Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[earwacks] 19/11/2024 08:55

Doubt opportunistic bid would get passed the board or top share holders. Would have to be very hostile to beat Brett for starters. Lots of interesting things happening with 🍏 I would like to know more about. Even their former broker analyst doesn’t seem to have much clue

[bedford1976] 19/11/2024 08:41

Yes Brett Gordon will be in direct contact with the board as a more or less 10 percent part owner. Indicates the share price is an anomaly and the underlying business is on target.
I think CamCog is a no brainer at the current share price. Hopefully some more buyers surface and we get a lift in the company value. My fear is we are quite vulnerable to a opportunistic bid with such a low market cap in this lucrative sector.

[earwacks] 18/11/2024 23:42

Brett Gordon can’t get enough. Moved to over 9 percent holding. Interestingly not moved the share price a jot. It’s about 100,000 shares £30ks worth. Not much but hopefully an encouraging sign. Some explaining to do to all shareholders , not just to the privileged few

[bedford1976] 18/11/2024 11:49

Yes agree the current management have got to roll their sleeves up and get some good contracts. They need to focus on generating cash now and getting into a comfortable position. No further acquisitions just a pile of cash in the bank will do nicely. .

[jasperlachat] 18/11/2024 10:00

The price is under the floor! 40% reduction in share price on the only news of Stork being chopped!!? That wasn’t quite the deal back in June, when we handed them more dosh.

[bedford1976] 15/11/2024 12:29

Topped up my holding today whilst the price is on the floor hopefully some good news coming soon on contract wins.

[40 fathoms] 07/11/2024 22:59

There are a couple of things worth noting about Monument Therapeutics:
Firstly, the valuation in the RNS and Dowgate report is based on the last funding round mark, which would be based on some degree of success. However, given the size of the markets MTx is addressing a typical risk-based DCF valuation for MTx would be enormously higher.

Secondly, MTx uses reformulated generic APIs which already approved by the FDA and are off patent, with known safety profiles and MOAs. So safety becomes much less of an issue than it would be in a new CNS focused API.

Finally, MTx's approach involves both the drug and the digital test to identify suitable patients. Cambridge Cognition owns these tests and has licensed them to MTx. These validated tests have their own distinct value. The Latent Inhibition test, for instance, is a key biomarker in many conditions beyond Schizophrina, including ADHD, depression, certain types of autism, bipolar disorder, OCD, and PTSD.

[earwacks] 07/11/2024 15:51

The only good thing I like about Cog is the relatively low share count. At the present time there are too many things up in the air. The big caveat for Monument is the ‘if successful’ valuation attributed to Cog. Dowgate dont appear to have any further insight to senior management upheaval,other than to say it has stabilised.( PT still £1.25. ) Well of course it has for now after devaluing the company by 40%! The market is brilliant at reacting like this. I dont know why companies cant add a little comment to try and mitigate the usual over reaction. Its an opportunity maybe, but a blind one and not right after a placing thanks very much. Poor all round. Zero point.

[bedford1976] 07/11/2024 13:06

Hopefully the market will come to its senses soon and re-rate Cambridge Cognition.

[jasperlachat] 07/11/2024 12:01

RNS highlights c£1.8m increase in balance sheet, yet Cog M/Cap remains at a paltry £12m. Impossible to remain independent imo. Someone’s going to gobble us up. With the assurance that all is good despite the departure of Stork, someone must be running the slide rule over this. I would if I had more funds!

[bmcollins] 06/11/2024 08:19

@40 Fathoms
Yes that rns was good news indeed, the rise so far in the share price is less than stellar but this company does look like it has the wind firmly behind it now.

[40 fathoms] 06/11/2024 07:15

RNS out with respect to the Monument Therapeutics. It relates to the valuation uplift based on the recent financing round. Worth noting that they only address the uplift to the equity position and do not address the 12.5% top line royalty held over Monument Therapeutics products, which has the potential to be many, many times more valuable than the equity if they be able to out licence one of their API/Biomarker combinations.

I only have the Dowgate note, but you would think this would have been the opportunity for Mgt and or the analyst to have made any trim their number if they were going to. Instead they leant in and point-out £2 mn of net cash, £1.8 mn Monument stake, an EV of £ 8mn, revenue of £14 mn and £0.5mn of cash earnings for this year.

