Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[dgwinterbottom] 10/4/2021 14:44

40 Fathoms - many thanks much appreciated

[40 fathoms] 10/4/2021 13:11

I think there are a number of possible reasons.

1) It is already clear they will blow away the @8.5 million revenue figure they have put out for 2021 and we are only 1/3 of the way through the year.

2) Following on from the point above this would suggest that they will also be meaningfully profitable this year. My working assumption is they will top GBP 1.25 million in PBT this year and depending on how the contracts build that could well top GBP 3.5 next year. Even at 125p per share that puts them on a P/E of 12 x next year and probably single digit for 2023.

3) On 7th April Goldman Sachs did a whole day of talks and panel discussions devoted to digital medicine and with particular focus on how digital clinical trials are now going mainstream. I understand it was very well attended.

4) With the FDA PDUFA date on ADUCANUMAB coming into view (7th June) people maybe positioning for a positive outcome. A positive result will be transformational for COG. It will open a large and near term market for delivering cognitive tests as a triage tool for potential AD patients. Think millions of tests a year being given at (pick your price) US$ 1.00, US$ 2.50, US$ 5 per test. That millions of tests per year will increase to tens of millions in the next decade. It is only COG and Cogstate that are in a position to serve this market. As a reminder Cogstate have done a 10 year deal with Eisai that will pay them a minimum of US$ 45 million over that period. Cogstate are very keen to emphasise that this is a minimum number and they expect very substantial upside.

5) As you suggest someone could well be building a stake, though I would argue with Nigel Wray and one or two other large PIs stakes anyone could well struggle to get to the 75% threshold required under a scheme of arrangement.

6) There is almost no 'traditional" institutional ownership of the stock. Maybe it is starting to gain some attention from the small cap insto crowd.

[dgwinterbottom] 10/4/2021 07:52

Anyone thought of reasons for the sharp rise in share price this week?

It has crossed my mind someone might be building a stake for a possible bid!!

[essential] 09/4/2021 07:38

Seems like covid is now responsible for every medical condition to keep the narrative going. Anyhow topped up on these - great prospects

[mike24] 08/4/2021 17:43

1ml UK now suffering long covid conditions, the problem is
being able to treat all of these different conditions,
dementia,CFS,ME, etc bringing on exaggerated symptoms as the
tragic recent case of CEO Kent Taylor suffering tinnitus

edit july 22 L/C sufferers now at 3million as the jabs are still given for elderly first
jab the valuable workers, us elderly can look after ourselves because of less contact
delivered groceries etc

[tictac] 08/4/2021 16:01

Something of a remarkable day!

mdchand - yes that is good news.

I've only recently invested here - seemed well run, with a strong product, and in an area I felt would grow. A bit of luck really that I invested when I did.

My holding is for the long term, so sort of irrelevant what the share price does in the short term - a pleasing confirmation of a decent stock choice though it may be.

[mdchand] 08/4/2021 07:59

Interested to note that this win was with a new Pharmaceutical Company - which helped ease a concern of mine - ie COG being overly reliant on 1/2 major Pharmas for business. If you look up leading Pharmas in the CNS space its the likes of Biogen / Pfizer / Novartis / J&J. I'm not saying it is ANY of these, but it could be.

[tictac] 08/4/2021 07:09

Yes. All looks pretty promising for the long term.

[40 fathoms] 08/4/2021 06:58

Another very nice contract win. At home, unsupervised, more frequent cognitive testing that is the future for many clinical trials. COG and Cogstate have this space pretty much to themselves.

[40 fathoms] 30/3/2021 06:16

Another really nice chunky contract win !

[davidosh] 29/3/2021 12:35

Just to mention that Cambridge Cognition will be one of ten companies featured in the March results round up in the MelloMonday show tonight. It will be a really packed five hour show but here are the timings....


Programme for the evening

5.00 pm Introduction to our Mello Roadshow
5.05 pm Alun @MrContrarian reviews the Mello BASH companies
5.10 pm Company presentation by Judges Scientific
5.40 pm How to join corporate fundraisings with Primary Bid
6.00 pm Company presentation by Filta Group
6.30 pm Leon Boros interviews Peter Harrison from Bioventix
7.00 pm Company presentation by Digital Box
7.30 pm A March results round up with Paul Scott, Gordon @glasshalfull & Alan Charlton
8.00 pm Company presentation by Get Busy
8.30 pm New IPO presentation by Parsley Box introduced by James Deal, Primary Bid
8.50 pm Mello BASH with Alan Charlton, Alex Schlich, Richard Crow (@RebelHQ) and Kevin Taylor


If you have not been before the webpage is here Do use this code for a half price ticket MMTADVFN50

[40 fathoms] 24/3/2021 11:07

Enegeticbacker. You are spot on, if you go back and read through the annual reports they have a tonne of stuff they have suspended to focus on getting to profitability. Also at some point there is a healthcare deal to be done and Cogstate (the only real competitor)did a deal with Eisai for a minimum of US$ 45 million over 10 years. I think that sets the benchmark for what a deal may look like.

