touch it.

8 times the price buyers all over it.

It's done well though, totally turned it's business around

[yus777] 01/7/2021 10:59

looking very strong to run up to 200p n beyond nt trade only at 183p zak will be all over this

[smithie6] 01/7/2021 09:17

directors have been working hard in recent weeks !

[40 fathoms] 01/7/2021 07:50

MM84, todays RNS answers your question about the spin out of Monument Therapeutics.

"Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc (AIM: COG), which develops and markets digital solutions to assess brain health, is pleased to announce the completion of the spin-out of Monument Therapeutics Limited ("Monument Therapeutics"), a drug development company applying digital phenotyping to central nervous system ("CNS") disorders."

A huge amount of optionality in this announcement, we have @36% of a funded early stage drug development company with a potentially large royalty stream in the event of commercialisation. The initial focus is on POCD (post operative cognitive dysfunction)and cognitive impairment in schizophrenia.

If the royalties are top line and given the size of the addressable markets being targeted the amounts involved could be very significant indeed.

[yus777] 28/6/2021 12:18

barchart all resistence broken so tommorow should be even better day 200p roll on

[yus777] 28/6/2021 11:54

looking very very strong nt to buy at 165p no shares available mms very short 180p very soon

[yus777] 28/6/2021 11:25

zak will be all over this strong finnish today then boom tommorow get in while you can short term target 275p

[yus777] 28/6/2021 11:22

should be 1.75 with that 10,000 buy over ask mms no shares thell have to strike it up

[yus777] 28/6/2021 11:20

discuising reported buys as sells the trolls

[yus777] 28/6/2021 11:16

mms holing it down 10,000 bought over ask at 167.5 next target 1.80-190p

[40 fathoms] 28/6/2021 07:07

New £2.2 million contract for at-home cognitive testing in a virtual clinical trial

This is just the start, the announcements are going to keep coming for about as far as the eye can see.

[40 fathoms] 24/6/2021 14:54

it is game on for big pharma, there will be a lot more.

[40 fathoms] 23/6/2021 12:56

Cerrito,

Thank you, always good to have a bit of luck, not happy with the price, given the potential in that name but booked a very decent profit so should not be too greedy. ATB

If you are prepared to look at drug development companies and I understand these are not everyones cup of tea can I suggest you take a look at IXC AU it is a company called Invex and is listed in Australia. Under the guidance of Professor Alexandra Sinclair the Head of the Metabolic Neurology Research Group at Birmingham University they repurposing Ecenatide, a generic drug for treating diabetes to treat Idiopathic Intracranial Hypertension.

Nothing in drug development is a slam dunk, but this is a close as it gets in my view. You have a generic drug with a very well known and established safety profile, the worlds leading expert in the condition heading the science, a very very strong Phase II trial results and is fully funded through its Phase III which will start in the next 6 to 8 months.

It has a current EV of @ AUD 20 million, this is crazy low in my opinion given its postion. The reason for this is the market has misunderstood its approach to the FDA ( I can DM you all of the details if you have interest).

[40 fathoms] 23/6/2021 12:35

Smithie6, I guess my point is that the current market cap does not even start to capture the growth and profitability they will achieve in clinical trials market over the next 3 years.

In that time, as icing you COULD see say 5 million tests a year from healthcare, the spin out of their digital phenotyping business, when you start to look at their patents and the academic papers they are publishing it is clear they are working on digital biomarkers in a number of areas. If one of those hits the mark or gets picked up as a companion diagnostic, you could see depending on the focus area, significant further royalty streams.

They have leading technology, a leading brand and sit at the nexus of two huge investment trends, the digitisation of clinical trials/healthcare and a return of drug development in CNS conditions. My biggest fear is we get taken out before some of these trends have had a chance to play out.

[cerrito] 23/6/2021 11:42

40
I saw yesterday's news on Voluntis and well done for that and too bad I did not organize myself to follow your example.

[smithie6] 23/6/2021 11:03

thanks for writing that.

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the test creator getting $1.5/test seems quite low, but I guess it depends how many tests that client body is committing to sell/use

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big market for the tests, yes I agree.