[40 fathoms] 05/11/2024 23:10

I think it is worth pointing out and verified from their news feed and the FDA Clinical Trials website that they continue to pick up small contracts. It is reasonable to expect 2 or 3 larger contracts to be won in the next few months.

[earwacks] 05/11/2024 15:04

I see joint managing directors are likely candidates for role as CEO. One with clinical trials experience and the other previously in a senior role with Amazon. I wonder if they are being offered the chance to prove themselves on the job. Winner takes all. Would have hoped for some contract news by now. If the CEO departure is the only reason for the share price crash then this looks to be a bargain. Not many buyers here or anywhere else. First it was waiting for the budget, now the election, then Christmas and….. trading update not that far off. 50 percent rise required just to get back to pass pre the retiring CEO news. Ridiculous

[yump] 25/10/2024 13:53

Oh yes annual revenue double +

I hope to be surprised! Perhaps if they get close to profit and the market improves, the share price will respond well.

At which point a placing for working capital for expansion wouldn’t be a problem.

[jasperlachat] 25/10/2024 13:31

As ever thanks 40 Fathoms, although I am many fathoms down as we stand. Pretty relaxed here as the potential is evident.

[40 fathoms] 24/10/2024 23:05

@Yump, a small correction to your post: the £5.8m revenue number was for the first half of this year only. The revenue for the whole of last year was around £13.5m, and a similar figure is forecast for this year.

Regarding the point about the company being top-heavy, I agree. They acquired two businesses within five months, both with overlapping corporate and scientific functions. Although some early synergies were realised, they were too slow to make further savings when the trials market slowed more than expected. Also, they likely underestimated the time and cost to integrate the three products into one platform. However, these costs are now behind us.

It is worth noting that Winterlight and Clinpal came with very little current revenue: less than £800k pa combined—and were significantly loss-making. While they have/had significant revenue potential in years 2 and 3, this has yet to materialise due to the slowdown in the trials market. Essentially, these were technology acquisitions rather than business acquisitions.

On a more positive note, at Cogstate's AGM earlier this week, they mentioned that they have been quoting on new business at record levels since the end of the summer, with the pipeline as full as it's ever been. If this is true for Cogstate, it's likely true for Cambridge Cognition as well. With an improving market backdrop we could see a record surge in new business over the next six months, which would be a welcome surprise to the market.

[bedford1976] 23/10/2024 17:29

Today we had less than 8000 shares trader so the "seller" must be completely cleared out now
Hopefully it's onwards and upwards now!

[40 fathoms] 22/10/2024 13:07

@NChanning - I believe you might be referencing the Panumure numbers from August, not the Dowgate numbers, which show a much improved net cash position at year end. It would be reasonable to ask why the two house brokers, who are so close on FY2024 estimated revenue, costs and margin, differ so significantly on closing cash.

Well, about 85% of the difference is due to differing views by the analysts as to the timing of collecting accounts receivable and the level of increase in working capital required in the second half to support the expected ramp-up on new contracts. These are issues of timing and unwind back to cash in the near term. Dowgate is more optimistic about the timing of cash collection and the level of working capital required to support expected new business. Adding back the increases in AR and working capital in the Panmure numbers gets you close to the Dowgate numbers and gives you a strongly cash flow positive second half and would result in an improved (over H1) closing net cash position.

Neither broker makes any allowance for the cash that would result from a 10% software licence fee due on the signing of new contracts.

One other smaller but not insignficant item worth noting is that the cash savings from the departure of the CEO and CFO are not captured in either model.

[bedford1976] 22/10/2024 11:58

I'm putting my faith in the fact we
have lowered our cost base sufficiently to be profitable at an annual 2024 revenue of £13-£15m as stated in the fundraise. Although we could easily beat those assumptions.
CEO leaving brings fresh eyes to the business which I believe is a positive rather than a negative.
On balance I think we will succeed, and cash does not look like an issue.

[nchanning] 22/10/2024 07:48

Most recent broker forecast has year end gross cash of 1.39m and net debt of 1 million . With 90% gross margins if they miss by even 1 million on revenue line things seem very tight ...and you've got the risk of an H2 weighting and a CEO firing

[bmcollins] 18/10/2024 14:01

@40Fathoms
Thanks for that reassuring post as I dribbled a few more in today and was less than happy when I read the earlier post re a cash shortage !

[40 fathoms] 18/10/2024 13:33

Cash is not tight, see above. Added to which there was a whistle clean going concern review statement in the recently released interim statements.