[energeticbacker] 24/3/2021 10:10

Investor's Champion comments:

The current c£25m valuation (share price 80p - previously 74p), equivalent to only 3.7x historic sales, does not appear to reflect the considerable amount of intellectual property it has accumulated over the past 30 years, supported by thousands of peer-reviewed publications.

[40 fathoms] 23/3/2021 07:19

Cracking results and outlook. And as they predicted profitable in the 4th quarter. Will only raise cash for bolt on acquisitions. There is a very long runway in this name. Will get some of the granular details at the presentation later today. Well done to the management team.

[sharesoc] 15/3/2021 14:22

In case you missed our webinar with Cambridge Cognition the recording and stockopedia report can be found here:
To access the recording, you'll need to be a full member of ShareSoc, which is a not-for-profit organisation that supports individual shareholders and campaigns for shareholder rights. If you're not already a member you can join here: hxxps://www.sharesoc.org/membership/
Once you've joined, you'll receive an invitation to register for our "members network" private social network, from where you'll be able to access the recording (and recordings/reports on 100s of other meetings). If you're already a member and have any difficulty accessing the report, please do not hesitate to contact us here: hxxps://www.sharesoc.org/contact-us/

[donald pond] 24/2/2021 18:17

I hosted the sharesoc webinar this evening and found it really interesting. Recommend anyone looking at this company check it out at the ShareSoc website

[sharesoc] 19/2/2021 08:40

We are hosting a webinar with Cambridge Cognition which may be of interest for current shareholders or potential investors:

Matthew Stork – Chief Executive Officer will be presenting.

[thaiger] 07/2/2021 18:35

The spread on this share is abnormally wide....must have put lot of people off!

[energeticbacker] 05/2/2021 16:16

Investor's Champion published today an in-depth analysis of COG including background, competitors, financials, valuation and more.

[40 fathoms] 29/1/2021 14:51

It will not be quiet for too long. The FDA have just taken the unusual step of extending the PDUFA date for the approval of Aducanumab by 3 months after requesting more analysis and data. This is not something you would do, especially after the ADCOM feedback, if you intended to issue a complete response letter. With Aducanumab approved and with promising results from Lilly, Shanghai Green Valley and Grifols on the horizon one way or another we are going to get a diseases modifying drug and when we do Cognitive testing is going to be become ubiquitous for the over 60s.

[igbertsponk] 27/1/2021 15:38

Shh... just bumping the thread up my list. It's lovely and quiet.

[40 fathoms] 19/1/2021 07:27

Very nice trading update and it looks like they were indeed profitable in Q4, as they had previously forecast. We should be looking at a maiden year of profitability in 2021. Particularly pleased to see the order backlog increase so meaningfully, long may it continue.

[40 fathoms] 13/1/2021 23:39

Not a chance Cogstate are involved in my view. You go to Cogstate for an excellent commercial/commodity type offering. You go to COG for complex/bespoke research projects exploring leading edge ideas that require analysis and insight. With this large, multi-year, research driven project, COG would be the only commercial group qualified in my view. The reason I suspect COG are involved can be seen from looking at the linkedin page of Biogen's Matt Hobbs, who moved across from COG last year.

With no disrespect intended to the excellent scientific team at Cogstate, when it comes to innovation they are not a patch on the COG team (Pam Ventola is a possible exception). For example COG are still researching their voice based products and are probably still at least 24 months away from having a validated product, COG are already in the market and getting paid with their voice project. If we move on to other aspects such as wareables, social cognition, digital phenotyping etc, COG are so far ahead of Cogstate it is not even really open for debate. Where Cogstate are (have been) much stronger than COG is with commercialisation and they continue to do an excellent job at that. However their commercial focus also means they only purse areas where they can get paid at scale rather than one off bespoke projects.

[mm84] 13/1/2021 19:07

Well, I don't see it that way. Biogen is partners with Eisai. Eisai owns 7% of Cogstate. On top of that, Eisai just bought the rights for Cogstate's technology on the Healthcare segment (not clinical trials). I'm not sure if this study would be included on the Healthcare segment or not (likely not), but if it would, I would guess that Eisai is right now pushing for Cogstate to be the partner, right?

[40 fathoms] 13/1/2021 11:03

Biogen, Apple to launch virtual study on cognitive decline
The research project will be conducted using the Apple Watch and iPhone, and is set to begin during 2021.

COG lead the world in this area digital wearables and are the only ones I know off who have previously used apple watches in trials to measure cognition. I reckon there has to be a very good chance that they are involved in this project.